Originally Posted by
TwoCats
These are the NBA system rules (with some of the Morrison B/S still included) from the Oct 2012 (with a few of my comments in red):
Here’s the NBA betting system in detail. As long as you strictly follow my betting guidelines below, you will be winning almost all of your NBA bets. (Only believe that if you want to!)
In a nutshell, you will be betting that one team is going to win at least one game against the spread in an 3-game away series where all three of their opposing teams are from the opposite conference. This is a bet that you will win more than 97% of the time. ( - maybe.)
Before I go into detail on how to make the bets, I will go over the money management system. There are only three bet values you should stick to: Bet A; Bet B; and Bet C.
Bet A = Your beginning bet. You can, for example, set your beginning bet at $100 (I suggest that you set your own figure lower than this) when you first start out.
Bet B = In case Bet A fails, you make bet B to make up for any loss you’ve suffered from Bet A, plus any profit you would have achieved from bet A. So, if your Bet A was $100, your Bet B can be $250.
Bet C = In case Bet B fails, you make bet C to make up for any loss you’ve suffered from Bet A plus Bet B, plus profit you would have achieved from bet A. So, if your Bet A plus Bet B was $350 (note my comment above), your Bet C can be $650.
There is no Bet D, or E, or anything thereafter. If you lose Bet C, you lose the bet.
However, do not be concerned, because losing a Bet C is something that will almost never happen. (Like I said, believe that if you want to!) I’ll talk more about that later.
Here’s the betting system:
1. Check the NBA schedule and mark down any series where one team will be playing at least 3 consecutive games on the road (away from home) versus a team on a different conference.
2. For the team that will be playing 3 or more consecutive games on the road with a different conference, make a bet A for the team on the road on its first day by buying 3 points.
3. If you lose bet A, make bet B on the next day for the same team, buying 3 points.
4. If you lose bet B, make bet C on the next day for the same team, buying 3 points.
One exception is to never bet on a team that is either the best or worst on the road. If your team has the worst road record in the league, then you should pass on that series due to the higher risks involved. On the other hand, if your team has the best road record in the league, then Vegas would often set the line too high, so it’s best to pass on that series as well.
Also, check up on the injuries before making a bet. If your team has its best player injured, then you should just pass on that series, regardless of any injuries there may be on the other team.
If you do not understand what buying points mean, let me explain:
Each game that you wager on will have a point spread. For example, in a Houston vs Dallas game, the spread may be +5 for Houston and -5 for Dallas. If you bet on Houston +5, it means that Houston can lose the game by 4 points to Dallas, and you will still win the bet. (Actually a true statement!) If you bet on Dallas -5, it means that Dallas must beat Houston by 6 points or more for you to win the wager. Now, if you buy 3 points for Houston, that would bring the spread to +8 instead of +5. This means that now you will still win the bet even if Houston loses to Dallas by 7 points. Similarly, if you buy 3 points for Dallas to bring the spread to -2, it would mean that they can now win by only 3 points or more and you will still win your wager.
Whenever you win a bet in any series, stop and move on to the next one.
Here’s an important betting exception to keep in mind: If your team is a favorite of -3 or greater (that means it is expected that your team will beat their opponent by a margin of at least 3 points), then you should make a wager on the Money Line (betting on the Money Line means that you’ll win the bet as long as your team wins the game. No point-buying is necessary). The reason why is because if your team is the favorite, and manages to win the game but at the same time fail to cover the spread, it dramatically increases the risk to continue betting on the same series.
Handling road trips that start in-conference
I recommend that you only start betting on a series if the team’s consecutive 3-game road trip begins immediately after their home game. This also means that if a team is on a 6-game road trip vs. 6 opponents from the opposing conference, then you should only wager on the first 3 games (assuming that they played a home game immediately before starting the road trip).
Now, an exception would be that if a team has been playing road game(s) within their own conference before they start 3 consecutive games vs. 3 opponents from the opposing conference, then you should only treat the 3-game series vs. the opposing conference as eligible for play ONLY if that team has lost ALL of its road games from the beginning of the road trip by more than 3 points against the spread.
V2.0 System Update
In order to maximize your NBA winnings, we will get a little less strict on the filter for our 3-game series.
The v1.0 system calls for one team to be on 3 consecutive road games against 3 teams of the opposite conference in order for a play to be eligible.
Now, you may be surprised to know that as long as there are at least 2 teams that are from the opposite conference out of the 3 consecutive road games, then it is enough to make the series to be profitable for play.
Basically, everything about the v2.0 system remains the same, except for the fact a series is eligible for play as long as at least 2 out of the 3 teams are from the opposite conference, rather than requiring that ALL 3 teams must be from the opposite conference.
V3.0 System Update
In order to maximize your NBA winnings, we will get less strict on the filter for our 3-game series.
The v2.0 system calls for one team to be on 3 consecutive road games against at least 2 teams of the opposite conference in order for a play to be eligible.
Now, you may be surprised to know that as long as a team is starting a 3-game road trip, it is profitable to play them regardless of what conference their opponent may be in.
Basically, you want to bet on all 3-game road trips with the v3.0 system, with the same betting mechanics as in the original system.
Basically, everything about the v3.0 system remains the same as the v2.0 system, except for the fact a series is eligible for play as long as it’s the start of a 3-game road trip, regardless of what conferences the opponents may be on.
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That was it - just be careful out there!
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