[bigboydan]

Mike Conley +650 looks like he's has some definite value to win ROY this year IMO. This kid seems to have the tools to turn the Grizzlies team to a contender.

NBA 2007-08: MVP and Rookie futures up

By: Chance Harper

It takes five guys working together to play a basketball game, but just one of those players can make or break a team over the course of one game or one season. Futures are out for 2007-08 NBA hardware, with Kevin Durant seemingly a shoo-in for Rookie of the Year and LeBron James the fave for MVP.

Basketball might be a team sport, but the NBA marketing machine is all about individuals. Fair enough; one player can make all the difference to a team. Just ask the Cleveland Cavaliers. They’d be toast without LeBron James, the 2003-04 Rookie of the Year and one of the co-favorites for the league’s MVP award in 2007.
NBA 2007-08: MVP and Rookie futures up

James is pegged at +500 to claim the largely unkown Maurice Podoloff Trophy, alongside two-time winner Steve Nash, reigning holder Dirk Nowitzki, and perennial non-winner Kobe Bryant. If James or Bryant is going to win this year, his team will have to make a bigger dent in the standings.

The 125 members of the sports media who vote on this award have historically shunned teams that are not near the top of the regular-season standings; none of the MVPs since Houston’s Moses Malone in 1982 came from clubs with fewer than 50 wins. Cleveland has won 50 games in each of the last two seasons, while the Los Angeles Lakers haven’t come close in the three years since 2000 MVP Shaquille O’Neal was traded to Miami. Neither team has done much upgrading this offseason.

The 50-win plateau may be arbitrary, but it still doesn’t bode well for otherwise deserving MVP candidates on projected second-tier teams, like Miami’s Dwyane Wade (+800), Denver’s Carmelo Anthony (+1000), and Toronto’s Chris Bosh (+1200). It also takes a significant amount of star power to draw the attention of voters, which is part of the reason why Yao Ming is priced at +1200 despite being one of the most dominant players in the league for two years running. Health is also a concern, as Yao saw action in just 57 and 48 games during those seasons.

It’s important for those playing the futures market to pay as much attention to the voters as the players. Few members of the conventional media will be poring over stat sheets to see who has the highest PER or Roland Rating. They will, however, have their fingers on the pulse of which stories are commanding the attention of the common basketball fan. This year’s top story thus far would have to be the Boston Celtics. If they can at least come close to the 50-game mark this year, Kevin Garnett (+800) will hear the letters “M-V-P” chanted at the TD Banknorth Garden every time he steps to the foul line.

There have only been two rookie MVPs in league history: Wilt Chamberlain in 1960 and Wes Unseld in 1969. That’s the bar Kevin Durant (+4000) has to surpass if he’s going to become the third. It’s much more likely that the former Texas Longhorn will win the Rookie of the Year, especially now that Greg Oden is out for the year. Durant is the runaway chalk at -400.

If you’re looking for a spoiler ROY candidate, you have a wide assortment from one of the deepest drafts in recent memory. Al Thornton is the second favorite at +475; the promising forward will get his share of scoring chances for the Los Angeles Clippers with Elton Brand out of commission, but buyer beware. Thornton is already 23 years old, and older is rarely better when it comes to rookies.

Atlanta’s Al Horford looks like a better choice at +500. The Hawks have the chance to compete for a playoff spot this year as their previous lottery picks continue to mature – and, with any luck for Hawks supporters, avoid the injury bug for a change. Horford is excellent on both sides of the ball, and unlike the previous logjam of forwards Atlanta has drafted in years past, he can theoretically play center in the East.

Other compelling ROY dark horses include Memphis’ Mike Conley (+650) and Durant’s teammate in Seattle, Jeff Green (+800). But since a non-Durant bet is a flyer, how about Chicago’s Joakim Noah at +4000? There are minutes available at power forward for the Bulls, and Noah is a two-time college champion with a great attitude. The voters will love him.

[rjt721]

Am I the only one that sees that Conley can't play? And no, it's not that he's a Buckeye and I'm a UM fan. The kid can't shoot, he's not a very good ballhandler, and he's not getting into the lane as easily in the NBA as he did in college. He's Rajon Rondo without the athleticism. B-U-S-T.