John Morrison 2011-12 NBA Thread

[stevex]

Best of luck tonight fellas. I'm loving another year of the labby money management with JM and SBP NBA!!

Get that money...

[Swan4brownlow]

Yes and no. He will be betting to win 4.1 units ATS (@ odds of -110) on each of the 2 B Bets, from which he will deduct the lost 1.1 units from the 2 lost A Bets, thus producing a nett profit of 3 units from each chase.

Thanks for both your replies Kev. Not sure whether I'm going to follow Wallco's strategy or try use the labby. I've got a bankroll of 1000 so if I follow Wallco I'll use $10 units which should be pretty safe going by what's been said...

[GGPLAYER]

Checking in

[Wallco99]

I will do the 98-99 shortened season next.

[Wallco99]

Here are the results of my backtest for the 2010-11 season, playing JM NBA using the 1-3-5 bet scheme. For some reason I have two extra v1 plays then krzychu78 had in his final results. He may not have counted a few of those v1 plays that started after a series started in conference and games were lost by 3 points or more. Also, I play the system slightly differently than the rules state. Any time there is a push, I carry the bet to the next game, JM says to stop. This happened on three different occasions last season. I will post other season's results as I finish them, but for now, here is last year's results:

v1 system (58-4)
(A) 32-30
(B) 19-11
(C) 7-4
Tot. units: +53.88

v2 system (30-1)
(A) 14-17
(B) 9-8
(C) 7-1
Tot. units: +59.72

v3 system (65-5)
(A) 37-33
(B) 21-12
(C) 7-5
Tot. units: +48.60

Grand Total: 153-10 (+162.2 units)

83 - (A) bet wins @ 1 unit profit = +83 units
49 - (B) bet wins @ 3 units profit = +147 units
21 - (C) bet wins @ 5 units profit = +105 units profit

10 losses @ 17.28 units = (-172.8 units)

Total for winsw = +335 units
Total for losses = -172.8 units
wwwwTotalllllll= +162.2 units

[Bugs Bunny]

let's get charlotte and houston done today!!!

[thelimit0310]

Thanks Wallco! Look forward to seeing the results of a shortened season like this one. Another thing you may want to look at is 2005-2006, the V3 system lost a record 7 times that year and was definitely a losing season overall because of it. That season had 10 losses overall, and it looks like your method may have the power to turn that season into + units. Just food for thought.

Hope to see the rest of the results soon, thanks for the good work!

[adidas-b 88]

if Charlotte lost this bad to Cleveland, is any one going to touch Charlotte/New York Knicks series??

[ChiLLx]

I was just thinking the same thing. The Knicks are really struggling though if that gives any hope, and Amare might not be in.

[Swan4brownlow]

not looking good for the bucks

[ChiLLx]

Ya Bogut was out but I didn't see before I placed it. I guess that counts as the best player out filter.

[sthrncross]

checking in

[TRE1968]

Here are the results of my backtest for the 2010-11 season, playing JM NBA using the 1-3-5 bet scheme. For some reason I have two extra v1 plays then krzychu78 had in his final results. He may not have counted a few of those v1 plays that started after a series started in conference and games were lost by 3 points or more. Also, I play the system slightly differently than the rules state. Any time there is a push, I carry the bet to the next game, JM says to stop. This happened on three different occasions last season. I will post other season's results as I finish them, but for now, here is last year's results:

v1 system (58-4)
(A) 32-30
(B) 19-11
(C) 7-4
Tot. units: +53.88

v2 system (30-1)
(A) 14-17
(B) 9-8
(C) 7-1
Tot. units: +59.72

v3 system (65-5)
(A) 37-33
(B) 21-12
(C) 7-5
Tot. units: +48.60

Grand Total: 153-10 (+162.2 units)

83 - (A) bet wins @ 1 unit profit = +83 units
49 - (B) bet wins @ 3 units profit = +147 units
21 - (C) bet wins @ 5 units profit = +105 units profit

10 losses @ 17.28 units = (-172.8 units)

Total for winsw = +335 units
Total for losses = -172.8 units
wwwwTotalllllll= +162.2 units

are these records without 3 point buy

[juice050]

i hate betting against my ny teams in any sport smh, but i have to on this occcassion. i saw early lines and bobcats opened at +12.5.

[Wallco99]

Wallco NBA Chase 110
2011-12 System to date: 3-0 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: +3.00 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 0

v1 Plays
(A) 2-1
(B) 1-0
(C) -
(D) -

V2 Plays
In production


Games for (1/4/12):
#4 Charlotte (+12½) @ N.Y. Knicks (A) (7:35 pm EST)


We will ALWAYS play the M/L on favorites and the point spread (-110) on dogs. There is no point buying in this system, with one exception, if your team is the favorite, and buying down to a zero point spread is cheaper than playing the M/L, then by all means, buy the points, otherwise, M/L on all favorites and point spread on dogs. All results will be based on this principle. All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team, and who is the favorite on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines. I will try to update my post as often as I can throughout the day, if the lines change, but it is the individual bettor’s responsibility to get the appropriate line if it differs from my post. On occasion, we will have plays that go head-head. The system will grade ALL bets, regardless of opponents, how you wish to play these games is your choice.

