[sweetjones55]

I am going to be rolling with the NJ/INDY UNDER 210.5 today. The public is pounding the opening line of 208.5 and the total has gone up accordingly to 210.5. 76% of the public is on the Over so far. New Jersey is coming off a double OT victory and is on back to back. Indiana is also coming off a tough fought win @ Cleveland. I think both teams will come out shooting a low percentage.

They have played three times this year. Twice they went under the total that is set for tonight scoring 198 and 174. The one time they did go over a total like tonights they scored 226 (121-105). THis game almost looked rigged for the over. A lot of crazy things happened for this baby to go so far over.
#1 NJ shot 39 free throws and Indy shot 26 free throws That is just an insane amount of free throws.
#2 Indy hit 13 three pointers out of 23 (56%). I really don't expect that amount of free throws because of the strong ref numbers on the under or the ridiuclous 3 point % for Indy tonight since Indy is on B2B.

Here are some of the stats I really like that support this play. Number one, Dick Bavetta is reffing this game tonight. The unders in the games Bavetta is reffing are hitting at a 68% clip so far this year. The other two refs tonight also favor the under highly. Mark Lindsay is 27-33 O/U and Gary Zielenski is 29-39 O/U.
All three refs combined are 75-111 O/U. That averages out to them hitting the Unders in games at 60% clip.

Another two stats I like are how these two teams have fared on B2B against totals.
NJ is 7-12 O/U on B2B. NJ is hitting under at a 63% rate on B2B
Indiana is 6-15 O/U on B2B. Indy is hitting under at a 72% rate on B2B

NJ/INDY UNDER 210.5 LOCKED

[PickSix]

Thanks SJ55. You are a beast!

[MrTwiz]

Great stats sj, love people who support their picks with logical info. Keep up the good work, thinking it may go higher. I'll wait till a little closer to game time, love the pick though

[QUEST001]

Thanks for your input SJ..keep up the great work..

[sweetjones55]

Thanks SJ55. You are a beast!

Great stats sj, love people who support their picks with logical info. Keep up the good work, thinking it may go higher. I'll wait till a little closer to game time, love the pick though

Thanks for your input SJ..keep up the great work..

No problem guys. Good luck to you on your plays tonight.

MrWhiz, I think the number it's at now is a good number to play. I don't think it will go any higher, might even see some RLM down to 210.

[sweetjones55]

The Sacramento/Dallas opening line is very interesting. The opening line was Dallas -4, Sac +4. I find this interesting because Dallas has owned Sactown beating them five times in a row and three times already this year. Last time Dallas played @ Sac they were favored 4 and won by 8. Vegas responds to Dallas' domination over Sacramento by giving Sac the same exact line +4 they had when they were beat at home by 8 .

Obviously Joe Public is hammering Dallas to no avail. About 90% of the public is on Dallas so far, this is a HUGE majority that is not a nightly occurence. The public steam has raised the line up to +5. I am a big fan of taking these kind of underdogs at home on the weekends, they are usually pretty solid plays. I also love fading Joe Public on these kind of games also and in general most of the time.

I am leaning Sacramento +4 as the line doesn't really make a whole lot of sense. It is very tough for any team in the NBA to complete a four game sweep let alone cover a 5 point line on the road in order to do so. Also Dallas is on B2B and playing their 3rd game in 4 days. Dallas is 9-10 ATS on B2B and Sacramento is 23-14 ATS with a day of rest. Bad teams win in bunches and Sacramento did win their last game @ home vs LAC. I really do think Sacramento has a chance to pull of this win tonight.

Kings +5 Lean

[Wilforth]

sweetjones,

I agree with your Sac +5 lean. Your reasons are solid and it's actually one game that could milk the public dry.

[ANGRYBLACK]

NY/Indy under210.5 placed. Let's get it!!!

[Wilforth]

NJ/INDY UNDER 210.5 LOCKED

Looks like Warriors/Clippers is also going UNDER 227.

[killersweet]

SJ, what do you think about memphis tonight?

[sweetjones55]

SJ, what do you think about memphis tonight?

I hate the reverse line movement and the fact that the public is on memphis, easy no play IMO.

[sweetjones55]

Good luck to everyone on their plays tonight.

[Premierr23]

good luck SJ! im with you on the under!

[sweetjones55]

I am going to be rolling with the NJ/INDY UNDER 210.5 today. The public is pounding the opening line of 208.5 and the total has gone up accordingly to 210.5. 76% of the public is on the Over so far. New Jersey is coming off a double OT victory and is on back to back. Indiana is also coming off a tough fought win @ Cleveland. I think both teams will come out shooting a low percentage.

