You guys don't know me so probably don't care about my lines, which some guys at another popular site seem to respect. I will just skip that until you know me better and trust me a little more.
NBA Record Here, 4-0
Golden St +1.5
When I saw this line my first reaction was "Oh My God." I can not believe bettors will continue to back the Raptors in spite of repeated failures, no defense, no ability to play on the road (10-21), no ability to cover on the road (13-18), no ability to beat the better half of the league (10-24), and a total lack of prospectus. If we are to rely on the Sagarin Ratings, which seem to have some respect here, the Raptors should be +1 tonight, and brother they still wouldn't look good to me. They are 9-13 versus the West this season (41%) and wouldn't even have a winning record (by one game at 32-31) if they were in any other division than the worst, and in the lesser conference versus the better. The Warriors face a far tougher schedule in the Pacific Division of the Western Conference and since they don't win a lot of games they get no respect from bettors at all, and that is why they are 36-27 ATS overall and 18-14 at home. My opinion of the Raptors is that they gave a very best effort versus the Lakers in the opener of this four game swing through the West and probably consider Portland (tomorrow) a very tough date and may be sweating going home 0-4 for the trip, but you know what? That is exactly what they deserve and should get. If Sagarin wants to call this close and list the Raptors as the 18th best team in the league versus the Warriors at 25th that is his business, but my power rankings are versus probability to beat a spread, and I rank them Warriors 8th, Raptors 30th, dead last. Road favorite? Warriors all the way. BOL, Key
Keep up the good work Key..Went 11 out of 12 yesterday...U get lots of credit for that. I value your lines 100%...Pm them to me if youd like thanks brotha...
OK, guys. I seem to be getting along with everyone (winning helps) so I will start putting up the numbers again. Remember, they are a tool, and should be used just to verify your thinking, or, if you disagree, you may be right, but go do the research, as much as necessary, to confirm your opposite opinion. These lines will go a little better than 50% versus the books lines and about the only time I get clobbered is when I don't pay attention to my own creation (). I may not go with my numbers on everything, but they are mandatory for my POD.
Washington, +13, 189.5
Atlanta, -14, 201
Memphis, +2.5, 208
San Antonio, -11, 202
Houston, PK, 203.5 (this is not a typo)
Dallas, -8.5, 210 Golden St., -7, 223.5
Wow, your model has GOLDEN STATE to win by 7.
I like the OVER more as TORONTO Raptors play fast pace tempo as well. Keep up the good work, btw got the points appreciate it.
Excellent Analysis, my model has GSW to win by 5. Not by 7 and I agree the Sangarin Ratings is a little Bias. I wouldnt rank TORONTO completely out of the question as 7 games were played without BOSH and hes one of the main reasons why TORONTO is even in the play off hunt. Although I give the slight edge to GSW, this isnt a LOCK but agree GSW at home should be favoured. Cant see how TORONTO is -2 at the moment.
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). I may not go with my numbers on everything, but they are mandatory for my POD. 