[sweetjones55]

Ok so today we got the Los Angeles Clippers rolling into Dallas to face the Mavericks. I am really feeling the Clippers and here is why. The line opened up at Dallas -10 and with 60% of the public on Dallas the line has dropped to -9.5 nearly everywhere online, nice early RLM in favor of the Clippers. My local book still has them at -10 as of right now.

Dallas is an apalling 3-26-1 ATS at home so far this year, they can't buy a cover at home. I haven't seen ATS numbers that bad for a home team like that in my life. The Clippers are 3-0 ATS last 3 @ Dallas and are fully healthy tonight.

The Clips have been struggling as of late going 0-5 on a road trip and losers in 9 of their last 10 and 2-8 last 10 ATS. I think they turn it around tonight though as Dallas has also been struggling losing 3 of their last 4, all 3 losses being big double digit losses. Dallas also is on B2B and are traveling from New Orleans while LAC had an extra day of rest for this game, this is a HUGE factor into the play. I don't see LAC winning this game but I do think that they keep it within 10 points pretty easily. I wouldn't be shocked to see LAC up at half as Dallas always struggles in the 1st half and then turns it on in the 2H and wins by 4-6 points.

Clippers +10.5 -120 LOCKED

[ron8698]

Hi Sweetjones55 , good to see your write up , you have me thinking Clippers tonight with the points , BOL Player

[sweetjones55]

Thanks Ron, Dont think too long. This line just had some more nice reverse line movement down to +9 LAC

[mehow]

i also feel the same way - lac should cover. GL

[paco]

Goodluck, but RLM is sometimes overrated. Same thing happened in Atl game but Hawks still covered and almost won the game SU.

Goodluck , but I am thinking Dallas will blow these bums out the building

[alukk]

charlote is the best play of the day i guess

[ron8698]

Ok sweetjones55 , I`m riding with you , i got the clips +9.5 , BOL ,

[sportfan]

Actually this game is a tough one , dallas usually don't cover big spread @ home , in the other hand clippers can't be trusted , they may lose by dd

[HoulihansTX]

Never bet the Clipps. They are an unpredictable team. They will give up, and their effort will be shit if they are not in a position to win coming into the 4th qtr.

[sweetjones55]

Goodluck, but RLM is sometimes overrated. Same thing happened in Atl game but Hawks still covered and almost won the game SU.

Goodluck , but I am thinking Dallas will blow these bums out the building

We'd all be billionaires if we could just follow reverse line movement and win every time. I'm more than aware of that but I still do like having rlm on my side. I'm mostly playing it because of LAC recent success @ Dallas and Dallas' recent struggles ats @ home this year more than the rlm.

[sweetjones55]

Can someone post some of the referee stats for today? I'm a little busy at work today.

[landers781]

working on it

[HoulihansTX]

Nothing suspicious about these refs, at least not like Bavettas alarming record.

Combined Home Team ATS (80-84-2)

[paco]

Never bet the Clipps. They are an unpredictable team. They will give up, and their effort will be shit if they are not in a position to win coming into the 4th qtr.

My thoughts exactly

[sweetjones55]

Never bet the Clipps. They are an unpredictable team. They will give up, and their effort will be shit if they are not in a position to win coming into the 4th qtr.

Never say never in gambling. Any team is capable of covering and as shitty as LAC is, Dallas is even more shit @ home.

[sweetjones55]

Thanks Landers and thanks Houli. I'll take 80-84, with a slight road team advantage.

[sweetjones55]

Thanks Landers and thanks Houli. I'll take 80-84, with a slight road team advantage.

[SportsTerminator]

You do know Dallas was HUMILIATED last night and their coming back home angry right...

[sweetjones55]

Yes I am more than aware of that but anger doesn't always equate to blowouts. They have a tough time blowing anyone out at home and I expect the same tonight because LAC wants to start this road trip off right after going 0-fer on their last one. I think Dallas can also easily give up a lead in the 2H as most teams do on B2B.

[BettingWizard]

when have you ever seen the mavs angry

[anjaru]

I like Dallas here just because they got their asses handed to them last night. Any team with Baron Davis can be expected to give up by the 3rd quarter. It will be a game time decision for me on whether or not to jump on the Mavs, but good luck. I think this is an absolute coin toss and you can't fault someone for going either way.

[sweetjones55]

You do know Dallas was HUMILIATED last night and their coming back home angry right...

Dallas is 1-6 ATS at home coming off a 10point loss playing angry. I think if anything this supports my play even more.

[sweetjones55]

I like Dallas here just because they got their asses handed to them last night. Any team with Baron Davis can be expected to give up by the 3rd quarter. It will be a game time decision for me on whether or not to jump on the Mavs, but good luck. I think this is an absolute coin toss and you can't fault someone for going either way.

Baron Davis OWNS the Mavericks.

[lakerboy]

You do know Dallas was HUMILIATED last night and their coming back home angry right...

Blown out by the knicks at home last week and respond by beating a 5 man bulls team by 7 points (bulls on b2b as well)

Baron Davis OWNS the Mavericks.

when have you ever seen the mavs angry

Dirk Nowitski- so scary

[BillAccpetor]

As much I hate betting by double digits the mavs... Clippers seems too easy... RLM should make you think clippers will cover.

[Vinny]

Risky game. Clippers can't play defense. Mismatches all day with Butler vs. Gordon and Nowitski vs. Gooden. ARE YOU KIDDING ME? Tough for davis to use size against Kidd. Terry is streaking at the right time. I wouldn't touch this game. Dallas has the most depth in the NBA after the lakers. Kaman may have tough time in the post against Haywood, a top 3 post defender in the league. Pistons over Indy is a lock.

[sweetjones55]

LB, you on LAC tonight?

[PAULYPOKER]

I have Dallas winning by 9 so with slight room for error this game is a no play for me

[S.K.M.]

I dont think RLM is really a factor here. Most books are back to 10 now and some sites are showing Mavs below 60%. There is no way I would play the Clips in this spot. They could cover obviously but I think this is one of those situations where you try to play the 'sharp' angle and get burned. Then after the game everyone complains about how shitty the clips are and how they have no heart and how they are never gonna bet on them again.

[quick$]

Now if Mav were playing spur or a team that level then they migh win or cover but with clip, though they've kill me numerous time, I just think win not cover.

[quick$]

clip +10 4x
det -4 2x
lo.wiz 182 1x
den -7 1x
my weak point: reverse Clip+Det 1x
This is thru my local.
GL

[Grosshhit]

If it was any other team besides the Clips I would take it, but how can someone actually bet the Clippers. Im on the Mavs

[quick$]

I ask myself that too....how could I do that to myself.....it's sadistic!!!
but i am going with it...as above.

[sweetjones55]

Risky game. Clippers can't play defense. Mismatches all day with Butler vs. Gordon and Nowitski vs. Gooden. ARE YOU KIDDING ME? Tough for davis to use size against Kidd. Terry is streaking at the right time. I wouldn't touch this game. Dallas has the most depth in the NBA after the lakers. Kaman may have tough time in the post against Haywood, a top 3 post defender in the league. Pistons over Indy is a lock.

You bring up great points with the mismatches and I agree that Dallas has great depth buttt at the end of the day they have covered 3 times at home all year! You just can't ignore that. I don't think they can cover a double digit spread @ home on B2B with travel included.

[MadRussian]

Good luck everybody