I can't take credit for this information, but I got these stats in an email this morning from the nba choice newsletter. Just thought I would share. Interesting read for sure!
16 TOTAL GAME 7'S IN NBA HISTORY DATING BACK TO 1950
These stats represent the final score differential for each Game 7 in NBA history.
* 0-3.5 SPREAD RANGE = 6
* 4-7.5 SPREAD RANGE = 5
8-11.5 SPREAD RANGE = 1
12 + SPREAD RANGE = 4
"What stands out is the first two categories above in the 0-7.5 spread range accounts for 11 of the 16 or 70% game 7 results. In Lehman terms, 70% of all Game 7's have resulted in a score differential of 7 or less points. Two of these games have landed right on 7 points, ZERO have landed on 8 points."
Honestly, this makes me think that the odds-makers know exactly what they are doing in setting this line at -7. Question is, do we get a blowout tonight or will this one fall below the 7 point mark? It certainly doesn't look like it will be in between since there has only been 1 Game 7 decided in NBA history in the 8-11.5 range.
Nice stats. In any high profile game, always take the underdog and opposite of the majority in totals. These stats blend nicely as Celts opened at a +4 underdog. News that Perkins is out and the line jumped to +7. 66% of the time the team that has the missing key player will cover the spread. I'm gonna fade the public with 79% on the under and think celtics will keep it close or else will SU
These numbers don't make me want to take Boston ATS. They make me want to hold off on my Lakers ML bet and try to make it live instead for a better number.