Fishy lines tomorrow.

**DANO74** · 03-01-11, 01:49 AM

Magic cover

**lunchbawks** · 03-01-11, 01:59 AM

agreed lando punishes NYK tomorrow

**ParlayJunkie** · 03-01-11, 02:10 AM

Originally posted by lunchbawks

agreed lando punishes NYK tomorrow

I agree as well. Line will prob drop to -6.

**QUEST001** · 03-01-11, 02:14 AM

memphis magic 76ers lines are fishy for a reson

. But who am I ? was all 0ver clippers tonight and over

.

**suicidekings** · 03-01-11, 02:18 AM

I like the Sixers tomorrow. The books can't really favour PHI against DAL because the line would throw up all kinds of red flags with everyone, but I feel like the Sixers should really be favoured in this game. I make a fair line as PHI -1.5, 203. My initial thought is to play the Sixers 1Q (they've been really good in the 1Q/3Q this year) and then reassess after 12 minutes. I definitely don't like playing PHI at +1.5 or on the small ML. They're just bad bets with small return when we're talking about facing one of the best teams in the league. Much better value will present itself later in the game via live betting or in the second half.

As for the Spurs, I made a fair line as MEM -1, 213. I don't think there's any real edge in this game, but MEM 2H will likely have potential if they're down at the half (but playing well) and I'm thinking about the Over. No play for me, most likely.

In Orlando, I feel like a fair line is ORL -3, 217.5 in this game. Initially, I don't really like a side in this game, but I expect a TON of FTs and feel like ORL 1Q will be solid. If NYK takes the lead in the 1H and a reduced ORL line is available (-2.5 / ML-160 or better), I'll take it.

**hawley** · 03-01-11, 02:19 AM

Magic / Knicks will be just like the Thunder / Magic IMO

Public will love getting the Knicks at +7 coming off a huge victory over the Heat, while they will still remember the poor run the Magic were on

**QUEST001** · 03-01-11, 02:28 AM

Originally posted by hawley

Magic / Knicks will be just like the Thunder / Magic IMO Public will love getting the Knicks at +7 coming off a huge victory over the Heat, while they will still remember the poor run the Magic were on

My thoughts exactly.......

**suicidekings** · 03-01-11, 02:35 AM

The DET/MIL line isn't out yet offshore, but Atlantis/Vimode are showing it as MIL -7.5. DET are typically 2H chokers on the road, but give me DET 1H +4 and I'll be happy.

**Pauulzcappin** · 03-01-11, 02:38 AM

I have a big wager on the Mavericks tomorrow. Just a FYI for faders.

**MadMajor** · 03-01-11, 06:03 AM

Originally posted by ParlayKing

Everyone got their own personality, in demens case when he agrees with something he would not make a comment. When he does make a comment it has valuable content to go against your pick or in favor of the other side. So when he makes a comment be sure it will go against your pick or your lean. And just think about it, who else is gonna go into your thread dishing out good constructive criticism while everyone else is saying things like "love the pick", "im on them too", and etc. LOL cheers demens dont stop what you're doing.

**demens** · 03-01-11, 11:05 AM

Originally posted by suicidekings

As for the Spurs, I made a fair line as MEM -1, 213. I don't think there's any real edge in this game, but MEM 2H will likely have potential if they're down at the half (but playing well) and I'm thinking about the Over. No play for me, most likely.

Book have had trouble capping Memphis all year (best ATS along with Sixers). Just a day ago they were +9 at SA which i thought was ridiculous, even though the game took a crazy turn in the last 60 secs and only covered by 7, it really should have been an easy cover.

Now going off the 3 point to the home team assumption, Grizz should be +3 at home, not -2. Tony Parker is not worth 5 points to the Spurs, that is insane. I think Vegas is unsure of that game as the public is. They do make mistakes.

**ParlayJunkie** · 03-01-11, 11:14 AM

Originally posted by demens

nm.

No disrespect demons. Like I said you have insightful opinions and good stats that you post. I would just like to know what some of your plays are sometimes to see if we agree on em.

