[alien296]

Now I know this is my first official post here, but I have been following this board for a while now and thought I would finally take the time to get involved myself. So here goes....

I have seen a lot of people talking about how strong Orlando looks and how it may be a coin toss since the Heat are at home....so what about OVER 186. This seems rather strong to me for the following reasons:

1. Vegasinsider has 100% of early $ on the OVER.
2. Last 4 games Orlando has scored: 112, 101, 102, 105.
3. Heat should start to bring it together and will probably step it up-->score more first home game.( Last 4 have been 97, 80, 89, 96).

The math here adds up to OVER 186 and that doesn't take into consideration that Miami will most likely be amped in front of their home crowd.

What are your thoughts about this? I know my analysis is not that in depth, but I am trying to learn better ways to cap games so any feedback would be helpful...looking forward to this board.

[demens]

I would look at this game as a play-off game and scoring is lower in the play-offs. Not sure what you are counting as "last 4 games" if you are including pre-season in that you need to stop.

186 seems fairly low though. Quick look at Orls scoring 186+ in the play-offs its 16-8 vs good defensive teams the last 2 years. That drops to 5-7 on the road.

I think the better bet is Orl +4. Everyone is treating the Heat like the best team in the league and they are NOT.

[Sawyer]

Take advantage of Inflated Miami Heat, early in the season.

[alien296]

Thanks demens and Sawyer for your help...I can only get +3 with Orlando tonight (I use 5dimes...), but I might be able to buy a point or two tomorrow depending on the line.

I appreciate the input though.

[Pauulzcappin]

This line would be pretty accurate mid-season, when Heat will be playing good basketball and all pieces will be together.

Howard is gonna have a great game tomorrow, I think MAgic wins SU.

[Mikail]

Like Magic + the points. As Sawyer said take advantage of the inflated lines of the Heat. I am only betting fraction units in NBA now but that's my opinion.

[demens]

This line would be pretty accurate mid-season, when Heat will be playing good basketball and all pieces will be together.

Howard is gonna have a great game tomorrow, I think MAgic wins SU.

Thats what i'm thinking. Heat will be one of the best teams this year, but this 70wins before they even play a game crap has them very overrated imo. They will take some loses early in the season vs the great teams.

1 of my 1st bets was Heat will have the best record in the league at the all-star break NO +130.

[lunchbawks]

This game is 100% unpredictable

Don't be a sucker, much better games on tomorrow's card.

[Pauulzcappin]

yes, like fading raptors

kidding bawks

[demens]

This game is 100% unpredictable

Don't be a sucker, much better games on tomorrow's card.

Like what?

[lunchbawks]

yes, like fading raptors

kidding bawks

it's going to be a looong season for raptor fans.

i think the raps lose again tomorrow

[alien296]

yes, like fading raptors

kidding bawks

Funny thing is I was actually considering this one too...Cavs look strong (beating Boston)...they have a chance to take this one...(sorry bawks)

To be honest, I don't want to bet a bunch of games tomorrow, just one or two I feel most confident about. This strategy has worked for me in the past (but I primarily did MLB....I assume it would work for NBA too?

[Pauulzcappin]

Funny thing is I was actually considering this one too...Cavs look strong (beating Boston)...they have a chance to take this one...(sorry bawks) To be honest, I don't want to bet a bunch of games tomorrow, just one or two I feel most confident about. This strategy has worked for me in the past (but I primarily did MLB....I assume it would work for NBA too?

It's all up to the style you adequate best to. Some people prefer to play a lot of games with the daily grind and do fine with it. Others like to pick 1-2 games in a 10ish-game card and play those on bigger units.

[lunchbawks]

Funny thing is I was actually considering this one too...Cavs look strong (beating Boston)...they have a chance to take this one...(sorry bawks)

To be honest, I don't want to bet a bunch of games tomorrow, just one or two I feel most confident about. This strategy has worked for me in the past (but I primarily did MLB....I assume it would work for NBA too?

don't be sorry, i know the reality of toronto's squad this season. i put myself in positions to get money, and if fading the home team raptors gets money, i am in.

gun to my head :

orlando ML

[Pauulzcappin]

it's going to be a looong season for raptor fans. i think the raps lose again tomorrow

Whenever Raps face a team with a good PG (Jack runs all over the floor) and a good C (Bargs can shoot 3's but he's very soft on D), they are gonna most likely run into a lot of trouble.

[demens]

Despite the impressive win over Boston, i'm gonna need to see more from the Cavs before i reconsider them being one of the worst teams in the league. Playing another team just as bad makes it too close to call imo.

[artist]

If you could cap one game a night you be good for a very long time! That's winning every night! I like this game to go under as you know Orlando play D and that's what's the east is about defense!!!! Laker and oka play defense also in the west same as spurs. I don't think Mia or Orlando wanna do a shoot out I'm just hoping this game don't get dictated by the ref!!!!! So much games that have stupid fouls and lame tech!!! Now as side goes imma roll with Orlando even tho they play back to back! They're to much for the heat right now I see nelson having a big game!!!!

[demens]

Might not be the best reason, but so far all 3 b2b teams have lost. Thats gotta change right?

[alien296]

Might not be the best reason, but so far all 3 b2b teams have lost. Thats gotta change right?

I agree that streaks have to end...and plus since Orlando gave a beating and rested 4th q....I don't think its a true B2B, and also it isn't like they were the late game tonight....still think they have enough rest for this big game. They are a great team and will surely step it up as they know this is a huge game that has been built up for a while....

from yahoo sports http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/preview?gid=2010102914

“Honestly, I’m sick of listening every hour about Miami - Miami that, how great they are, how big they are, what kind of record they gonna have,”’ said backup center Marcin Gortat(notes). “I get every day interviews back in Poland, people calling me about Miami, Miami, what you think about Miami? What you think about Big Three? I’m going to say the same thing: they are a great team, they have three superstars, they got a couple good role players on the team.

“They looking good on the paper, but they got to start winning.”

Orlando knows this is a big game and I think they will come out strong and not take the Heat lightly.

[TylerDurden]

Might not be the best reason, but so far all 3 b2b teams have lost. Thats gotta change right?

blazers won last night vs the clips after beating the suns on opening night.

[demens]

blazers won last night vs the clips after beating the suns on opening night.

Ehh, yeah, forgot about that one. Make it 1-3. But the 3 loses were by teams that are better (on paper at least) Celts, Houston, Utah.