Boston Celtics @ Orlando Magic - NBA (5/16 3:30 ET)
Play: Boston Celtics +7
Liking the Celtics and the points here as an against the grain pick. Absolutely everybody will be on the Magic, and maybe rightfully so. Try and get this at 7, as of early Sunday right now, most books have 6.5, but it will most definitely move to 6.5 if 65%+ remain on the Magic, which will probably happen. 65% on Magic showing on live odds and 66% at s(quare)portsbook (use only for fading purposes). Vegas has gotten burned just about every game with the Magic in the playoffs. Magic have covered every playoff game as public favorites but their first. Vegas will learn. They will have to adjust the line, maybe to 7.5 even or higher. If they don't, then it may mean that they "know" something to have enough confidence in the Magic to not adjust the line or that sharp money is on the Celtics to keep it level. Either way, it's good news.
I like a lot of angels with taking the Celtics.
1) Rest or Rust - The Magic haven't played in almost a week and they have played probably the two worst teams in the playoffs. They're confident, they've been laying around for a week, they have yet to be tested at all, and they've covered their last 7 games...the playoffs have been one big joke for them. Well now guess what, you're running into a seasoned, veteran squad that always plays hard and great together; a total antithesis to the Hawks. So many times in past playoffs have we seen the rust factor come into play with big favorites. Lakers numerous times over the years and maybe even last year with Cavs/Magic. Yeah, I think Magic were better, but the Cavs didn't know what him them and, like this year's Magic, played and swept two scrub teams the first two rounds and then hit a wall when they played the Magic. It's not a perfectly apt comparison to this year, but I think Celtics can keep it close.
2) Revenge factor - We know the Magic flat embarrassed the Celtics last year. Even though the series went 7, Magic embarrassed them in game 1 and clearly outplayed the Celtics. Celtics didn't have Garnett either, now they do. I think revenge will be a big-time factor here. Huge. This isn't the same Celtic team last year. This team looks driven and is playing the type of ball that won them a title in 2008. This is now personal for the Celtics and you know Garnett will be huge for them. I would not at all be surprised if they won SU.
3) Anti-public - Yeah, this is a pretty bad reason to bet a game, but I just got a feeling it's a real good time to go against the grain here. The Magic have covered their last 7 games and at some point it's got to break. Vegas is due for a winner. They wouldn't be in business if they didn't know what they were doing. They will get one back tomorrow.
4) THA_DIESEL (SBR poster notorious for losing and providing excellent fade material) is on the Magic, and BIG (apparently). This is really all you need right here. Take the Celtics.
It seems like a pretty solid play when you think about it. But I would not at all be surprised if Joe Public cashes again on the Magic Train.
I'd like to do it, but I just can't. The Magic are playing great team ball and Dwight Howard is unstoppable. Who is going to stop Dwight Howard? Kendrick Perkins?
Look at the blogs at the bottom right here http://sbrforum.com/ and compare them to mine. Mine isn't particularly exceptional, but relatively, you cannot tell me this didn't deserve blog roll over those. Wille Bee is stiffing me.
i like bos and love reason number 4!!!!!!!! but beware Diesel is broke and begging for points so he can have action on this game so he may be screaming "big bet" but in all honesty has nothing on it as he has nothing
The smart play is to take the Celtics but I've been on the Magic train before the playoffs and I'm not getting off yet. I look for them to win game 1 big. Good Luck to All!
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Take the Celtics - Write-up
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@ #4. 
