[NBAStats]

I see these two common sports gamblers fallacies posted over and over again. They are huge leaks in betting strategies, and if you are doing them you are leaking money.

1) Comparing the original line to a halftime line in order to derive value. This is wrong on so many levels. A game line is just that, it is a game line. A halftime line is just that, a halftime line. Any attempt to compare the two to gain value makes absolutely no sense. It's like comparing apples to oranges.

For example a team is favored by 10 for the game and 5.5 for the first half. They go into halftime with the favorite up 1, and the second half line is posted at 5. So many people with say "ZOMG now I can bet the favorite at only -6 for the game!!!! Pound it, pound it, pound it!!!". This doesn't make sense at all, and if you are doing this stop it right now. Look at it on the flipside (which can also be faulty thinking). Originally the oddsmakers instilled the favorite as 5.5 first half favorite, and a 4.5 second half favorite. Now the second half line is 5.5, yet you think you are getting value when comparing the halftime line to the full game line? Doesn't make much sense now does it?

2) Hedging a bet for the sake of hedging. When I say hedging a bet, I mean placing a bet on the other side at some point in the game in order to prevent yourself from being left open to losing a bet. Yes, you are limiting your risk but more importantly you are limiting your earning potential. If you have the best of it, don't give away equity for the sake of limiting risk. If you feel the need to do this, then your original bet was overbetting your bankroll. Cut back your units if you need to on original bets, but for the love of God stop hedging! I have no problem with placing a bet during a contest than runs contrary to your original bet, but make sure you are doing it for the right reasons. If you think the new bet has value on it's own, then by all means make the bet. But don't make it solely to limit risk. You are giving away two things here, juice and equity. The juice seems small in relative to an entire bet, but things like this kill players in the long run and make the books ton of money. Giving away equity is also a surefire way to reduce your earning potential.

[lakerboy]

Someone told me a long time back that if you hedge at ht all the time you arent gonna make it in this game. Some folks have no control. What you must always do is take the game line into full acct and work from there.


Good post buddy - but hardly any one here will listen to you which is the sad part.

[NBAStats]

Someone told me a long time back that if you hedge at ht all the time you arent gonna make it in this game. Some folks have no control. What you must always do is take the game line into full acct and work from there.


Good post buddy - but hardly any one here will listen to you which is the sad part.

I used to be a chronic hedger, and pissed away many winners by doing so. It feels awesome when you hit a hedge right in the middle and win both sides, but in the long run it's losing you money. I wish I had listened the first time someone told me that. It's one of those things that people get addicted to when they have been betting for a year or two. It seems cool and smart, but in reality it's garbage.

[PlatinumBerg]

Good points, I think we would make a good think tank.

I think the observations I made about LakerBoy that I posted in another thread would do some good here as they are good points.

- Generally fades the public consensus. Reason: The books want the majority of the public to lose so they can win.

- Observes line movements, especially near game time. Reason: Books usually want a even amount of bets on both sides of the game, that way they will be even on the wagers, and just eat up the juice.

- Wait until a few minutes before the game starts to place your wager, especially if you are not confident about your play. Reason: You will see the line movement history and whether late money is coming in and at which side.

Of course, there are the intangibles such as experience, knowledge of the sport you are betting on, and last but definitely not least, LUCK.

[tbonmusikman]

great and well said. Thanks.

[bretb27]

i agree for the most part... tonight suns game was a good example. suns by 6 and were tied at halftime. halftime line was suns -4.5... 1.5 point swing.. doesn't that make it a pretty good value? considering that they were tied at the half would lead me to believe so. (the suns pushed the game line and won the halftime like, fyi.)

[bretb27]

i'm just an average capper, if i'm wrong about the above post let me know!

[NBAStats]

i agree for the most part... tonight suns game was a good example. suns by 6 and were tied at halftime. halftime line was suns -4.5... 1.5 point swing.. doesn't that make it a pretty good value? considering that they were tied at the half would lead me to believe so. (the suns pushed the game line and won the halftime like, fyi.)

This was exactly the kind of thinking I was arguing against. Sure it held true tonight, but in all reality it's faulty thinking. You could have also looked at it another way. Say the first half line was suns -3.5 (not sure but for example purposes it doesn't matter), then the oddsmakers originally thought the second half line was Suns -2.5. Now the second half line is published at -4.5, which is 2 different than what was originally thought. By this line of thinking the Blazers were the play at halftime. Which line of thinking is correct? Neither one. A halftime bet is just that, comparing it to the original full game or the original second half total isn't a good strategy. If you go back and chart every game on either theory, you will not find either one to be profitable. A halftime bet is a halftime bet. Many things have changed since original lines came out, and trying to derive value in this fashion is a losing strategy.

