[EaglesPhan36]

Prop #9: [Game 3] Celtics-Heat Total Three Pointers Made OVER 11.5 [-115]
Game 2 showed why this number could be a little bit lazy at where it's set as Dwyane Wade & Ray Allen combined for 12 of their teams' 21 three pointers. There were 38 threes attempted, far more than the paltry 23 in Game 1. The Celtics more than tripled their attempts from Game 1 to Game 2 under orders from Doc Rivers to shoot open threes no matter how they've been shooting to this point. That really opened things up and if the same strategy continues in Game 3, gives this prop a chance to cash on the OVER side. Allen of course is the big key as he is the biggest distance threat on either team. I would be SHOCKED if Boston doesn't try to get him going early again tonight to keep that threat in Miami's mind. On the other side, the Heat made 9 of 18 with Wade accounting for 5 of 9. Richardson & Chalmers are really the only other two threats with a couple odd threes shot by other members of the Heat. In that trio, Miami needs to get it's half dozen or better threes. Both teams have been struggling some to guard the 3, with Boston allowing 37% shooting from beyond the arc in the last 5, while Miami is allowing close to 40%. During the regular season, these two teams hit right about the same - 6 of 17 per game. If think if they can get around 35 attempts, netting 12 is a real possibility.

[GoGoGadget]

For today I have kidd more assists/Ginobili, Dirk more points/Duncan and Duncan more rebounds than Dirk.

2 bad I wasn't at home when I saw the Noah more rebounds than Sideshow bob and Bryant more assists than Durant for yesterdays games. Both won but I don't like placing bets unless im on my home computer and they got taken down before I could wager on them.

GL for tonight.

[EaglesPhan36]

Updated Record: 6-3 [+2.65]

Fo' sho. 14 threes made.

[SwisherSweet420]

any props for the nuggets game?

[EaglesPhan36]

Didn't do any, but I was thinking about Carmelo Points/Assists, think the number was 34.5 .. over.

[EaglesPhan36]

Prop #10: [Game 4] Jason Richardson Total Points OVER 18 [-120]
Wow. The books apparently do not respect what J-Rich has done in Games 2 & 3 with 71 combined points. Richardson has been fantastic, both shooting the 3 and getting to the rim, scoring and working his way to the FT line. Admittedly Richardson did not have regular season stats vs. Portland that showed he was going to be the break out man for the Suns in this series, but you adjust to what is working. Richardson is showing a maturity to his game this postseason and seems to be relishing the fact that his showing here could also get him a big payday in the offseason with J-Rich scheduled to be a free agent. So long as he remains aggressive, I don't see why he can't eclipse this number in Game 4.

[EaglesPhan36]

Prop #11: [Game 4] Pau Gasol Total Rebounds OVER 11.5 [-130]
Gasol has been working the glass this series with 12 or more in all three games. He's skirted foul trouble which has allowed him to play 36, 39 & 42 minutes in Games 1-3. Gasol has now had 12 or more boards in 9 of the Lakers' last 12 overall. I would expect the Lakers to make a concerted effort to control the glass tonight after OKC worked them over in Game 3. The Lakers had been in control of that stat in Games 1 & 2 and will need to get back to that if they are going to take a 3-1 lead.

[EaglesPhan36]

Updated Record: 6-5 [+0.15]

Lakers suck.

[EaglesPhan36]

Took most of yesterday off because of Internet issues. Will be looking to see where the books adjusted the Magic-Bobcats three pointers prop to after it only hit 14 last game. Had steadily raised a half three each game in the series from 15 in Game 1 to 16 last game. Anything less than 16, I like as an auto-play on the over. 16 or above, it's a no play. Hoping it slips back to 15.5. Magic did not shoot the 3 well last game at 9 for 30, but if they keep pumping up that many threes - always a shot for the over.

[EaglesPhan36]

Prop #12: [Game 4] Magic-Bobcats Total Three Pointers Made OVER 15.5 [-115]
The books seem to flow with whatever happens in the previous game to set this number and that is fine by me tonight. Back down to 15.5 after the last game was set at 16 and finished with 14 threes made out of 53 attempts. I have no problem taking the OVER tonight as I have maintained this entire series that this was an OVER bet to be made each game if the number was right. I chose not to play it in Game 3 at 16 as the number 16 was hit exactly in Games 1 & 2 and hoping to land a push is just not good voo-doo. However, with 16 makes now the number that will gain a win, it's time to go again on the OVER. We've had 41, 42 & 53 attempts in the first three games of the series with 16, 16 & 14 makes. I continue to hold fast that the key is Charlotte taking an adequate number of three pointers. They're not going to be mistaken for Orlando, but if they put up 20+ attempts, I believe Charlotte can make a half dozen. If they do, Orlando does the rest. Riding it again tonight.

