1. 10-15-10 10:28 AM #36
    sweetjones55
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mac4Lyfe View Post
    I'm here to make money. Why would I be bitter about that? What part of my message sounds bitter? Do you not think the East is much better this year?

    Did you really say Joel Anthony and top 5 in the same breath? The guy probably only averages about 20 mins a night and is what a 3 ppg, 3 rpg in his career?? Did you really mention JA? Is he the big man that will take the Heat over the top? Bosh is a bigger man then JA. Big Z is a better player than JA. Is JA even a starter

    Mike Miller is going to defend who every night? He's not under rated as a defender, he sucks on defense. Guy's will blow by him every night. What kind of bench will they have? Who on this team can generate offense for himself if Lebron and Wade are on the bench???

    Your last paragraph sums it up. You think a team can dominate with just a handful of superstars but you have to have quality role players as well. The Heat's role players, especially their bigs, are either very young and inexperienced or old and on their last legs. And they all are too light in the britches for the big men in the East. Is JA going to defend DHoward or Lopez or Bogut for example? No way in hell. Go back and look up Boston and Cleveland's role players and their bench. Look at how both benches could score when the stars were sitting and how both teams played defense at a high level.

    Here's the bigger issue with the Heat. All these role players are going to shrivel up in crunch time because they're not expected to make the game winning shot. Lebron and Wade will both be called upon time and time. It remains to be seen if anyone else will be able to deliver when the game is on the line.

    I hope the Heat fail miserably but my emotions don't affect my observations nor my handicapping. I think there will be a lot of value in fading the Heat the first part of the season. The lines will be inflated and they have holes on their team. I won't be surprised if they start the season 2 and 2, and be a little over 50% in the first 20 - 25 games. I will keep this thread bumped and we'll see in another month.
    Yes I most definitely mentioned Joel Anthony. The numbers don't lie my friend. Joel Anthony was ranked fourth in the league last year in 48 minutes. Our bench will not suck at all, we have Mike Miller, Udonis Haslem, James Jones (wasn't a fan but he has been playing well in preseason), Zydrunas is a decent backup center, Chalmers is a decent back up PG. You are absolutely right, these guys can not create for themselves. But luckily for the Heat they have Wade and LeBron and I gurantee that one of them will always be in when these backups are in to create opportunities for them.
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  2. 10-15-10 10:29 AM #37
    sweetjones55
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mac4Lyfe View Post
    Were you sleeping in the offseason or were you too busy nobbing on the Heat? Washington is the next OKC of the East. They have scary young talent on that team. Put there roster next to the Heat and they maybe more talented all around than the Heat. The Knicks are also much improved and won't be an easy W. Larry Brown coaching makes Charlotte a tough out as well.
    Come on are you serious??? The Wizards have zero guys on their team that will make the all star team this year. The Heat have three guys that have been making the all star team for years and will continue to make the all star team. The Heat have two players that have carried their teams to the NBA Finals, Wade winning it for the Heat. I will give you ten to one odds that the Heat have a better record than the Wizards this year. There is no way in the world you will take me up on that bet so there's no wayyy you can really actually believe they are more talented. I'll even give you fifteen to one odds if you want.
    Last edited by sweetjones55; 10-15-10 at 10:34 AM.
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  3. 10-15-10 10:35 AM #38
    sweetjones55
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    Quote Originally Posted by lakerboy View Post


    Okay SJ since thats what you thought they would do it is now

    +128 for the under 63.5 wins. Obviously the smart money has bet the under.

    Looks like i got a good line .
    Quote Originally Posted by lakerboy View Post
    SJ can you answer my question please about the line moving down to +128? You said if the books thought the under would hit it would be around +125.
    I didn't see a question from you..? If the question is if you got a good line then yes you obviously got a good line from +140 to +128 now. They are still juicing people -150 to take the OVER and giving nice + money to take the UNDER. It still seems like they don't want too much on the OVER, who wants to lay -150 especially on something that won't pay out for 7 months. Good luck on your play, it may come down to Spoelstra's willingness to play his starters prior to the playoffs.
    Last edited by sweetjones55; 10-15-10 at 10:39 AM.
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  4. 10-15-10 10:40 AM #39
    Goat Milk
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    Quote Originally Posted by lakerboy View Post
    SJ can you answer my question please about the line moving down to +128? You said if the books thought the under would hit it would be around +125.
    The line obviously moved down because of a scalp or just people playing it out of value. That doesn't mean its going to hit, and most likely will not unless some injury occurs to one of the big 3.


    Mac4Life, do you want to bet me the Bulls get swept by the Heat this year? Washington is the OKC of the East? Washington will be lucky to get an 8 seed in the East buddy. The Knicks will actually be a VERY EASY W because Lebron Wade Mello and Bryant bring career nights each time they go to MSG.