**demens** · 03-01-11, 11:19 AM

Originally posted by ParlayKing

Everyone got their own personality, in demens case when he agrees with something he would not make a comment. When he does make a comment it has valuable content to go against your pick or in favor of the other side. So when he makes a comment be sure it will go against your pick or your lean. And just think about it, who else is gonna go into your thread dishing out good constructive criticism while everyone else is saying things like "love the pick", "im on them too", and etc. LOL cheers demens dont stop what you're doing.

Thank you sir. I sometimes add things to plays i like as well, not often but i do. But saying stuff like "Team x is the play", "I'm on team x", "love team x" is useless imo, it really doesn't contribute anything when we consider that 99% of those comments come from people that noone cares what they are on or who they like, and its not like they explain themselves so its mostly just empty space in a thread that i have to scroll through to get to a post that actually has a bit of substance in it.

**demens** · 03-01-11, 11:28 AM

Originally posted by ParlayJunkie

No disrespect demons. Like I said you have insightful opinions and good stats that you post. I would just like to know what some of your plays are sometimes to see if we agree on em.

The plays i make are usually in the comments i make.

Yesterday for example i posted in SKs Atl vs Den thread. I gave my reasons as to why Atl is being underrated but i finished with saying that Den has a lot of value in it. I played Den.

I also talked with SJ about his Kings vs Clips pick. My lean was Kings, but it was a small lean. In my argument i made a point that both teams are bad and neither is worth a play. So it was a no play. Plus i've made a point not to bet against SJ even if i dont agree with his pick (unless i'm very sure of mine), usually if i dont agree i just leave it alone.

Noone talked about the Bulls vs Wiz yesterday so i made no comments on that, which i guess is good cause i played the Wiz and they got destroyed.

Based on my comments from yesterday on the games in this thread, you can assume that i like Dallas. I'll more then likely make a play on them today. Maybe Orlando if the line drop to 6 (come on bodogie) not 100% sure on it.

But as far as me posting Mavs -1 5x. I have no interest in ever doing that.

**mugsey15** · 03-01-11, 11:52 AM

Like everyone lines seem fishy. I've been beat alot lately when I thought were too good to be true. As my dad always tells me there is a reason books make money. They trap or trick you. Haven't decided on any plays yet. Just want everyone to be cautious on lines they think are too good to be true. Best of luck everyone

**ParlayKing** · 03-01-11, 12:08 PM

Thoughts on Portland and Houston game demens I leaning very hard on Portland, Portland coming off a tough home loss and Houston having major line changes losing Brooks and battier might warrant a play on the blazers tonight.

**GigglyPoop** · 03-01-11, 12:09 PM

Originally posted by face

sixers are pretty good, but i don't know about good enough for dallas. spurs are a great idea to me, i would bet spurs -4 against grizzlies. Spurs are playing great bball.

Originally posted by face

Parker out really hurts, but Spurs are gonna win somehow. But i like sixers instead of dallas they can shoot lights out.

Originally posted by face

anyone betting on dallas beware, sixers are awesome right now. maybe it's just against bad teams, i don't know, but they have some clutch shooters right now. elton brand is hitting shots, lou williams hitting 3s, iguodala powering inside. game is a toss up, mavs probably win but i am going with 6ers tomorrow for small unit when the line goes up.

bro, you are just tossing out a bunch of bullshit that nobody is listening to, stop talking

**Holdin Aces** · 03-01-11, 12:21 PM

Originally posted by demens

The plays i make are usually in the comments i make.

Yesterday for example i posted in SKs Atl vs Den thread. I gave my reasons as to why Atl is being underrated but i finished with saying that Den has a lot of value in it. I played Den.

I also talked with SJ about his Kings vs Clips pick. My lean was Kings, but it was a small lean. In my argument i made a point that both teams are bad and neither is worth a play. So it was a no play. Plus i've made a point not to bet against SJ even if i dont agree with his pick (unless i'm very sure of mine), usually if i dont agree i just leave it alone.

Noone talked about the Bulls vs Wiz yesterday so i made no comments on that, which i guess is good cause i played the Wiz and they got destroyed.