[Wilforth]

A good prop, that.

[EaglesPhan36]

Prop #13: [Game 5] Andre Miller Total Points + Assists OVER 21.5 [-135]
The improbably return of Brandon Roy may turn Andre Miller back into a big X factor in this series. After Miller burned them in Game 1, the Suns adjusted to take Miller's scoring out of the Trail Blazers offensive attack. Now with Roy back, there will be no double teams coming on Miller. That will leave Miller free to work smaller defenders into the post and distribute the rock to his teammates. Miller has beaten this number in 2 of 4 games and fell just shy in a third. In the regular season, Miller eclipsed 20 points against the Suns two of three meetings with the third cut short due to an in-game injury. Look for Miller to reassert himself as a force in this series tonight.

[Wilforth]

BOL

[EaglesPhan36]

Updated Record: 8-5 [+2.15]

Back in the right direction.

[EaglesPhan36]

Prop #14: [Game 5] Heat-Celtics Total Three Pointers Made OVER 11.5 [-115]
This has been a silent killer on the OVER in this series since Game 2. Game 1 was horrible with just 5 made threes and barely any attempts [23]. Since then however, Doc Rivers instructed his troops to shoot their open threes even if they've been slumping and it has worked for them. The Heat have matched the output with stud performance from Dwyane Wade leading the way. Since combined to go 5 of 23 in Game 1, Boston & Miami have both been on fire from beyond the arc. In Games 2-4, the two teams have combined to shoot 52 of 118 from distance [45%]. They're combined to hoist up right around 38-39 threes per contest, so netting 12 is a distinct possibility again. Both defenses have had some issues closing out on the shooters and Boston's home defense against the three on the season was a lazy 38%. There's really no surprises here. Wade & Richardson are the two most likely culprits to drain threes for the Heat [19/39 in Games 2-4]. We may find some stray makes from the likes of Chalmers, Wright & Arroyo, but the bulk of the Heat threes will be Wade and/or Richardson. No problem with that though as Wade has made 5,5 & 3 three pointers in Games 2-4. For the Celtics, a similar tale with Allen & Pierce being the main sources of threes. They are a solid 22 of 46 shooting threes in Games 2-4. Throw in Rondo, Wallace & maybe a stray from Robinson or Finley and you have a chance to make a good half dozen from beyond the arc. I've paid close attention to this prop and bet it on the side for a few games with success. These threes from these teams can come in bunches when they get hot. At this point, I'm not inclined to bet against someone like Wade or Allen doing half the damage themselves. So long as they get the attempts upwards of 38 or better, I think this has another chance to cash the OVER.

[EaglesPhan36]

Wow. 1 for 11 combined in the 1st half. Guess this one was predetermined. If it even sniffs 10 makes, I'll fall out of my chair.

[sweetjones55]

Good luck on your plays tonight.

[EaglesPhan36]

Well, well. Guess the whole threes come in bunches thing was right even though I have not been able to watch tonight. 8 of 11 from distance in the 3rd quarter. Have a chance in hell in the 4th now. Need 3!

[EaglesPhan36]

Updated Record: 9-5 [+3.15]

Quite an adrenaline rush on that one to get the late winner.

[EaglesPhan36]

Prop #15: [Game 5] Paul Millsap Total Points OVER 14.5 [-105]
Millsap has only failed to eclipse this total in one of the games in this series so far and that was in the last when he fouled out with 12 points. That left Millsap about 12 minutes shy of his average playing time in this series which likely would have given him ample opportunity to surprass this total. So Millsap's main foe is staying out of foul trouble. He did that in Games 1-3 where he finished with 15, 22 & 18 points. He's been hugely efficient in this series, shooting 63% from the floor. He'd do himself a favor if he remains aggressive and gets to the FT line. He's had two games with just 2 FT attempts and then 18 combined in the other two. He shoots about 69% from the stripe, so he could get himself a handful of points there. I think if Millsap stays clear of foul issues tonight and can get his 33+ minutes of playing time, this one has a legit shot to get done.

[EaglesPhan36]

Updated Record: 10-5 [+4.15]

Boom shackalacka.