    Mac4Life do some more research.
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  5. 10-15-10 10:42 AM #40
    Goat Milk
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    everyone in this thread wants to be a Hero and say the Heat won't be very good
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  6. 10-15-10 09:22 PM #41
    Ricki Roma
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    Miami will defintley win more then 63 games closer to 73 games if anything
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  7. 10-15-10 10:36 PM #42
    lakerboy
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    Quote Originally Posted by Goat Milk View Post
    everyone in this thread wants to be a Hero and say the Heat won't be very good

    I never said the HEat wont be good, thats obvious. I said they wont win more than 63 games. YOu want to be the hero by saying the heat will be great. Are you going out on a limb?
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  8. 10-15-10 11:01 PM #43
    makemerich
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    i heat the heats i hope lebron doesnt get rings or another mvp
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  9. 10-15-10 11:15 PM #44
    HustleGetPaid
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    Ten days until tip-off, but who's counting...
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  10. 10-16-10 02:34 AM #45
    bryant81
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    Quote Originally Posted by lakerboy View Post
    I never said the HEat wont be good, thats obvious. I said they wont win more than 63 games. YOu want to be the hero by saying the heat will be great. Are you going out on a limb?
    Hey lb, you ever consider creating a twitter account to post your plays? I think that would make it easier for you and for everyone following you. Just a suggestion.
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  11. 10-16-10 03:08 AM #46
    Defuzas
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    It's very hard to realise, what really Heats are with its 3 top scorers, coz in pre season games, they dont revealed. Coming soon, we will see..
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  12. 10-16-10 03:26 AM #47
    jollyoscars
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    heat will be lucky to get 45 wins. karma will bite them in the butt and all their "stars" will get hurt
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  13. 10-16-10 03:58 AM #48
    necro
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    lol @karma, they will win around 60 games and win championship
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  14. 10-16-10 05:04 AM #49
    arvsmalta
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    My NBA . :) Where amazing happens.

    My NBA . Where amazing happens.
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  15. 10-16-10 08:25 AM #50
    Ricki Roma
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    Quote Originally Posted by lakerboy View Post
    I never said the HEat wont be good, thats obvious. I said they wont win more than 63 games. YOu want to be the hero by saying the heat will be great. Are you going out on a limb?
    miami will win closer to 70 games. Take off your laker goggles buddy
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  16. 10-16-10 12:17 PM #51
    Bradyd
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    If they break the 72-10 Bulls record, this would be the year to do it. They would be no need for them to even attempt it after this year because championship caliber teams know that the real season begins in the playoffs. However, given the fact that they havent played with Wade all preseason, the team being overly careful with their big stars minor injuries, and the fact that they will get each team's best shot, I don't think they will even beat the 2008 Boston 66-16 record, much less challenge the Bulls best record. Remember when Boston won the title in 2008, they didn't have 2 championship calibers teams to play in the East as Miami does... Granted Boston never had the big 3 in their prime, it still doesn't make up for the fact that Miami has their work cut out for them.
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  17. 10-16-10 10:19 PM #52
    lakerboy
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ricki Roma View Post
    miami will win closer to 70 games. Take off your laker goggles buddy
    Okay thanks pal. I am glad you came to this site to save me. LAker goggles
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  18. 10-17-10 12:46 PM #53
    ojs69
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    I see what u mean LB
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  19. 10-18-10 03:43 PM #54
    lyon804
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    LB, was trying to have a class on odds and probabilties and some of you missed it. Some think it is all about the basketball. Who cares if the Heat have a 75% chance to win 64 games. If the odds dictate it is 77% you have lossed regardless of the outcome. He bet a better number based on public perception and has already won the wager regardless of the outcome this season. You make enough plays like this you are considered sharp.
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  20. 10-18-10 04:16 PM #55
    lakerboy
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    Thanks Lyon. The thing on this site is that most want to predict events and i keep telling people that isnt gonna work long term so just play the odds.

    BTW its +121 now on the under and -142 on the over. Someone mentioned something about scalping this line but i have kept a daily check on this line and the opportunity to scalp it never existed.
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  21. 10-18-10 05:23 PM #56
    scratbandit
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    I definitely like the under in this one also..
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  22. 10-24-10 08:17 PM #57
    sweetjones55
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    TheGreek now has the Heat O/U season wins at 64.5. I have seen quite a few places raising this prop up now. 5Dimes has the OVER 64 -115.
    Last edited by sweetjones55; 10-24-10 at 08:20 PM.
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  23. 10-24-10 08:40 PM #58
    Mac4Lyfe
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ricki Roma View Post
    miami will win closer to 70 games. Take off your laker goggles buddy
    You need to take off any glasses that you wear... 70? Are you nuts?

    Miami will be lucky to break 62 or 63. I say they will go more like 55 - 27. Too many quality teams out there and Miami's bench sucks no matter what some of you think. Who's going to guard the bigs in the league every other night? Bosh? he's way too soft folks. Oh, I forgot... Joel Anthony
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  24. 10-24-10 09:18 PM #59
    mlb
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    From awhile ago but that line is not trappy ... The over is trappy
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  25. 10-24-10 09:34 PM #60
    Jasonal_98
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    I actually wrote about this total today. Totally agree that it is way too high.

    http://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting+arti...r-64-wins.aspx
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  26. 10-24-10 11:38 PM #61
    lakerboy
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    Pinny still has 63.5.


