[Tchocky]

Here is an interesting article I stumbled on today:

For NBA bettors understanding how a week of NBA games is going to play-out is no easy task. Injuries and wins and losses during the week always affect the BetUS against the spread lines that you are likely to get on any Thursday, Friday, Saturday, or Sunday game.

Because of that, it is important to understand that unlike the NFL, where a single game once a week can either pad or destroy your bank-roll, the NBA is a long season where single games everyday can slowly deteriorate your bankroll or build your bankroll over time.

Trying to hit home-runs in the NBA isn’t the best strategy for any sports handicapper. In truth, what you want to do as an NBA bettor is to start studying the Thursday games on the previous Sunday night. Then study the Friday games on Monday, the Saturday games on Tuesday, and finally next weeks’ Sunday games on Wednesday. What this means is that in order to start winning on the NBA odds, bettors must have the discipline to study future games two or three days before the games are actually played.

Because spreads are usually not offered until the morning of the games, this may appear like a very difficult task. However, if one takes a close look at the statistics, and really tries to pin-point a few potential opportunities, any sports handicapper can have a successful year wagering on the NBA.

To illustrate this strategy, I will pin-point one game on Thursday, Friday, Saturday and Sunday of this coming week and discuss statistics and how they might affect 1) the against the spread-line that is offered at BetUS and 2) where that line may end up before tip-off.

Although it is impossible for any sports handicapper to correctly figure out what the exact spread may end up being right before tip-off, managing to create a 1 or 2 point spread range will prove very helpful. Trying to find out what the point-spread may end up enables NBA bettors to create an individual point-spread line. Creating individual point-spread lines in the NBA is the best way for sports handicappers to effectively manage their bank-roll over a long basketball season.


Nov. 29 – Thursday

Denver Nuggets vs. Los Angeles Lakers – A quick glance at the team comparison statistics reveals that these two teams are very close in terms of scoring points and points allowed. For instance, the Nuggets average 105.1 points per game; the Lakers average 105.6 points per game. The Nuggets give up an average of 99.5 points per game and the Lakers give up an average of 100.8 points per game. Both the Nuggets and the Lakers are consistent teams and it shows up in their average field goals made per game - - 37.6 for the Nuggets and 37.5 for the Lakers.

Both teams also work hard to get the ball to their best scorer. For the Lakers, it is Kobe Bryant who is averaging 27 points per game. For the Nuggets, it is Carmelo Anthony who is averaging 25 points per game.

Because the offensive statistics appear so close between these two teams, it is important to look at what is different between these teams. This is important for a sports handicapper to do for every NBA game that he or she is interested in making a wager on. By saying different, I do not mean the fact that the Lakers are playing at home or that the Nuggets feed the ball to Carmelo Anthony.

The difference must be specific and it must be a statistic. When the difference is something that appears to be so important that it could change the entire game, then that statistic must be considered the number one factor when creating one’s own individual wagering against the spread line.

The statistic in the game is the fact that the Nuggets force an average of 13 turnovers per game while only giving the ball up about 5 times a game. The Lakers, on the other hand, force 5 turnovers a game and give up the rock, on average, about 6 times a game.

This means that the Nuggets, should neither team suffer a serious injury before this game, will end up with more possessions than the Lakers. That could be a huge advantage for the Nuggets.

Expected Opening BetUS NBA Line: Denver Nuggets + 3.5 or + 5.5

Reasoning: The Nuggets will be on the road and there is still a feeling around the league, and in betting circles, that Kobe Bryant at home is good enough to beat any spread under 6 points.

Expected Tip-Off BetUS NBA Line: Denver Nuggets + 2.5 to + 4.5

Reasoning: NBA bettors will notice how the Nuggets defense is much more capable of disrupting the Lakers’ guards than the Lakers’ D is of disrupting the Nuggets’ guards.

Personal Basketball Wagering Line: Denver Nuggets + 3 or higher.

Should the Nuggets receive 3 points or more in this game, then, based on my statistical analysis, they would be an excellent wager.



Nov. 30 – Friday

Orlando Magic vs. Phoenix Suns - - The Orlando Magic are one of the top teams in the East. The Phoenix Suns have won 8 straight and are on of the top teams in the West. The Suns average about 4 more points per game than the Magic, but the Magic give up about 4 less points per game than the Suns. So, there’s no help there.

Like Thursday’s game, though, there the turnover differential is quite ominous for one of these teams. The Orlando Magic average 6 turnovers per game; they force about 3 turnovers per game. The Phoenix Suns average 8 turnovers per game but they force about 10 turnovers per game.

