[KingKolzig]

this is just weird. they arent even attempting any shots at all, i looked at the history with these 2 teams and it isnt like this

[tokio]

1st half 2-7 3pts.

[EaglesPhan36]

3rd period is how the whole game needed to be. 3/10. I think part of the reason the two teams have failed to shoot so many here is that both teams have been getting into the lane and setting up in the post pretty regularly without enough defensive stops. I won't discount this prop for Game 2 as both coaches will likely make adjustments to defend the paint better and hopefully open up the perimeter.

[EaglesPhan36]

Prop #19: [Game 7] Al Horford Total Points OVER 14.5 [-115]
Decisive Game 7 in Atlanta today and the feeling for me is if the Hawks are going to win, Al Horford is going to continue to be a large contributor. He has hit 15 points or better in 4 of the 6 games in this series. The two games where he failed to hit above this total, he was limited to just 30 minutes of playing time. One for foul trouble and two in the Game 3 route. I believe if Horford gets his required 36 minutes or better of PT today, this should have a legit shot. The games where he's hit for 15 or better, he's gotten up at least a dozen shots - so that is a key number as well. It wouldn't hurt for him to get to the FT line more also. He's only had 13 attempts all series, but maybe not so coincidentally in all the games he has made it to the line at least once, he scored 15 or more.

[THE HITMAN]

Just too much paint last nite..........sanded, primed, 3 base coats, finish coat & topped off with lacquer.

[EaglesPhan36]

This is gonna be a bitch if this game doesn't get a little closer. Horford needs to get back in the game in the 4th Q. Stuck on 14 and he missed a pair of FTs before he left.

[EaglesPhan36]

Prop #20: [Game 1] Wesley Matthews Total Points OVER 12.5 [-130]
This one seems like a real gem. Matthews had 3 very solid games against the Lakers in the regular season with 14, 13 & 19 points. Now that he is part of the Jazz' starting lineup, this should be an even better opportunity for the rookie to get some recognition. He had a very good series against Denver, averaging almost 12 points per game. He got better as the series progressed with double figure outputs in Games 3-6 at 14, 18, 15 & 23. If he continues to start, he should have a favorable offensive match-up as you'd think Kobe will spend some major time on Deron Williams. If so, Matthews can exploit his height and quickness advantage over the likes of Derek Fisher, Farmar or Shannon Brown. I wouldn't worry much about Matthews getting worn down guarding Kobe either as Matthews drew Carmelo Anthony for most of the Denver series and still did well. I think with plenty of attention expected toward Williams & Boozer/Millsap down low, Matthews may become somewhat of an X factor in this series offensively.

[KingKolzig]

I like the matthews prop as well. he should get 35:00 minutes unless its a huge blowout. all my props depend on this game not being a blowout. im hoping lakers come out a bit flat after such a trying game 6

matthews o12.5 (-115)
millsap o14.5 (even)
bryant u37 p+r+a (-110)
gasol o12.5 reb (-105)

[EaglesPhan36]

Woot! Horford just got his 16th point. Pay me b*tch!

[THE HITMAN]

Nice call on Horford

[EaglesPhan36]

Updated Record: 12-7 [+3.90]

[THE HITMAN]

I like the matthews prop as well. he should get 35:00 minutes unless its a huge blowout. all my props depend on this game not being a blowout. im hoping lakers come out a bit flat after such a trying game 6

matthews o12.5 (-115)
millsap o14.5 (even)
bryant u37 p+r+a (-110)
gasol o12.5 reb (-105)

Just a rebound away from a nice 3-1 winner.

[EaglesPhan36]

Updated Record: 13-7 [+4.90]

[jessetopolski]

where did u find that

[EaglesPhan36]

All props I am playing are at 5Dimes.

[KingKolzig]

i know, that was tough

matthews should have missed that last FT on purpose like his coaches told him too, you could see he didnt want to, moron

[KingKolzig]

Value Prop Tonight

P.Pierce o28.5 (p+r+a) +125

I dont think there is much chance the refs put Pierce in foul trouble tonight. I think in fact there is a greater chance that they put him at the line 6-8 times. I think the Celts will get more calls tonight then they did last game, i think Pierce can have a game where he scores in the low 20's...........something like this:

9-19 FG (19 pts)
4-5 FT (4 pts)
5 rebs
3 ass

Total: 31

[KingKolzig]

Ray Allen o17.5 pts (-105)

I know overs in points are a bad idea when the books temp you with them but i like this line opposite my pierce bet. Cleveland has shown Ray plenty of good looks this season as they dont seem too concerned with him. In fact in 6 games he is averaging 20.2 pts vs cleveland this year. Will cleveland take the ball out of Rondos hands and leave Ray some open looks, i think thats possible as well. I like Ray to score 19 tonight

[zigomanisinsider]

good luck man

[EaglesPhan36]

Prop #21: [Game 2] LeBron James Total Points OVER 30.5 [+105]
I was surprised to see this one in plus money right now as LeBron has absolutely owned Boston in the past two years. Since the 2008 playoff match-up between these two teams, LeBron has averaged almost 32 points per game against the Celtics. That includes 5 games in the 2009-2010 season with LeBron only failing to top this prop once. What should be worrisome for the Celtics is that LeBron looked human in the 1st half and still wound up with 35 points in Game 1 as he heated up in a big way with 21 points in the 2nd half, 12 of which came in the final quarter. I particularly like this one tonight because I think Doc Rivers is probably trying to figure out a way to shut down Mo Williams who ignited a big run by the Cavs in the 3rd quarter. As with most teams, I think the Celtics expect LeBron to get his, but want to keep the supporting cast in check. What should also help this prop have a solid shot to cash is that Boston has the confidence they can stick with Cleveland and has kept all but one of the five meetings this season close/winnable. That should be plenty of minutes for LeBron who has played better than 40 minutes in all but the Game 4 blowout win vs. Chicago. Oh by the way, he had 37 points in the game he played the least in and he's scored 31 or more in 4 of 6 this post-season.

