[SiMON2g]

Was looking at pelicans when live and book was giving 1.05-1.07 for pelicans when they had like a 13 point lead or something. Similar siutation with bucks laying 1.15-1.20 when up around 8-9 and it dropped to like 1.10 when they were up around 12.

Laying large amounts here to win when it is only a lock the team will see out the game... I could have laid $4,950 on pelicans to win when it was 3rd and they up 13 but i didn't. When I say lock to see out the game, Im not talking about for instance the bucks game.. they're playing Indiana and atleast theres some chance of a comeback, make that bet 10 times and Indiana comes back once or twice. So even though i've listed those odds ignore that game, the lock comes in the Pelicans game, these types of games when a good team is playing a trash team, and they have no chance of coming back. Indiana could make it back against Bucks, but Sac aint coming back on Pels there..

Anyway, so say.. you only backed if it was an absolute lock like this... warriors vs chicago, and dubs are up 14 and books giving 1.03, pelicans vs sac today, celtics vs atlanta when they got a 12+ lead giving 1.10 for example. Key is factoring out anyh team that could theoretically make a come back; any mediocre team could.. so most of the time you would be throwing alot of these plays out.

The key again is to protect bankroll, but still make money... we can make $300-600 per stake here but by still protecting our bankroll by throwing out any play where a team, theoretically, because no not every team CAN make a come back, so i want to target these teams who 1. are notoriously bad at playing from behind 2. do not have the offensive power to mount a comeback with the time remaining, im going to go into this further.. in another post.
and lastly we actually are getting value.

Protecting bankroll again is a priority, but risking so much over so many multiple times is extremely risky. Thats why I want to protect against this risk further, so again many plays will be thrown out and yes you never know what may happen.

But say for instance with 17 bets, starting at $4,950, 17 bets at an average odds of 1.065
then becomes $14020.

Thoughts? Obviously a bad idea in certain places - but is there an area to take advantage of here?

[jtoler]

you know how it goes, lose one and you have to win a ton straight just to break even. scoring and runs are quick in the nba. warriors lost to clippers at home last year by 19 being up 9 with 6 and a half min. to go in the 3rd qtr. they lost to the kings at home being up 7 with 2 and a half minutes to go in the 3rd qtr. they lost to the pistons at home by 8 being up 13 with 4 min. to go in the 3rd qtr.

pelicans lost to the kings by 7 in OT at home being up 8 with 2 and a half min. to go in the game. pelicans also lost to the knicks at home being up 8 with 3 min. to go in the game.

[IBetYou]

Greater variance when betting extreme odds (high or low) so you actually need to be even more of an expert than if say you're betting the spread. Not a good idea at all if you're a novice.

[kingdom]

you know how it goes, lose one and you have to win a ton straight just to break even. scoring and runs are quick in the nba. warriors lost to clippers at home last year by 19 being up 9 with 6 and a half min. to go in the 3rd qtr. they lost to the kings at home being up 7 with 2 and a half minutes to go in the 3rd qtr. they lost to the pistons at home by 8 being up 13 with 4 min. to go in the 3rd qtr.

pelicans lost to the kings by 7 in OT at home being up 8 with 2 and a half min. to go in the game. pelicans also lost to the knicks at home being up 8 with 3 min. to go in the game.

do you just happen to remember all these toler?