[danshan11]

I got 162 at bookmaker

[danshan11]

I moved BOL but bookmaker has got someone heavy on the under for that game its down to 161, someone they trust kinda scares me but I moved BOL, lets see if the vote is approved or denied at the end???

[danshan11]

told you that bookmaker play scared me that line is closed at 162 bad bet on my part! looking the same way for the 2nd game 177 is looking fair, looks like I will at least pay juice on that game too

[7deuceoff$uit]

Again, it is so painful to watch teams play late in close games. Can't get off a good pass after a timeout, missing late FT's and then holding the ball to get off the final shot when you're down 3????? Wash had time to go for the quick two or at least shoot the 3 and u can foul if u miss. Who cares if they go up 4-5 with 9 seconds?! You're already losing. WNBA players brain fart all the penetrating time in these games.

[danshan11]

bush league, it is not a female version of the NBA, it is bush league, they are like semi pro local football players, miles and miles from the NBA. Miss 2 free throws out of 4 in the final minute

[7deuceoff$uit]

I don't think they understand the concept of a 2 for 1 possession either.

[thomorino]

Yeah, the WNBA is not the NBA, its still a good league to bet.

Tough day, 1-2, I think I win the Washington game if Della Donne doesn't get hurt and Seattle blows a near 20 point lead again.

12-7

[danshan11]

first game lose the over cause they cant shoot 1 free throw and get to OT
lose 2nd game because they go to OT and still only go over by 1 point. That game was the perfect example of value, most people got pushes and or wins and I lose because I bought at 177 and it closed at 179

[danshan11]

My markets are live now, you guys can bet them if you want, if you need me to put more btc in let me know

https://fairlay.com/market/603-seattle-604-phoenix-1/
https://fairlay.com/market/603-seattle-604-phoenix/
https://fairlay.com/market/601-atlan...-washington-1/
https://fairlay.com/market/601-atlanta-602-washington/

[danshan11]

and yes I did a half point not sure why really that was just the spread I had, I should have done a slight lean moneyline but anyway

[danshan11]

oh my gosh Dream +6 is the line out right now, I bet full bet at 3 books and now its down to 3 but man wow!

[thomorino]

Yeah, I think its the uncertainty over the Della Donne injury, I heavily doubt she plays, bone bruises are the same as fractures, although obviously we don't know the severity.

I will be on Phoenix and Washington 1st quarter.

[danshan11]

at -2 where it is now, that would mean she is probably not going to play, lets see where pinnacle opens!

[thomorino]

I'm on Washington -.5 1Q and Phoenix -.5 1Q

[danshan11]

why those quarter lines are hardly ever moving and its hard to get line value on the quarters

[thomorino]

I disagree, I've done great all year with quarter bets, most people don't bet them and I don't think they are as sharp. I think Washington comes out strong at home and I think Phoenix is stronger early when Taurasi has fresh legs, I think Phoenix comes out desperate facing elimination.

[danshan11]

what did you bet them at ? and what are they closing at, is it enough to cover the juice?

[thomorino]

I posted the bets - the juice is usually the same as a normal straight bet

[danshan11]

yeah but I am saying you are getting -.5 for say -105 and what is that -.5 money at when it closes?

[thomorino]

I"m laying -115 for both bets today, normally the juice is the standard -110 though

[danshan11]

and you agree that the line will probably close there at about -115 or close to that, so my question is how do you get value out of that or you are not looking for value and you think those are just winners period?

[thomorino]

I don't bet derivative lines the same as fulll game lines. I think Phoenix and Washington will come out strong and play with more energy early than their opponents, its not a handicap based on power ratings of how good the teams are - its a situational handicap.

[danshan11]

cool OK, so its not line value you just think they are gonna win, I can respect that, I never bet that way, I bet to get value never cause I like something

[thomorino]

You don't understand - I think I'm getting line value because of the motiviational angle at that point in the game. The line matters to me, but its not a bet based on power rankings.

[danshan11]

I think I understand but I am just saying that
you think the line -115 is fair and the only reason you bet it is because you think it will win, right?
you bet at -115 and theoretically it closes at -115 which equates to no value, right?
dude I am getting confused a ton here lately so please explain it to me like I am a 3 year old and I just got out of ADHD class and you want me to understand this, please.

[danshan11]

like I just bet the Storm OVer 172 because I think it is low and should be 175ish so that to me is a play, I have no idea if they will score 200 or 100 points in the actual game, you see what I mean.

[thomorino]

The WNBA market is very inefficient because there isn't much liquidity, I think I'm getting value at the prices I bet these games at because I"m betting motivational angles that I think are not priced correctly in the market. I don't pay that close of attention to where lines open and close in the WNBA other than I obviously want to get the best line, line movement in the WNBA is 50/50 - as I said just not enough liquidity to have an efficient market.

[danshan11]

ATS:	858-878-28 (-0.07, 49.4%)

pretty small sample size but it seems pretty darn efficient

[danshan11]

but you are not really messing with lines on these plays, you just like the bet, I mean obviously you probably would not take that same quarter bet at -190 but you "think" they will win and that is why you bet it
I am not knocking you there is always more than one way to get back to the cage

[thomorino]

ATS:	858-878-28 (-0.07, 49.4%)

pretty small sample size but it seems pretty darn efficient

Well that doesn't take into consideration what the juice was and different books have different lines too.

I have 2 primary betting angles I bet with in the WNBA, power ratings, if the line is off from where I have it at. And motivational angels, like if a team is in a flat spot or off an embarrassing loss, I don't look at line value for motivation angles like my angles for tonight, I obviously look very close at line value when betting off power ratings.

[danshan11]

see I dont know how to value those things so I cant consider them
if the team is in a good mood, I dont have a clue what that is worth
or embarrassing loss I dont know how to value that either.
all those type things are hard to value so I have to stay away from them I cant bet on things I have no idea of their value.

thanks for the info and best of luck!

[Buddelbaby]

I play Over 159 Washington! This is a good Pick tonight!

[thomorino]

1-1 to go to 13-8 looks like Phoenix is getting all the call tonight

[thomorino]

I think Seattle should still win Talbot out is huge - Seattle +3.5 live betting

[thomorino]

13-9 after losing with Seattle in live betting, I like Seattle at +2.5