Oklahoma comes home after a 2 game road trip where they won a couple games that could have gone either way. They've put together a long winning streak, and I don't see that coming to an end today. Their home record is pretty much equal to their road, as they haven't been too strong of a home team. However, with the latest win streak, I think you'll see both the players and fans a bit more into it. Not to mention, OKC has put together a good string of home wins recently (Dalas, Atlanta, Denver). Obviously of those 3 teams, Dallas is the only good road team, but it's not like Phoenix is any good on the road. Other than that streak they put up on the road, Phoenix is no good, and never has been good on the road. If you play an up and gun style with a 35-36 year old PG, you need the crowd to keep you going. Those legs get tired and the 3's stop falling on the road. No Nash tonight, which kind of worries me, but Dragic on Westbrook is a joke. He's been overshadowed by Durant's point streak, but Westbrook is on a streak of his own.
I judge most games on match-ups and situations rather than trends, and match-ups clearly favor the Thunder. My only problem is Kristic on Amare, but I have never considered Amare a big impact player (personal opinion). Suns already run a limited rotation and with Nash out, even though others will step up, the Thunder Defense will be too good. I'm not expecting a blow-out, but Thunder should pull away late and win by anywhere from 9 to 15 points.
pick: okc -6.5
On Sunday night I placed a large wager on the Hawks, only to see them implode on the 4th. I then proceeded to make a large in-play bet on the Utah Jazz when they were down a few points. A bet I should have never made, nor did I deserve to win. But they did win, and they upset the Blazers who have looked horrible as of late. Either it's chemistry issues or the fact that Roy's return has thrown off the team - either way they have issues. But the best way to overcome these issues is to put together some wins on a road trip. This is it for the Blazers, it defines their season. Clinging onto that 8th spot, only adds more fuel to win. I hate fading the Nets because I feel as if they are due for a surprise any game. But they never surprise. They're just a terrible basketball team. Either way this is more of a bet on the Blazers then against the Nets. You could put any other weak them instead of the Nets, and I'll still take the Blazers at -7.5. Camby played great against the Jazz, and Roy is slowly getting better. I think you'll see Portland play some good defense and efficient offense today. I like the match-up of Camby on Lopez as well as Andre on Harris. Andre can manhandle Harris in the post, and Roy will do the same to Lee. Nets are too small, and Blazers are big and physical. Except for Aldridge who has a more finesse game, but he will have Yi on him, who he can easily shoot over. I think they will come out strong and maybe lose their lead nearing half time, but will blow it open in the 2nd half and win from anywhere around 10 to 20+.
I like your read on Amare'. The guy is the most overrated star in the league. The guy relies solely on his quickness and explosion. He has zero post moves. I'd take Al Jefferson over him everyday. I like your two picks, Portland is a little inconsistent for me to make a play on but I like how they match up to the Nets and I think the expected bumpy transition with Camby coming into the fold is now over and they are ready to play some ball. I think the under is the play in that game as well even as low as 183.5 as it is now.
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02/23 my picks
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