Based on my comments from yesterday on the games in this thread, you can assume that i like Dallas. I'll more then likely make a play on them today. Maybe Orlando if the line drop to 6 (come on bodogie) not 100% sure on it.

But as far as me posting Mavs -1 5x. I have no interest in ever doing that.

Alot of truth in this, I for one like you're opinion, it's easy for someone to just throw out a pick and put a unit size on it but you actually give good analysis as to why you like the pick. I still think you are Goat Milk but either way it doesn't matter to me because I liked him as well. Good luck tonight fellas on whatever you decide to play.

**demens** · 03-01-11, 12:25 PM

Originally posted by ParlayKing

Thoughts on Portland and Houston game demens I leaning very hard on Portland, Portland coming off a tough home loss and Houston having major line changes losing Brooks and battier might warrant a play on the blazers tonight.

Haven't looked too much into it. Rockets were one of my fav teams going into the season but i always got their games wrong so stopped betting them. They seem to have responded really well to the trades and had two great games, killed NJ and a come back win in NO with West and Okafor back.

Blazers did not respond that well to their trade, Wallace new to the team, Camby back for the 1st game and they get blown out at home by the Hawks which just doesn't happen. Plus with Roy back, LA starting to go back into his shell. I'd lean Blazers at home to bounce back after a loss for sure against the erratic Rockets. But for me the Rockets are just erratic enough not to play this.

**demens** · 03-01-11, 12:28 PM

Originally posted by Holdin Aces

Alot of truth in this, I for one like you're opinion, it's easy for someone to just throw out a pick and put a unit size on it but you actually give good analysis as to why you like the pick. I still think you are Goat Milk but either way it doesn't matter to me because I liked him as well. Good luck tonight fellas on whatever you decide to play.

Its just a funny comparison because I dont like Goatmilk and i'm pretty sure he doesn't like me. Whenever we talked we disagreed on everything related to basketball so i dont know how people can think we are the same person. I see that he's on the Mavs for a big play tonight though, which i do agree with.

The only stat i dug up that puts a tiny bit of concern in my mind is that the Sixers are one of the best fast break teams in the league and Mavs fast break D isn't on that level, its good but not great. Also margin of victory which a lot of expert use to determine how legit a team is, sometimes more so then the actual wins and losses, and these 2 teams are pretty close 7th vs 11th.

But in either case, i just cant imagine not playing Mavs as a 1 point fav to anyone. They have proved themselves enough times. Not taking any situational circumstances into consideration i think the only team in the league i would not fade vs Mavs with this line are the Bulls, and thats because like the Mavs, Chicago has proven themselves at home time after time as well. Everyone else is fair game.

**BayArea888** · 03-01-11, 01:41 PM

Originally posted by parlayking

everyone got their own personality, in demens case when he agrees with something he would not make a comment. When he does make a comment it has valuable content to go against your pick or in favor of the other side. So when he makes a comment be sure it will go against your pick or your lean. And just think about it, who else is gonna go into your thread dishing out good constructive criticism while everyone else is saying things like "love the pick", "im on them too", and etc. Lol cheers demens dont stop what you're doing.

however, it is one thing to be constructively critical of others' plays and another to be annoying.

**suicidekings** · 03-01-11, 02:38 PM

Originally posted by demens

Book have had trouble capping Memphis all year (best ATS along with Sixers). Just a day ago they were +9 at SA which i thought was ridiculous, even though the game took a crazy turn in the last 60 secs and only covered by 7, it really should have been an easy cover.

Now going off the 3 point to the home team assumption, Grizz should be +3 at home, not -2. Tony Parker is not worth 5 points to the Spurs, that is insane. I think Vegas is unsure of that game as the public is. They do make mistakes.

This assertion is not backed up by the stats. The 3 point addition represents the league average, but the actual home court advantage each team has varies a LOT. In the SAS-MEM matchup, I would set the lines at Grizzlies -1 in Memphis and Spurs -11 in San Antonio (this accounts for all current injuries). This is obviously a much bigger differential than the +/-3 would give, but both teams are very good home teams and Parker being out increases the divide between the teams on the spread.