[DuncHen22]

I'll admit, I haven't won any money or points from these picks, I just started doing these props for fun yesterday (in an excel sheet) to see how I could do. I went 4-0 yesterday so I tried it again today and went 9-3!

If you don't want to believe me that's fine. I wanted to start a thread for accountability purposes in case this system is legit.

It may be beginners luck. I'm sure some people will come on here and yell "Fade!" because of the gambler's fallacy law.

I'm not claiming to be great at this, and like I said, I've only been doing this for two days. This is all in fun, but if these keep being consistent it may pay off for us.

And if this turns out to be a dud, I'll shut up and go away.

I know this doesn't mean much because it could have been altered but for what it's worth, here's a screenshot of my excel sheet:

[DuncHen22]

Stay tuned, I'll have my first picks out before 2:00 Eastern

[DuncHen22]

All props and lines are from SportBet:

ORLANDO VS CHARLOTTE

TOTAL POINTS: V. CARTER +4.5 (VS. S JACKSON) -135
TOTAL POINTS: DIAW +0.5 (VS PEITRUS) -135
POINTS+ASSISTS: NELSON -6.5 (VS FELTON) +140
POINTS+ASSISTS: LEWIS UNDER 14.5 +110
TOTAL POINTS: NELSON UNDER 15.5 -145
TOTAL POINTS: JACKSON UNDER 20.5 +100
POINTS+REBOUNDS: G. WALLACE UNDER 27 -105
POINTS+ASSISTS: FELTON UNDER 17.5 +105
PTS+REB+AST: DIAW OVER 16.5 -155

[DuncHen22]

PHOENIX vs PORTLAND:

PTS+AST: MILLER +3.5 (VS NASH) -130
PTS+REB: ALDRIDGE +3 (VS STOUD) -150
POINTS: HILL +2.5 (VS BAYLESS) -160
POINTS: RICHARDSON UNDER 18 -110
PTS+REB+AST: HILL UNDER 19.5 -135
POINTS: ALDRIDGE OVER 18.5 -155
POINTS+REB: CAMBY OVER 18.5 -155

[JamesBrown]

Good stuff DuncHen. I took Jameer Nelson - Total Points and Assists Over 19 today. I'm thinking about taking your Nelson -6.5 vs Felton too. GL today

[DuncHen22]

Thanks! Just remember this is a very young system so I'm not making promises but I feel good about these. I may have to find a way to cut down the number of plays.

BOL!

[DuncHen22]

Im leaving for the rest of the day so i don't have time to do the other games but I think I have enough plays for today to see if this is legit or not. I'll be back late tonight to see how I did.

[CarloTwoGuns]

Good stuff

[DuncHen22]

All props and lines are from SportBet:
ORLANDO VS CHARLOTTE
TOTAL POINTS: V. CARTER +4.5 (VS. S JACKSON) -135
TOTAL POINTS: DIAW +0.5 (VS PEITRUS) -135
POINTS+ASSISTS: NELSON -6.5 (VS FELTON) +140
POINTS+ASSISTS: LEWIS UNDER 14.5 +110
TOTAL POINTS: NELSON UNDER 15.5 -145
TOTAL POINTS: JACKSON UNDER 20.5 +100
POINTS+REBOUNDS: G. WALLACE UNDER 27 -105
POINTS+ASSISTS: FELTON UNDER 17.5 +105
PTS+REB+AST: DIAW OVER 16.5 -155

5-4, -.26 units

PHOENIX vs PORTLAND:
PTS+AST: MILLER +3.5 (VS NASH) -130
PTS+REB: ALDRIDGE +3 (VS STOUD) -150
POINTS: HILL +2.5 (VS BAYLESS) -160
POINTS: RICHARDSON UNDER 18 -110
PTS+REB+AST: HILL UNDER 19.5 -135
POINTS: ALDRIDGE OVER 18.5 -155
POINTS+REB: CAMBY OVER 18.5 -155

5-2 +2.1 units

Total: 10-6 (63%), +1.84 units

Not as great as the two previous days but still a modest gain. I'll keep doing this for a bit to see if it continues to be a routine winner. I'll try to cut down on the number of plays though.

Overall: 22-9, +10.14 units (71%)

[DuncHen22]

Boston vs miami

pts+reb: Garnett under 23.5 -145
assists: Rondo under 9.5 -105

[DuncHen22]

Cleveland vs chicago:

Pts+ast: Hinrich +5.5 (vs williams) -125
pts+ast: Rose +6.5 (vs james) +115
rebounds: James under 8.5 -120
pts+reb: Gibson +1 (vs varejao) -205
pts+ast: James under 41.5 -130
pts+ast: Rose over 32.5 -115
points: Deng under 13.5 -130

[Goat Milk]

if you haven't been putting any money on them how are you plus 8.3 units?

[DuncHen22]

if you haven't been putting any money on them how are you plus 8.3 units?

Because I'm following it as if I was actually betting. That's how much I would be up if I was betting to win a unit per play.

[SwisherSweet420]

any plays nugs vs spurs

[DuncHen22]

I'll try and get those out soon

[SwisherSweet420]

im liking terry 3 pt field goal over 1.5. Also kid over 17 pts and assists(Dallas must win) and dirk over 26.5(Dallas must win). Finally parker under 23.5 pts

[hollywoodmanny]

followed your props swisher...gl..hopefully we cash gangsta!

[SwisherSweet420]

hell yeah. LETS BOTH GO ST8 to the bank.

[DuncHen22]

Wow, I sometimes find it hard to believe the Gambler's Fallacy is just a fallacy. 1-6 in the CHI-CLE game. Granted, 4 of those picks hinged on Lebron having a subpar day and Rose having a good day, but that obviously didn't happen. I'll try the next game to see if it gets any better.

EDIT: I'm too lazy to do the next game, I'll keep trying a day or two before throwing this system out but I'm gonna let this next game go.

I like Swisher's picks though! BOL!

[williams22]

Wow, I sometimes find it hard to believe the Gambler's Fallacy is just a fallacy. 1-6 in the CHI-CLE game. Granted, 4 of those picks hinged on Lebron having a subpar day and Rose having a good day, but that obviously didn't happen. I'll try the next game to see if it gets any better.

Just a tip, but betting against Lebron individually following a loss is probably not going to be very profitable for you.

[Wilforth]