[sweetjones55]

I am going to be rolling with the NJ/INDY UNDER 210.5 today. The public is pounding the opening line of 208.5 and the total has gone up accordingly to 210.5. 76% of the public is on the Over so far. New Jersey is coming off a double OT victory and is on back to back. Indiana is also coming off a tough fought win @ Cleveland. I think both teams will come out shooting a low percentage.

They have played three times this year. Twice they went under the total that is set for tonight scoring 198 and 174. The one time they did go over a total light tonights they scored 226 (121-105). THis game almost looked rigged for the over. A lot of crazy things happened for this baby to go so far over.
#1 NJ shot 39 free throws and Indy shot 26 free throws That is just an insane amount of free throws.
#2 Indy hit 13 three pointers out of 23 (56%). I really don't expect that amount of free throws because of the strong ref numbers on the under or the ridiuclous 3 point % for Indy tonight since Indy is on B2B.

Here are some of the stats I really like that support this play. Number one, Dick Bavetta is reffing this game tonight. The unders in the games Bavetta is reffing are hitting at a 68% clip so far this year. The other two refs tonight also favor the under highly. Mark Lindsay is 27-33 O/U and Gary Zielenski is 29-39 O/U.
All three refs combined are 75-111 O/U. That averages out to them hitting the Unders in games at 60% clip.

Another two stats I like are how these two teams have fared on B2B against totals.
NJ is 7-12 O/U on B2B. NJ is hitting under at a 63% rate on B2B
Indiana is 6-15 O/U on B2B. Indy is hitting under at a 72% rate on B2B

NJ/INDY UNDER 210.5 LOCKED

NUGGETS NO PLAY (Tony Brothers reffing)

[kobefanatic]

how about milwaukee against the shitty celtics?

[sweetjones55]

how about milwaukee against the shitty celtics?

I would definitely lean Milwaukee as the Celtics are just the biggest underachievers in the NBA. The line and line movement early on is very telling. The Bucks were -2 a month ago at home and that was WITH Bogut. Bogut accounts for more than 1 point ATS yet the Bucks open up at -1 and with public pounding Boston line goes to Bucks -1.5. I may make a play on this game but haven't capped any games other than Denver thusfar.

[dume walker]

If you suspect public's going to jump heavy on Spurs, do you recommend waiting for the line (once it's posted) to creep down on Denver? Also, any caution on the fact that Denver has not been particularly scintillating on just one day's rest?

And thanks for the nudge on OKC tonight vs. the Suns. I knew how good their record is after an ATS loss, but I was hesitating with them going against the Suns. You pushed me into the right territory. Thanks again.

[kobefanatic]

I would definitely lean Milwaukee as the Celtics are just the biggest underachievers in the NBA. The line and line movement early on is very telling. The Bucks were -2 a month ago at home and that was WITH Bogut. Bogut accounts for more than 1 point ATS yet the Bucks open up at -1 and with public pounding Boston line goes to Bucks -1.5. I may make a play on this game but haven't capped any games other than Denver thusfar.

i hope the bucks win this tom, and jennings with the kick to KG's balls

[sweetjones55]

If you suspect public's going to jump heavy on Spurs, do you recommend waiting for the line (once it's posted) to creep down on Denver? Also, any caution on the fact that Denver has not been particularly scintillating on just one day's rest?

On games I love a lot I usually play the opening line for about half the units I plan on putting on them. I will then wait and see the early movement on make my decision. I think the line will stay flat on this game or maybe go to -6, this usually happens with plays like this as Vegas is trying to get a lopsided amount on one side. You would think they would drop the line to Denver -5 or -4.5 as the public will be pounding on SA but this is not always the case.

[dume walker]

I would definitely lean Milwaukee as the Celtics are just the biggest underachievers in the NBA. The line and line movement early on is very telling. The Bucks were -2 a month ago at home and that was WITH Bogut. Bogut accounts for more than 1 point ATS yet the Bucks open up at -1 and with public pounding Boston line goes to Bucks -1.5. I may make a play on this game but haven't capped any games other than Denver thusfar.

Some other incentive on getting down on the Bucks...
They're 15-3 ATS when playing without rest.
They're 13-2 ATS against teams from the Atlantic Division.
Of course a lot of that was with Bogut. How concerned do you think we should be about that?