[Swan4brownlow]

any news on whether Amare will be playing or not??

[Wallco99]

Thanks Wallco! Look forward to seeing the results of a shortened season like this one. Another thing you may want to look at is 2005-2006, the V3 system lost a record 7 times that year and was definitely a losing season overall because of it. That season had 10 losses overall, and it looks like your method may have the power to turn that season into + units. Just food for thought.

Hope to see the rest of the results soon, thanks for the good work!

2009-10 season for 1-3-5 method produced +88.36 units. I am having trouble with 1998-99 season. A lot of the lines aren't available for the games I need. It doesn't look like a good season though.

[Wallco99]

are these records without 3 point buy

No three points.

[bisturis]

guys im done. I believe the last three bets of the day cleared the labby line, so there are no #s left. If someone wants to pick up where I left off they are more then welcome to do so. Should be +11 units where I left off. Who ever wants to take over with my post can do so. I wont have any time for sports betting due to work with a lot of family stuff going on as well. Sports betting is not really worth the time right now with a small bankroll. I need to focus on other things. I'll stop in once in a great while to see whats going on and see if Wallco's strategy with 1-3-5 works for next season. Hopefully with all the work im putting in I will have a really nice bankroll by then and no more $10 unit size. Good Luck to All rest of the season. Special thanks to Wallco and Thelimit0310 for all the help and post with the updated records of everything --JMD

JM, thanks for all your help. Hope everything turns out ok with your family. I'll miss reading your labby updates

[Swan4brownlow]

Locked in Charlotte +11.5. Just hope they don't stink it up on the second night of the b2b

[thelimit0310]

2009-10 season for 1-3-5 method produced +88.36 units. I am having trouble with 1998-99 season. A lot of the lines aren't available for the games I need. It doesn't look like a good season though.

It must have been V2 or V3 that put it down, I'm sure V1 did a good job though as it was undefeated that year. Can't wait to see the next set of results Wallco, thanks

[thelimit0310]

Charlotte a play for both systems! Maybe there is hope after all!

[sthrncross]

Deleted

[thelimit0310]

JM January 3

V3 HOUSTON +10 @ LA Lakers (A) WIN
V3 CHARLOTTE +7 @ Cleveland (B) LOSS

*Unofficial* V1 MILWAUKEE +3 @ Utah (B) LOSS

RESULTS PER VERSION

Version 1
A: 2-2
B: 0-2
C: 2-0

Version 2
A: 0-0
B: 0-0
C: 0-0

Version 3
A: 2-6
B: 4-1
C: 0-0

Totals
A: 4-8
B: 4-3
C: 2-0

Houston won officially, but people not buying 3 points did not win. So, Houston will become and unofficial B bet.

[adidas-b 88]

any news on whether Amare will be playing or not??

Yeah unfortunately on cbssports and espn, they are stating he is probable for tomm's game vs charlotte

[Wilba]

Not Wallco but Wilba idea.....

Wilba said join the serie on bet B with aim of winning 3 points but if fail to win B then goto C game with aim of winning 5 points but you must buy points......

Wilba test it for several seasons more profitable than usual way...

Thanks for the credit lawalahmed - you are basically right - Wallco has taken my backtest proved idea and very slightly modified it to call it his own. Wallco I can save you the backtesting and tell you now that the way you are suggested (net 1/3/5 units for A/B/C) is well more profitable than playing to win net 1/1/1 unit on A/B/C. No need to backtest it yourself I spent hours explaining it in last years thread.

What you are suggesting is exactly the same as what I already proved in last years thread (all documented, feel free to check if you don't believe me) but the only difference in 'your' model is that you are adding playing to win 1 unit on A bet (which nets 0 units over 10 seasons - you don't lose money but don't gain money either) and instead of playing to win net 3 units on B and C like I said to, you are playing to win 3/5 units on B/C. So exactly the same except you are weighting the C bets even more heavily than I was
Just look up last years thread and save yourself the wasted time backtesting.

[Wilba]

Does anyone have krzychu78's final results from last season. I want to compare the backtest I just did to his to make sure I didn't miss any series. The 1,3,5 looks pretty damn awesome for last year's results.

The "1,3,5" system, as you call it, vastly outperforms the traditional method EVERY season, not just last season. Again, save yourself the time and just look up my marathon posts from last year when I went to great trouble to explain why it was well worth putting considerably more value on the exponentially higher winning % B, then C bets in the JM NBA system...

