[70kgman]

FAQ

1. What do you cap?

NBA and NCAAB totals only. They are my specialty.

2. How do you cap the games?

You can call it a system, or a mathematical method of capping. Either way, it is an original concept that I am sure is different than any mathematical capping style anyone else uses. It mainly relies on short term trends in both teams game play rather than season averages.

3. How many units are each play?

I play every game "to win" 1 unit each. My strength of play filters are still in the experimental/tracking phase. I don't chase, or need to use the tout trick of making every play a multiple unit play to make my stats appear better then they really are.

4. When will you post your plays?

I make all my wagers (when available) on the overnight line. I am very good at beating closing lines and this gives me max value on my plays. I will try to post my plays overnight on here if I can so you can try to get them at the same number.

5. How many plays a week do you make?

I cant really answer that right now. Last season I would only come across a few plays a week on average that met my criteria for a play. I have made some modifications to my parameters this season to increase the amount of plays and I am not really sure how many plays it will produce just yet.

6. The line has moved to X number, should I still play it?

I am just going to leave this up to your own discretion.

7. How have you done with these plays in the past?

I have always kept disposable record keeping only for myself. So I don't have any official numbers I can give out, though I do remember off the top of my head I was just over 60% last season with my NBA totals, and that was with a lot of bad beats. I recall having six under wagers foiled by over time, with the flip side of that scenario only helping me one time.

8. Other?

I have spent literally hundreds of hours creating and tweaking my math model for these plays, and I am confident my plays will do well, but as always, tail at your own risk.

[70kgman]

My first play of the season...

11/3

Dallas / Denver Under 206

[70kgman]

11/4

Pass

-----------------

YTD:
1-0 (+1.00 units)

[SiMON2g]

11/4

Pass

-----------------

YTD:
1-0 (+1.00 units)

Good job last night, way to start the season on a winning side! I shall keep in view with this thread, you're methods seem interesting.

[daddyv]

wtz ur previous record mate???

[70kgman]

wtz ur previous record mate???

Added that question to the FAQ.

[70kgman]

11/5

Milwaukee / Indiana Under 194

----------------

YTD:
1-0 (+1.00 units)

[Nookx]

Thanks for starting this thread man. Look forward to following you! GL

[70kgman]

1-0 tonight.

Line movement was a bit strange on that one. It skyrocketed in the opposite direction from 194 to 197.5. Game ended at 184, which is basically right where I had it projected to go.

I will post tomorrow's play(s) after the late games end.

[70kgman]

11/6

Cleveland / Washington Over 192

----------------

YTD:
2-0 (+2.00 units)

[70kgman]

Just bumping to give anyone who cares a chance to see the play. The thread got buried a couple pages back overnight.

[Nookx]

Thanks 70KGman. I cashed on your first pick also. Gonna play the over in the cleveland game as well. Good luck tonight!

EDIT: The line has moved to 194 is this still a play?

[70kgman]

EDIT: The line has moved to 194 is this still a play?

I would still play it at that number. But it is your call.

[70kgman]

Easy winner. 3-0 to start the year.

[keel44]

Please keep posting. You made me some real dough. Nice Plays.

[70kgman]

11/7

Detroit / Golden State Under 207

----------------

YTD:
3-0 (+3.00 units)

[70kgman]

Another winner. Still perfect on the season. I have one play for tomorrow. I will post it later tonight.

[Nookx]

Good job dude /Cheers

[70kgman]

11/8

Golden State / Toronto Under 216.5

----------------

YTD:
4-0 (+4.00 units)

[70kgman]

Just bumping to give people a chance to see the play. Thread got buried pages back overnight.

[Nookx]

Its down to 214.5... How low is this still a play?

[70kgman]

Its down to 214.5... How low is this still a play?

With the way I cap I don't really have an exact cutoff point like a lot of other math cappers would, but I would say it still has good value at 214 or higher.

[Geschwindigkeit]

Thanks and best of luck!

[Fletch33]

Looking great so far!

[70kgman]

Another winner to keep my winning percentage at 100%.

I am thinking about running my same math model for 1st half lines (just with my final parameters cut in half) as well. In theory, I don't really see why it wouldn't be just as effective as my full game system.

[Nookx]

Nice job so far man. Been following your thread here. Keep up the good work

[h3da]

good job so far mate..100%! holy shiet

[rochestertitans]

Play 2maro?

[Pauulzcappin]

Just stumbled across this thread and threw you some points for the good job.

[70kgman]

Just stumbled across this thread and threw you some points for the good job.

thanks.

[70kgman]

11/9

Denver / Indiana Under 209.5

----------------

YTD:
5-0 (+5.00 units)

[70kgman]

So, like I mentioned...I am going to start running a 1st half version of my math model, in theory it should pan out just as well as my full game model for finding value. I will keep track of those separately in this thread.

11/9 - 1st half plays:

Detroit / Portland Under 96

LA Clippers / New Orleans Under 98.5

[70kgman]

First loss tonight. Guess Denver decided to not play defense tonight. Most games do not have lines up yet, I will post my card tomorrow when they are. I can tell you now that HOU/WAS over 212.5 will be one of them. That line is available now. Pretty sure a few others will qualify tomorrow as well once the lines come out.

[Geschwindigkeit]

Indiana scored 54 points (on 20-21 shooting) only in the third quarter man, that was a once in a decade game.
Anyway, thanks for the advices and best of luck tomorrow.

[Nookx]

Well looks like we went 0-1 on game totals and 1-1 for 1st half's. I really like the first half picks especially the one that ended up loosing with portland/Detroit. I mean to come out like they did is very unlikely and I think that was definitely a +Ev play. Look forward to tomorrows plays.