Howdy howdy. I had a system thread a while ago, but I follow a different system now... which is a complex mixture of my brain, dumb luck, a coin flip, and a bag of nachos. Plus, this helps me keep track of my failures with pinpoint accuracy.
Saturday Thoughts
Grizzlies: I like to follow the helpful betting advice of "Cap your games 5 days in advance, then come back it and make slight alterations for injuries the day of the game." This helps you to keep from getting too hung up on recent performances. The world will assume the Pacers are now a Chicago beating caliber team, completely disregarding the fact that the Pacers also lost to the Raptors just 5 games prior.
As such, I would love to bet on the Grizzlies at home here, but the line is a tad overblown for me. I generally only bet favorites if the line is between -3 and -7. This keeps me away from coin flip games (-1's and -2's) and keeps me away from double digit favorites, which is always a terrible bet.
I can't work a parlay or teaser to my liking, so I'm passing on this game.
Portland: IMO, 2 evenly matched teams, except the Blazers are just as good at home as the 76ers are terrible on the road. And with Iguodala out, I would love to bet Portland on this one. But unfortunately, I can't pull the trigger on -6.5. I'm thinking with 2 decent defenses, it will end up being like a 95-90 game.
So onto my...
Saturday Picks



Pick: Hornets +5 / Under 180 Parlay
For those of you going "Huh?" I like to play Teasers and adjust the line by 3 points or so, and I end up essentially getting 3 point teasers for +160 or so payout.
The Reasoning:
-the last 3 road games for the Celtics have been losses to non-elite teams (Rockets, Nets, and 76ers).
-Celtics are on a B2B against a well rested Hornets and Rondo has been in a slump
-as far as the Total goes, in order for the game to go Over, either both teams would have to score around 90+ or one team would have to have a breakout 100+ game. And since every team that plays Boston ends up with around 85 points and Boston's last 3 road scores have been 77, 79, and 86... Under seems like the smart bet.
Let's get a first post win, or else I'll lose confidence and start whoring myself on street corners for bits of string.
Saturday Thoughts
Grizzlies: I like to follow the helpful betting advice of "Cap your games 5 days in advance, then come back it and make slight alterations for injuries the day of the game." This helps you to keep from getting too hung up on recent performances. The world will assume the Pacers are now a Chicago beating caliber team, completely disregarding the fact that the Pacers also lost to the Raptors just 5 games prior.
As such, I would love to bet on the Grizzlies at home here, but the line is a tad overblown for me. I generally only bet favorites if the line is between -3 and -7. This keeps me away from coin flip games (-1's and -2's) and keeps me away from double digit favorites, which is always a terrible bet.
I can't work a parlay or teaser to my liking, so I'm passing on this game.
Portland: IMO, 2 evenly matched teams, except the Blazers are just as good at home as the 76ers are terrible on the road. And with Iguodala out, I would love to bet Portland on this one. But unfortunately, I can't pull the trigger on -6.5. I'm thinking with 2 decent defenses, it will end up being like a 95-90 game.
So onto my...
Saturday Picks



Pick: Hornets +5 / Under 180 Parlay
For those of you going "Huh?" I like to play Teasers and adjust the line by 3 points or so, and I end up essentially getting 3 point teasers for +160 or so payout.
The Reasoning:
-the last 3 road games for the Celtics have been losses to non-elite teams (Rockets, Nets, and 76ers).
-Celtics are on a B2B against a well rested Hornets and Rondo has been in a slump
-as far as the Total goes, in order for the game to go Over, either both teams would have to score around 90+ or one team would have to have a breakout 100+ game. And since every team that plays Boston ends up with around 85 points and Boston's last 3 road scores have been 77, 79, and 86... Under seems like the smart bet.
Let's get a first post win, or else I'll lose confidence and start whoring myself on street corners for bits of string.