[NBAStats]

i'm just an average capper, if i'm wrong about the above post let me know!

And I'm just an average capper as well, but I have gambled long enough to know some leaks that are common to lots of folks.

[This_Is_Life]

I gotta disagree with point 1, but im not the biggest advocate of it...i still think you have to cap it

i dont think youre giving enough credit to the linemakers who are damn good at what they do...i think there are a lot of cases (not all) where point 1 would be +EV

[NBAStats]

I gotta disagree with point 1, but im not the biggest advocate of it...i still think you have to cap it

i dont think youre giving enough credit to the linemakers who are damn good at what they do...i think there are a lot of cases (not all) where point 1 would be +EV

I'm not giving oddsmakers credit? The same ones that are making full game lines are making half time lines.

[mlb]

Thanks for this thread and the input ... Originally I just kind of ignored this ... But then read it again and need to work on both .. Thanks

[NBAStats]

Thanks for this thread and the input ... Originally I just kind of ignored this ... But then read it again and need to work on both .. Thanks

Even though I was the one that I posted it I still need to work on both as well. I incorrectly did it for so long that I still get the urge to try to middle shit at half rather than sticking with what is the best of it. I thought about it tonight as a matter of fact.

[mlb]

Even though I was the one that I posted it I still need to work on both as well. I incorrectly did it for so long that I still get the urge to try to middle shit at half rather than sticking with what is the best of it. I thought about it tonight as a matter of fact.

Which game?

[bretb27]

The line for the first half is typically pretty damn close to, if not exactly half of the full line. Half time lines are always based on the final score of the first half. If a team is favorite by 15 and are down 10 at the end of the first half, they won't be favorite by 25 in the second half that's just stupid. I guess what I'm trying to say is that lines makers know what the first half and total lines are in advance, but the halftime line is never planned and made up on the spot

[NBAStats]

Which game?

Hawks. I bet Hawks +4 live, and wanted to bet Spurs +2 second half, which made them equivalent to +4 for the game (giving me an either side by 3 for both bets, or either side by 4 for one bet).

[mlb]

Hawks. I bet Hawks +4 live, and wanted to bet Spurs +2 second half, which made them equivalent to +4 for the game (giving me an either side by 3 for both bets, or either side by 4 for one bet).

ahh .. Good decision but let's say spurs win 5 or 6 .. Would you be kicking yourself or no?

[NBAStats]

The line for the first half is typically pretty damn close to, if not exactly half of the full line. Half time lines are always based on the final score of the first half. If a team is favorite by 15 and are down 10 at the end of the first half, they won't be favorite by 25 in the second half that's just stupid. I guess what I'm trying to say is that lines makers know what the first half and total lines are in advance, but the halftime line is never planned and made up on the spot

I understand what you are saying, and appreciate the input. There are cappers out there who are able to make a living off of halftime lines- I'm just not one of them.

[vyomguy]

So what do you suggest we do for half time lines NBAstats?.....not play half time lines at all?

I might agree with your statement for point spreads...but thats not true for totals. I play lot of second half totals and find lot of value in it. Most of the times, I would like to see the pace of the game in the first half which helps me decide O/U in second half. And many times I get better line than the original line and there is lot of value in it.

[NBAStats]

ahh .. Good decision but let's say spurs win 5 or 6 .. Would you be kicking yourself or no?

I think it is only human nature that I would have kicked myself, seeing the hedge/middle crossed my mind. But then I would have reminded myself of all the times I hedged away winners. If I had liked the Spurs second half, I would have had no problem pulling the trigger, but not solely on the basis of limiting risk at the expense of giving away value.

[NBAStats]

So what do you suggest we do for half time lines NBAstats?.....not play half time lines at all?

I might agree with your statement for point spreads...but thats not true for totals. I play lot of second half totals and find lot of value in it. Most of the times, I would like to see the pace of the game in the first half which helps me decide O/U in second half. And many times I get better line than the original line and there is lot of value in it.

I'm not at all saying to stay away from half time lines. I'm just saying bet it because you think it's a good bet and not because you think you derived some value from comparing it to the original line.