[sweetjones55]

Some other incentive on getting down on the Bucks...
They're 15-3 ATS when playing without rest.
They're 13-2 ATS against teams from the Atlantic Division.
Of course a lot of that was with Bogut. How concerned do you think we should be about that?

Yup they are downright filthy without rest. I think the line should tell you all you should need to know about Bogut being out. They gave the Bucks almost the same line tonight as they did a month ago with Bogut in the line up.

[dume walker]

One other line I jumped on early... Pacers giving 9.5 to the Nets. Pacers have been playing some tough ball as of late. And NJ's coming off that double overtime win over the Bulls. Jumped on that -9.5 when I saw it was already moving to -10. Dumb move or no?

[sharper2]

Lost a great deal of money in the last spurs/nuggets match up, enough to make it a game i'll always remember. I remember all the reasons why I took nuggets -6.5 too. Spurs were struggling on the road, nuggets dominant at home, tony parker out, the nuggets had just beaten SA at their homecourt a week before that without melo i'm pretty sure, seemed like a big time layup. be careful is all i'm saying. i do like bucks -1 though.

[SparJMU]

Where is the best online book to bet the early line? 12:30 am eastern time and I can't find any lines. Maybe 1 or 2 up on MB but no liquidity.

[migz]

Hey SJ, Line goes to MIL-2. Nice! RLM?

[sweetjones55]

One other line I jumped on early... Pacers giving 9.5 to the Nets. Pacers have been playing some tough ball as of late. And NJ's coming off that double overtime win over the Bulls. Jumped on that -9.5 when I saw it was already moving to -10. Dumb move or no?

I like this play. Pacers are very good at home and NJ obviously sucks. I can't imagine the worst team in NBA history possibly covering a spread on B2B with double OT. Pacers are -11.5 so I definitely think you made the right call there.

[paulnikolo]

tail you on this one, sj!

[sweetjones55]

I am going to stay away from the Bucks Celtics game. Bucks is my kind of play with stats, situation and RLM all backing the Bucks but I just have a bad feeling about the game.

[gshock1]

How confident are you on the Nuggets? Was going to take them today, but have taken a beating the last couple of days so thinking about just staying away.

[sweetjones55]

How confident are you on the Nuggets? Was going to take them today, but have taken a beating the last couple of days so thinking about just staying away.

I like them a lot. I'd like to see the opening line, line movement, and public betting numbers first. I may go big/heavy depending on those three things.

[napalmrain]

Brothers is reffing the game

[sweetjones55]

Brothers is reffing the game

O wow you are right.. He's the only ref that will make me jump ship on any home team. This is not good.

[migz]

I am going to stay away from the Bucks Celtics game. Bucks is my kind of play with stats, situation and RLM all backing the Bucks but I just have a bad feeling about the game.

Thanks I might play Bucks-2.

[napalmrain]

Yeah I know sweet and I was loving this pick so much... He was the ref for the Clippers game against Sacramento and the home team won+covered the spread... Maybe it Will be two times in a row?

[sweetjones55]

Thanks I might play Bucks-2.

It's not a bad play in the least. I am just being very, very selective at this point because I am up this week and my week closes tomorrow night. I am just waiting for a game to go big/heavy on to close it out this week.

[migz]

It's not a bad play in the least. I am just being very, very selective at this point because I am up this week and my week closes tomorrow night. I am just waiting for a game to go big/heavy on to close it out this week.

Thanks, me too. Last day today.

[imaricer86]

Sj u like kings tonight? I love the den play

[sweetjones55]

Sj u like kings tonight? I love the den play

No line out yet, want to see it first.

[migz]

SJ, the public is on BOS? %?

[paulnikolo]

sj, your thoughts on phi+7/mem game?

[axxL]

migz 59% is on Boston (SportInsights.com).

[sweetjones55]

SJ, the public is on BOS? %?

twominute warning.com/bettracker.htm

SBR doesn't let me post the actual link, it blacks it out for some reason which is why there's a space between minute and warning. Just type that in all together above.

[kobefanatic]

looks like milwaukee is the play, boston might tank again

[sweetjones55]

Wow, Denver opens at -7.

[Baller85]

I like Denver, Spurs suck on back to backs.

[sweetjones55]

Denver quickly goes down to -6.

[sweetjones55]

I like Denver, Spurs suck on back to backs.

Spurs are 7-9 ATS on back to back, that isn't that bad.

[fsugolf]

gl tonight SJ