What this statistic really tells me, after looking at it from the prism of an understanding regarding how Eastern Conference teams usually play, is that the Orlando Magic stylistically are somewhat like the Phoenix Suns. In other words, both teams should be pushing the ball forward. However, one team forces turnovers while the other has trouble doing so.

Expected Opening BetUS NBA Line: Phoenix Suns – 5.5 to - 7.5

Reasoning: Even though the Phoenix Suns are supposedly superior to the Orlando Magic, the Magic are, record wise, the second best team in the Eastern Conference. Odds-makers will reward Suns backers by offering an initial low line.

Expected Tip-Off BetUS NBA Line: Phoenix Suns – 9 to – 11

Reasoning: The Suns backers will come out in force with a line anywhere below 8 points. By tip-off, this line should be right around 10 points.

Personal Basketball Wagering Line: Phoenix Suns -10

The Suns have the superior defense and, when matched up against a running team like the Magic, the Suns will no doubt exploit the Magic’s turnovers into Phoenix Suns 2 point slam dunks. Should all players remain healthy for this game, expect the Suns to handle the Magic quite easily.



Dec. 1 – Saturday

Dallas Mavericks vs. New Orleans Hornets – Like the other two games I analyzed in this article, the turnover difference between the Mavericks and Hornets is quite amazing. The Mavericks force 11 turnovers per game; the hornets force only 4 turnovers per game. The one thing that the Hornets do have in their favor is that, statistically, they’ve got the second best point-guard in the NBA, Chris Paul, after Steve Nash. Expect the turnover differential to be closer than 11 to 4 in this game. Chris Paul could cut the turnovers that the Mavericks usually force by close to 50%. That would put the Mavericks at 5.5 and the Hornets at 4.

So, what’s left? Free throws. The Mavericks average over 8 more free throw attempts per game than the New Orleans Hornets. This means that the Mavericks are more likely to force the issue than the Hornets, who at times appear content to take jump-shots on the perimeter.

Expected Opening BetUS NBA Line: Dallas Mavericks – 3.5 to – 5.5

Reasoning: Nobody will look at this game and think that the Hornets are a superior team to the Mavericks. However, the Hornets are playing at home and they are led by the best young point-guard in the NBA. That means that Dallas will be favored, but they won’t be favored by much.

Expected Tip-Off BetUS NBA Line: Dallas Mavericks – 4.5 to – 6.5

Reasoning: This line shouldn’t change much. The Mavericks haven’t been playing as well as they can and the Hornets are at home. Expect Dallas to get more play than the Hornets, should all players remain healthy, because of their superior starting five.

Personal Basketball Wagering Line: New Orleans Hornets + 6

Chris Paul is good enough to keep any game close. The Mavericks are a superior team, but the Hornets are at home. Getting 6 points at home versus a team that hasn’t hit its best stride isn’t a bad wager.



Dec. 2 - Sunday

New Jersey Nets vs. Detroit Pistons – Two teams that are more evenly matched than people think. The turnover differential isn’t great enough to say that it might be a factor. Both teams are good defensively, the Nets allow 94 points per game and Detroit allows 93 points per game.

What this game comes down to is a good old look at the average points scored for both teams. The Nets average a paltry 84 while the Pistons average 97. That’s a 13 point difference and, yes, it does mean something. Sometimes a game comes down to the obvious, like this one, but it is still in the best interest of the NBA bettor to create a hypothetical regarding the BetUS against the spread line

Expected Opening BetUS NBA Line: Detroit Pistons – 6 to – 8

Reasoning: The Pistons will be at home and even though they haven’t absolutely dominated teams, they can still rock a team like the Nets.

Expected Tip-Off BetUS NBA Line: Detroit Pistons – 7 to – 9

Reasoning: Like the Mavs vs. Hornets game, should everyone remain healthy, I just don’t see this line moving all that much. The Pistons have a tendency to play down to their competition and the Nets do have Jason Kidd who might keep it close for 3 quarters because of his excellent decision-making.

Personal Basketball Wagering Line: Detroit Pistons – 8

At – 8 or lower the Pistons are a good wager. They will be in front of their home crowd and this is an Eastern Conference team they are playing against. Finally, going back to my highlighted statistic, the Pistons are a much better offensive team than the Nets.

[MJFtheGenius]

I cap the NBA unlikke any other sport, I try to make my picks in a matter of 5 seconds when I see the line, just count on my knowledge and instincts. i don't like to get caught up in thinking too much. If you want to call that capping.