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Key's NBA Line Friday 4-2-10
No play yesterday, took a day off
Indiana, -5.5, 181
Charlotte, -6, 185
Washington, +4.5, 194.5
Boston -4.5, 203
Memphis, -2.5, 210.5
Detroit, +8.5, 214.5
Cleveland, -2, 187
San Antonio, -3, 187.5
Golden St, -2, 231.5
LA Lakers, +2, 200.5
Miami-Indiana UNDER 193.5
I guess bettors and books are still looking at the torrid pace the Pacers were setting earlier in the season, but the Pacers have a different prospectus now. They used to run and gun and ignore the defense but now have steadied their personal scoring pace (last 10) to a current 101.9 average and have vastly improved defense to allow only 95.4 ppg (last 10). They gave us a very nice under versus Sacramento (by 10.5) Tuesday by playing to those exact averages. The Pacers have no shot at the playoffs, but the Heat are in at #6 right now and have no desire to drop that seed lower. Their forte is defense and they are relying on it heavily to carry them forward. These two have already met three times this season with the Pacers averaging only 82 ppg, so why should the Heat, winners of all three at 107.7 ppg change anything? By now some astute reader has said whoa, wait a minute, that is 189.7 ppg, pretty close to the posted total and far above Key's own line of 181. The difference is that both teams are not playing to the style they were on January 19, when the last of the three was played. At that time, both had more offense and less defense than they are showing now. The Heat are scoring 94.4 ppg recently (last 10) but are giving up only 85.2 ppg, for a very good average margin of victory of 9.2 ppg. The scoring minus positive margins for both teams equates to 180.6, very close to my projected 181, and all three of my methods stay under, the very highest being 189.3.
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Originally Posted by streakyrocket22