[EaglesPhan36]

Prop #16: [Game 6] Trail Blazers-Suns Total Three Pointers Made OVER 14.5 [-115]
The math here is pretty simple. If these two teams get up 40 or more three point attempts, this prop will have a legit shot to cash on the OVER. They combined to go 17 of 45 from distance in Game 5. Game 4: 11 of 37. Game 3: 18 of 44. Game 2: 12 of 32. Game 1: 17 of 49. The Suns as always have more weapons to handle this prop with 5-6 players capable of filling the bucket from the land of plenty. Portland does not put up the volume of threes normally like the Suns do, but they still possess several solid shooters to back this prop. Miller, Bayless, Roy, Batum & Webster are all capable of stroking the three. Rudy Fernandez can be added into that mix, but his minutes have dwindled - still, look for him to throw up threes when he gets his minutes and that only helps.

[Glitch]

nice- way to turn things around- probably close to .500 counting the regular season now hahahaha jk. probs are sweet tho- keep up the good work

[KingKolzig]

J.Kidd o17.5 (points and assists) +125...........10 pts 8 assists, the man can do that

[EaglesPhan36]

Updated Record: 11-5 [+5.15]

Will continue to watch both the Magic & Suns in the semis to see where the books set the 3 point totals at. Anything under 16 seems like a decent OVER play, but will have to see what happens.

[EaglesPhan36]

Prop #17: [Game 6] Joe Johnson Total Points + Assists OVER 28.5 [+110]
Well it's nut check time for Joe Johnson and all the Hawks tonight. Johnson had been doing well this series until he and the rest of the Hawks disappeared in Game 5. Johnson has averaged just over 23 points per game in this series. That is skewed after just 16 in Game 5 where he fouled out. In Games 1-4, Johnson put up 22, 25, 27 & 29. The one thing that makes this prop tastier to me is that Johnson has been dishing out assists with regularity, averaging 6 per game in this series. Johnson has often gotten the label as a silent super star or maybe more appropriately a guy who isn't really in that super star class. This is another chance for him to prove his doubters. Considering Johnson is capable of putting up enough points to cover this prop, getting the assists is a bonus.

[EaglesPhan36]

Updated Record: 11-6 [+4.15]

Sunnuva bitch Joe Johnson. 22 & 6, shot 33% from the floor and missed the prop by one.

[THE HITMAN]

Tough break..........but you're right there with a good "feel". Probably fortunate to be that close anyway with Crawford getting a bunch in a very low scoring game. I would have gone down with you as I liked the over, but missed the prop by 1-2 minutes or so. Had Crawford on the over, small,tho.
GL

[EaglesPhan36]

Prop #18: [Game 1] Celtics-Cavaliers Total Three Pointers Made OVER 12.5 [-125]
This is a good series to watch the three ball prop. I don't think the books will generally set it at anything over 13 unless they really explode in Game 1, but in this area the OVER seems a solid shot. During the regular season in their four meetings, here's the breakdown:

15/30
13/39
16/39
15/36

As you can see, both teams had success shooting from distance against the other. Both teams have been on fire from the land of plenty in the playoffs as well with both shooting around or over 40% from beyond the arc. Ray Allen has been white hot for the Celtics and still figures to be the main source of threes for Boston. Pierce, Robinson, Rondo & maybe Finley will be the supporting players. For the Cavs, the options are plentiful from Lebron to Mo Williams to Anthony Parker to Delonte West, on down to Jamison & Jamario Moon. Cleveland was not gun shy about shooting it from deep against Chicago with 20 or more attempts in all six games. I think the key to beating this number on the over side in this series will lie with Boston. The Celtics must start this series as they ended the Miami series, shooting open threes. Doc Rivers challenged his team to do that and they responded. I think that is something they must do in order to beat or compete with Cleveland. So if Cleveland will be happy to put up 20+ threes per game, then I think if Boston can put up in the high teens, this prop will have a shot to hit OVER more often than not. Will ride it to start and adjust accordingly after the 1st two games.

[tokio]

Your analysis is sharp. Looks like an easy play today. Good luck!

[KingKolzig]

o12.5 is rising steadily. its already at -140 at 5dimes and a whooping -170 at a few others, crazy

[THE HITMAN]

Carib Over 12.5 -115, best I see right now.

[KingKolzig]

Carib Over 12.5 -115, best I see right now.

incredible. i would have loved that price. i had to lay off cause i couldnt find a decent price on it.

[mundane]

well maybe it was a blessing in disguise! none of these kokz are shooting 3's

[EaglesPhan36]

Yeah. 7 attempts in a half isn't gonna get it done. Still like this prop in this series potentially, but this is pretty poor. Can't really blame Boston I guess, I'd run layup drills all day long too with Rondo and Garnett. Just can't believe the Cavs have shot so few. Oh well, not that it's gonna even be in the neighborhood ... but both teams can heat up quick if they decide to start shooting them. The last Boston-Miami prop I hit on the over was dead at the half too. Although at least they were shooting some.