I gave a very detailed 10 year backtest result showing all this in last years thread

[Wilba]

It must have been V2 or V3 that put it down, I'm sure V1 did a good job though as it was undefeated that year. Can't wait to see the next set of results Wallco, thanks

Weightings on V1 should always be higher than weightings for V2. Similarly, your betting to win unit amount should be more for V2 than for V3.

There is a reason that the versions are labelled 1, 2, and 3. The 1, 2, and 3 reflect the systems' effectiveness...
Personally I play V3 for 4/10ths of what I play to win in V1, and V2 for 7/10ths of what I play to win in V1

[Kev the Brit]

The "1,3,5" system, as you call it, vastly outperforms the traditional method EVERY season, not just last season. Again, save yourself the time and just look up my marathon posts from last year when I went to great trouble to explain why it was well worth putting considerably more value on the exponentially higher winning % B, then C bets in the JM NBA system... I gave a very detailed 10 year backtest result showing all this in last years thread

But did that include no points buying? My understanding is that you are a supporter of points buying. Wallco's latest system is purely ATS without buying points. Thoughts?

[DustyDiamond]

Here are the results of my backtest for the 2010-11 season, playing JM NBA using the 1-3-5 bet scheme. For some reason I have two extra v1 plays then krzychu78 had in his final results. He may not have counted a few of those v1 plays that started after a series started in conference and games were lost by 3 points or more. Also, I play the system slightly differently than the rules state. Any time there is a push, I carry the bet to the next game, JM says to stop. This happened on three different occasions last season. I will post other season's results as I finish them, but for now, here is last year's results:

v1 system (58-4)
(A) 32-30
(B) 19-11
(C) 7-4
Tot. units: +53.88

v2 system (30-1)
(A) 14-17
(B) 9-8
(C) 7-1
Tot. units: +59.72

v3 system (65-5)
(A) 37-33
(B) 21-12
(C) 7-5
Tot. units: +48.60

Grand Total: 153-10 (+162.2 units)

83 - (A) bet wins @ 1 unit profit = +83 units
49 - (B) bet wins @ 3 units profit = +147 units
21 - (C) bet wins @ 5 units profit = +105 units profit

10 losses @ 17.28 units = (-172.8 units)

Total for winsw = +335 units
Total for losses = -172.8 units
wwwwTotalllllll= +162.2 units

Wallco, not sure I'm following this. For your (C) bets you are only playing for 5 units? What about the -6.8 units lost from the (A) and (B) Bets. If you only are playing for 5 units wouldn't you still be down -1.8 for the series? (based on -170 odds for 3 point buying). Maybe I'm missing something?

[Kev the Brit]

Wallco, not sure I'm following this. For your (C) bets you are only playing for 5 units? What about the -6.8 units lost from the (A) and (B) Bets. If you only are playing for 5 units wouldn't you still be down -1.8 for the series? (based on -170 odds for 3 point buying). Maybe I'm missing something?

You are, just like I did. He plays to win 5 units profit. The C bet is to win the lost A and B bets plus 5 units.

[petters72]

First I would like to say thanks to all the posts that discuss different systems, it helps me alot. Since I just jumped aboard the (hopefully) moneytrain I wonder what bet is the safest ones for today? any thought? is any bet safer than the other?
jan 4
Chicago V3
4 Memphis V3
4 Cleveland V2
I am only playing one series at a time when there are no V1 to play...
Thanks again for your time you all put into this...
Petter

[lawalahmed]

We will miss JM Displine, No money again, come back soon Son.

[thelimit0310]

The "1,3,5" system, as you call it, vastly outperforms the traditional method EVERY season, not just last season. Again, save yourself the time and just look up my marathon posts from last year when I went to great trouble to explain why it was well worth putting considerably more value on the exponentially higher winning % B, then C bets in the JM NBA system...

I gave a very detailed 10 year backtest result showing all this in last years thread

Wilba the key difference, as Kev already explained, is that in Wallco's method you do not buy points or play the ML and play all lines at -110. This makes series losses roughly half of what it would be, though it does add another loss or two throughout all versions.

Just as Kev stated I would like to hear your thoughts on this as well.

[thelimit0310]

JM January 4

V3 CHICAGO -3 @ Detroit (A)
V3 MEMPHIS +7 @ Minnesota (A)
V2 CLEVELAND +8 @ Toronto (A)
V3 CHARLOTTE +14.5 @ NY Knicks (C)
V3 GOLDEN STATE +10.5 @ San Antonio (B)

*Unofficial* V3 HOUSTON +7.5 @ LA CLippers (B)

All official plays are posted with 3 points bought. ML will not be taken on favorites greater than -3.