Also note in this one that the 3 Pointers Made Prop is down to 12, high chalk on the OVER at -150. I'm just going to watch this prop in Game 2 and see if the teams re-adjust to taking more outside shots with the chalk being that high. Still like the OVER in general, but will not play it this evening.

[EaglesPhan36]

Prop #22: [Game 1] Amar'e Stoudemire Total Points OVER 23.5 [-130]
Big chalk here, but the Spurs have never proven they can stop Stoudemire. This is one of his favorite opponents to light up as he has averaged almost 23 ppg against them in 23 career games. This season, he has amped that production up with totals of 29, 41 & 28. Even in his prime, Tim Duncan had trouble guarding Stoudemire. McDyess I think would have just as much trouble if that's part of the formula for the Spurs. Dating back to before Stoudemire got hurt last season, he has gone five straight against the Spurs with more than tonight's posted number. Also back in the 2008 playoffs, he lit San Antonio up early in the series for three straight games of 28 points or better. Stoudemire did not need to be a dominant force in round 1 against Portland and he was held relatively in-check by more athletic defenders in Camby and Aldridge. This round though, I expect Stoudemire to be more a focal point on offense as the Spurs can't really afford to double down on him with the deadly shooters Phoenix possesses.

[KingKolzig]

greek has o11.5 (-150) 3's made right now

[EaglesPhan36]

Not bad, but that high chalk sucks. That's why I'd rather see how this game adjusts from Game 1 before going on the 3 prop again especially with that price tag. If it was a normal price like -115 for a prop, I'd probably be willing to live or die with it.

[Goat Milk]

greek has o11.5 (-150) 3's made right now

Good bet with Ray Allen, Stoud. Don't like the Bron bet.

[KingKolzig]

Not bad, but that high chalk sucks. That's why I'd rather see how this game adjusts from Game 1 before going on the 3 prop again especially with that price tag. If it was a normal price like -115 for a prop, I'd probably be willing to live or die with it.

i think it is worth the juice in this situation. your analysis was right on about last game, and the low attempts in the first half was rare. nerves? maybe a bit hesitant to take the 3's in the opening game of the series...........i would be very suprised to see that happen again, a lot of 3 pt shooters on the court tonight. After the slow start last game they still ended up with 28 attempts. Id say the o/u for attempts tonight would be like 35.5 about........this goes over tonight but i dont have a greek account

[KingKolzig]

Good bet with Ray Allen, Stoud. Don't like the Bron bet.

i love his Lebron bet for +105. you have to figure Lebron will be playing with added "juice" so to speak tonight. he averages 29.7 ppg in the reg season. how many games did they win by 15+ and he went thru the motions. to take the under on a Lebron output in a meaningfull series during the prime of his career is suicide........i bet ep wins this one, and i would take it but i cant get even close to even money on this at any of my books...........plus having a lebron points prop is simply fun to watch

[EaglesPhan36]

Just hesitant on the 3s in Game 2 because the Cavs only shot 12. Yeah, I doubt there's a repeat of that - but who knows. Best I think to see another game to see how the coaching adjustments effect things.

[tealish]

LeBron may go with the "being a playmaker for 3 quarters, and then scoring in the 4th" mode to save his elbow, because he believes he can just flip the switch like that now. I see a 25/9/9 line.

[THE HITMAN]

Betj has the 3's prop at 13 +105 if anyone doesn't want to juice it up. Pretty much the same as 12.5, meaning, yup, you don't win at 12.5 if they get 13, but you push at 13..........same as sitting it out. So, if you like the 12.5 but don't want to be juicy, good option here.

[THE HITMAN]

On the 3's prop, took over 13 +105 at BETJ and over 12 @Carib - 125. Dimes also has 12 @ -125. I feel comfortable with both of those.

[EaglesPhan36]

Looks pretty solid right now. Who woulda guess 'Sheed would be leading the charge? Sure this 3 prop will be back up to 12.5 or 13 at most books for Game 3.

[KingKolzig]

that o12 at -125 is very very solid

[THE HITMAN]

Shhhhh until 10:30 PM or so, LOL !!

[EaglesPhan36]

Well good for you guys getting that 3 prop, it's a done deal pretty much. Too bad I don't take my own advice some times on riding props from the beginning of the series. Hoping the Stoudemire one hits. Got the juice down to -130 at least. Happy hunting!

[THE HITMAN]

GL on the Stoudamire prop, man. I didn't take it, just couldn't get #'s I was comfortable with. OK for you on the 3's prop.............The way I see it, you had it figured pretty close to just right @ 12-13. Good job, can't blame yourself.