They have played three times this year. Twice they went under the total that is set for tonight scoring 198 and 174. The one time they did go over a total like tonights they scored 226 (121-105). THis game almost looked rigged for the over. A lot of crazy things happened for this baby to go so far over.
#1 NJ shot 39 free throws and Indy shot 26 free throws That is just an insane amount of free throws.
#2 Indy hit 13 three pointers out of 23 (56%). I really don't expect that amount of free throws because of the strong ref numbers on the under or the ridiuclous 3 point % for Indy tonight since Indy is on B2B.

Here are some of the stats I really like that support this play. Number one, Dick Bavetta is reffing this game tonight. The unders in the games Bavetta is reffing are hitting at a 68% clip so far this year. The other two refs tonight also favor the under highly. Mark Lindsay is 27-33 O/U and Gary Zielenski is 29-39 O/U.
All three refs combined are 75-111 O/U. That averages out to them hitting the Unders in games at 60% clip.

Another two stats I like are how these two teams have fared on B2B against totals.
NJ is 7-12 O/U on B2B. NJ is hitting under at a 63% rate on B2B
Indiana is 6-15 O/U on B2B. Indy is hitting under at a 72% rate on B2B

NJ/INDY UNDER 210.5 LOCKED loss

The under is a loser. O well, just a small loss as I didn't go big/heavy on it. On to tomorrow.

[Wilforth]

The under is a loser. O well, just a small loss as I didn't go big/heavy on it. On to tomorrow.

Too early to tell. Some shitty 2H shooting can still get this game UNDER.

[sweetjones55]

Too early to tell. Some shitty 2H shooting can still get this game UNDER.

Trust me it's all done. Indiana isn't playing any defense whatsoever. There are just too many shots being taken in this game, 90 shots in 1H is a lot.

[Wilforth]

Don't forget that there were only 37 points in the 4Q of the last meeting.

[Wilforth]

Scoring is down now!

[sweetjones55]

Scoring is down now!

LOL you reverse jynxed it on me, scoring right back up. 46 points in the 3rd with 3 minutes left. It's all over literally.

[sweetjones55]

Don't forget that there were only 37 points in the 4Q of the last meeting.

There is no chance in the world that happens tonight, much better chance that they score 100 in the 4th tonight.

[Wilforth]

It's settled already. No way it goes UNDER.

[PickSix]

SJ55, are you gonna make the Kings play official?

[sweetjones55]

SJ55, are you gonna make the Kings play official?

No I am not going to make it an official play. I just don't like the fact the Kings have nothing to play for but lately the teams with nothing to play for having been doing pretty damn well ATS. Kings is a solid play IMO especially with the RLM from +5 to +4.5 on a lot of sites but I am laying off. Good luck to you if you take them.

[sweetjones55]

Very happy with a 0-1 small losing night tonight. Stayed away from the Nuggets and a heavy loss. Also stayed away from the Kings and a small loss there. I was very close to putting those both in.

[gshock1]

Very happy with a 0-1 small losing night tonight. Stayed away from the Nuggets and a heavy loss. Also stayed away from the Kings and a small loss there. I was very close to putting those both in.

Great foresight on the Nuggets game. Took them for the game @ -6 for 1 unit but then took the Spurs @ the half for 5 units so made out +4.

Do you have any leans for tomorrow? I really like the Blazers ML, a lot.

[sweetjones55]

Great foresight on the Nuggets game. Took them for the game @ -6 for 1 unit but then took the Spurs @ the half for 5 units so made out +4.

Do you have any leans for tomorrow? I really like the Blazers ML, a lot.

Blazers ML could be a good play. Honestly though I would rather see Kobe in the line up as the Blazers ML will have more value that way. I hate fading teams without their star player, it's not that easy all the time. I do think that the Blazers have been playing great ball lately. They are 7-3 last ten and only 3 losses were to Mavs, Suns and Nuggets.
I would probably also lean under in this game but want to see that total before I make that decision.

[shoebox]

Smart laying off the nuggs SJ

[sweetjones55]

Smart laying off the nuggs SJ

It wasn't that hard. I pretty much AutoBet any road team that I think has a decent chance with Brothers reffing a lot. I knew that game wasn't meant to be when I saw him reffing. It was just a sign.

[beanbag]

gl on the picks man

[doctor_on_call]

It wasn't that hard. I pretty much AutoBet any road team that I think has a decent chance with Brothers reffing a lot. I knew that game wasn't meant to be when I saw him reffing. It was just a sign.

sj55 my man thanks for your reasoning about the sas/den. i "felt", though im not really sure, that i was able to derive an under bet from it, and it hit.
will be waiting for your tomorrows play.

[sweetjones55]

sj55 my man thanks for your reasoning about the sas/den. i "felt", though im not really sure, that i was able to derive an under bet from it, and it hit.
will be waiting for your tomorrows play.

I liked the under in that game also. There was actually a bunch of plays I liked tonight but I am just waiting on one I really like a lot to just pound it and end my week right. There wasn't anything that I absolutely loved tonight.

[jonblayze8]

sj, are you going to start a playoff thread?