    The under is now +101. The over is -118. Looks like i made a good bet win or lose.
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  27. 10-24-10 11:58 PM #62
    Pauulzcappin
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    LB, heat are gonna get smoked tomorrow.
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  28. 10-25-10 12:06 AM #63
    lakerboy
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pauulzcappin View Post
    LB, heat are gonna get smoked tomorrow.

    Looking forward to the game but i doubt i bet the game. Personally i think the Heat win .
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  29. 10-25-10 05:14 AM #64
    sweethook
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    thats long time for book have your money
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  30. 10-26-10 01:11 AM #65
    lakerboy
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    Atlanta Hawks regular season wins601 Over46.5 wins +100 602 Under46.5 wins -117
    Tue 10/26Boston Celtics regular season wins05:00 PM603 Over55.5 wins +158 604 Under55.5 wins -186
    Tue 10/26Cleveland Cavaliers regular season wins05:00 PM609 Over32.5 wins +139 610 Under32.5 wins -163
    Tue 10/26Dallas Mavericks regular season wins05:00 PM611 Over49.5 wins -107 612 Under49.5 wins -109
    Tue 10/26Detroit Pistons regular season wins05:00 PM615 Over32.5 wins +131 616 Under32.5 wins -154
    Tue 10/26Golden State Warriors regular season wins05:00 PM617 Over30.5 wins -164 618 Under30.5 wins +140
    Tue 10/26Houston Rockets regular season wins05:00 PM619 Over48.5 wins +111 620 Under48.5 wins -130
    Tue 10/26Indiana Pacers regular season wins05:00 PM621 Over33.5 wins -122 622 Under33.5 wins +105
    Tue 10/26Los Angeles Clippers regular season wins05:00 PM623 Over38.5 wins +160 624 Under38.5 wins -189
    Tue 10/26Los Angeles Lakers regular season wins05:00 PM625 Over56.5 wins -102 626 Under56.5 wins -114
    Tue 10/26Memphis Grizzlies regular season wins05:00 PM627 Over39.5 wins +141 628 Under39.5 wins -166
    Tue 10/26Miami Heat regular season wins05:00 PM629 Over63.5 wins -129 630 Under63.5 wins +110
    Tue 10/26Milwaukee Bucks regular season wins05:00 PM631 Over42.5 wins -217 632 Under42.5 wins +183
    Tue 10/26Minnesota Timberwolves regular season wins05:00 PM633 Over22.5 wins -105 634 Under22.5 wins -111
    Tue 10/26New Jersey Nets regular season wins05:00 PM635 Over24.5 wins -137 636 Under24.5 wins +117
    Tue 10/26New Orleans Hornets regular season wins05:00 PM637 Over41.5 wins -102 638 Under41.5 wins -114
    Tue 10/26Oklahoma City Thunder regular season wins05:00 PM641 Over50.5 wins -145 642 Under50.5 wins +124
    Tue 10/26Orlando Magic regular season wins05:00 PM643 Over54.5 wins -174 644 Under54.5 wins +148
    Tue 10/26Philadelphia 76ers regular season wins05:00 PM645 Over34.5 wins -109 646 Under34.5 wins -107
    Tue 10/26Phoenix Suns regular season wins05:00 PM647 Over41.5 wins +118 648 Under41.5 wins -138
    Tue 10/26Portland Trailblazers regular season wins05:00 PM649 Over49.5 wins -178 650 Under49.5 wins +151
    Tue 10/26Sacramento Kings regular season wins05:00 PM651 Over25.5 wins -163 652 Under25.5 wins +139

    Tue 10/26San Antonio Spurs regular season wins05:00 PM651 Over48.5 wins -157 652 Under48.5 wins +134
    Tue 10/26Toronto Raptors regular season wins05:00 PM653 Over28.5 wins +133 654 Under28.5 wins -156
    Tue 10/26Utah Jazz regular season wins05:00 PM655 Over49.5 wins -105 656 Under49.5 wins -111
    Tue 10/26Washington Wizards regular season wins05:00 PM657 Over32.5 wins -109 658 Under32.5 wins -107
    Last edited by lakerboy; 10-26-10 at 01:15 AM.
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  31. 10-26-10 01:24 AM #66
    head_strong
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snowball View Post
    no reason to wait 8 months for a return, it's not value.
    exactly...
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  32. 10-26-10 04:50 AM #67
    Greekbet
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    Miami-boston
    The game is hard to predict cause it's season opener,Celtics defensive is capable to stop Heat's James, Wade and Bosh. Also note that Wade is coming after injury.
    @Boston to win.
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  33. 10-26-10 08:15 AM #68
    jgiun1
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    I will bet you 200-300 points that they go over that total LB......WANNA TAKE IT ???? Good to see you again brother....looking forward to a full season here.........BOL
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  34. 10-26-10 08:18 AM #69
    rthoughton
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    Wade misses almost 20% of his starts. One injury and this team is mediocre at best. I like this play for the money.
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  35. 10-26-10 10:35 AM #70
    cashil
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    Too close to call for me and I dont like long term investments like this anyway :/ GL all
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