[mlb]

True man .. Thanks again .. Need to work on this

[bretb27]

I understand what you are saying, and appreciate the input. There are cappers out there who are able to make a living off of halftime lines- I'm just not one of them.

i'm just glad you could understand what i was trying to say lol, i even confused the hell outta myself! Lately I've been betting halftimes pretty hard, but with mixed results. My main problem is i just love the action! I would watch the grass grow if i had money on it, so i think halftime bets for me are usually just for fun and not so much for profit. add that to your list of betting no no's!

[This_Is_Life]

I'm not giving oddsmakers credit? The same ones that are making full game lines are making half time lines.

sorry my statement was worded wrong

i meant for the full game lines...those lines are a lot more efficient than HT lines and should be given a lot of respect, more than whatever HT line they give

anyway BOL with your betting

[suicidekings]

- Generally fades the public consensus. Reason: The books want the majority of the public to lose so they can win.

Not exactly. It's not the volume of bets that move lines, but rather the volume of money on each side. A 75%-25% split in betting volume on a game and an unmoving line implies that the books are happy with the distribution of money on each side. Sometimes that means the books feel the public is backing a loser, but more often it just means that there's more money per wager being placed on the 25% side. Bigger bets tend to be made by sharper bettors (for the most part), so fading the public is equivalent to following the smart money.

- Observes line movements, especially near game time. Reason: Books usually want a even amount of bets on both sides of the game, that way they will be even on the wagers, and just eat up the juice.

Again, money moves lines, not betting volume. I'm not trying to pick at you as you had it 90% right, but I feel like the nuances of this idea are important for how you're go about reading lines. Early movement can be very telling as well with respect to sharp money coming in.

It would be interesting to do a case study of a game's line movement in a thread like this.

[Wade Dwayne]

Same, i never hedge unless i only have one or two legs of a massive parlay im talkin paying $40 to each $1 left on the parlay. In this case id rather guaranteed winnings rather than getting boned on 1 leg of a 10 leg bet.

[colout]

Someone told me a long time back that if you hedge at ht all the time you arent gonna make it in this game. Some folks have no control. What you must always do is take the game line into full acct and work from there.


Good post buddy - but hardly any one here will listen to you which is the sad part.

Hello Lakerboy. I have followed you for a while, and I will be happy if you would tell where you are watching the market? I refer to fluctuations in the odds..

- colout

[BettingWizard]

I agree with not hedging for the sake of hedging.......if the bet is not +EV then it's not a hedge.


you gotta pick your spots with the halftime lines.......if two low scoring teams shoot the lights out in first half for example, there is value in the 2nd half under.

[$Burm$]

Good points, I think we would make a good think tank.

I think the observations I made about LakerBoy that I posted in another thread would do some good here as they are good points.

- Generally fades the public consensus. Reason: The books want the majority of the public to lose so they can win.

- Observes line movements, especially near game time. Reason: Books usually want a even amount of bets on both sides of the game, that way they will be even on the wagers, and just eat up the juice.

- Wait until a few minutes before the game starts to place your wager, especially if you are not confident about your play. Reason: You will see the line movement history and whether late money is coming in and at which side.

Of course, there are the intangibles such as experience, knowledge of the sport you are betting on, and last but definitely not least, LUCK.

You make good pts, but there is one thing that i disagree with a lot with wat u said for ur reasoning on fading the public...my guess is that LB fades the public consensus because it means that sharp $ is coming in on the other side of wat the public is betting...in my opinion oddsmakers dont care who wins ATS, all they care about is that even $ is comin in on both sides so that they can clean up and win with the juice $ that people lose..The consensus %'s ARE NOT the amount of $ that are coming in, its the % of tickets that are coming in on both sides..By this i mean is that 75% may be on Duke -5, but those people part of the 75% could be betting only 50-100$ on each ticket while the 25% has more sharps on it meaning that the tickets coming in are much greater leaving the oddsmakers with 50-50 coming in on each side and guaraneeing themselves + $$$$..to many people think that the oddsmakers take a stand on a side and are hoping that the non-public favorite wins, its not true, they dont care who wins cuz they are guaranteed to win $ if its 50-50..thats why its easy to see wat sides sharps are on cuz if the public consensus is high on one side and the line moves against them u kno a ton of sharp $$ is coming in on the other side cuz the oddsmakers have to try and adjust the lines to get more people on the public side and get it to 50-50 $ for the game...