1. #1
    the3basketeers
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    2017-2018 NBA ATS Basketball Power Ratings Comparison

    2017-2018 NBA ATS ATS ATS Closing Spreads by Bovada
    Power Ratings Comparison % Wins Losses http://stats.bovada.chalkpartners.com/stats/gamelog/basketball/nba/20733
    the3basketeers 0.56708 727 555 la3basketeers@gmail.com
    Talisman Red 0.55938 716 564 http://talismanred.com/ratings/nba/
    RoundTable (rts) 0.55529 703 563 http://www.rtsratings.com/index_nba.asp
    TeamRanking 0.55406 702 565 https://www.teamrankings.com/nba/ranking/overall-power-ranking-by-team
    Dunkel Index 0.54602 700 582 http://dunkelindex.com/rankings/basketball/nba/
    Massey Ratings 0.54489 698 583 https://www.masseyratings.com/NBA/0/ratings?yr=2018
    Sagarin Golden Mean 0.54176 694 587 http://sagarin.com/sports/nbasend.htm
    ESPN's Basketball Power Index 0.53846 679 582 http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/page/Basketball-Power-Index/espn-nba-basketball-power-index
    Dokter Entropy (TimeTravel) 0.53672 687 593 http://www.timetravelsports.com/r2018.NBA
    Power Ratings 0.53386 678 592 http://powerratings.com/basket.htm
    Sagarin Rating 0.53354 692 605 http://sagarin.com/sports/nbasend.htm
    Sonny Moore 0.53208 680 598 http://sonnymoorepowerratings.com/nba.htm
    StatFox 0.52058 645 594 http://www.statfox.com/nba/power/

  2. #2
    danshan11
    I am good at coin flips, I really am!
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    wouldnt a win loss record ats with power rankings and not adjusted for injuries or sitting players be a random thing? what weight can you put in ATS results without accounting for injuries or rest or tons of other factors? I think a better measurement would be closeness of the ranking to the closing line and that still would be a straw grab because of the same factors

  3. #3
    danshan11
    I am good at coin flips, I really am!
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    and also I would not use Bovada lines for anything, I mean anything

  4. #4
    the3basketeers
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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan11 View Post
    wouldnt a win loss record ats with power rankings and not adjusted for injuries or sitting players be a random thing? what weight can you put in ATS results without accounting for injuries or rest or tons of other factors? I think a better measurement would be closeness of the ranking to the closing line and that still would be a straw grab because of the same factors
    The basic purpose for a Power Rating is to develop a data model that accurately replicates the past and potentiality predicts future game differentials. Add-ons like home advantage, error correction for blow-outs, injuries, player rest, days off between games, distance between games and other variables should be considered prior to betting.

    Ideally, if you want to win bets, you'd want the predictive piece to always beat the spread, but with human nature at play take one that beats the spread more often than the others. For the long play, a 0.567 ATS play would have won $11,650 last season on $110 bets (assuming a 110 vig). Add in the applicable variables and who knows how much better the bettor would have done.
    Last edited by the3basketeers; 09-25-18 at 06:00 PM.

  5. #5
    the3basketeers
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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan11 View Post
    and also I would not use Bovada lines for anything, I mean anything
    I just wanted to use a commonly available source so that the results of the comparison would be totally transparent. I'd be happy to use an alternate source. However, I'm pretty certain that the results would be similar. Thanks for your feedback!

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