[t-wizzle]

Wow. Surprised they’re favored after getting beatdown tonight.

[jjgold]

Harden played perfect too

Curry played so so

[A Quant]

Wow. Surprised they’re favored after getting beatdown tonight.

Not trying to be a jerk here, but if you don't understand why the Rockets are favored in Game 2, you may want to take a step back from gambling.

If sites like SBR want to really help bettors, they should throw up a lecture series about how and why lines are created.

Winning while betting on sports has little to do with understanding ball screens, zone defenses. It's a numbers game. It's why professional athletes make such shitty gamblers--- Barkley, Iverson, Pete Rose all great players-- really shitty gamblers. Show me a guy who understands raw data and you have a guy who wins. There is more data available for a gambler in 2018 than at any other time, and guys just don't seem to know how to use it.

[RangeFinder]

not trying to be a jerk here, but if you don't understand why the rockets are favored in game 2, you may want to take a step back from gambling.

If sites like sbr want to really help bettors, they should throw up a lecture series about how and why lines are created.

Winning while betting on sports has little to do with understanding ball screens, zone defenses. It's a numbers game. It's why professional athletes make such shitty gamblers--- barkley, iverson, pete rose all great players-- really shitty gamblers. Show me a guy who understands raw data and you have a guy who wins. There is more data available for a gambler in 2018 than at any other time, and guys just don't seem to know how to use it.

boom!

Post of the year

[t-wizzle]

Not trying to be a jerk here, but if you don't understand why the Rockets are favored in Game 2, you may want to take a step back from gambling.

If sites like SBR want to really help bettors, they should throw up a lecture series about how and why lines are created.

Winning while betting on sports has little to do with understanding ball screens, zone defenses. It's a numbers game. It's why professional athletes make such shitty gamblers--- Barkley, Iverson, Pete Rose all great players-- really shitty gamblers. Show me a guy who understands raw data and you have a guy who wins. There is more data available for a gambler in 2018 than at any other time, and guys just don't seem to know how to use it.

Lol okay guy. They’re favored because the line isn’t simply based on last nights game. We all get that. It’s based on an entire season of data. However with that said, playoff lines tend to fluctuate more to compensate for public perception as well as the shear increased volume of action. It’s also a must-win situation for Houston so books factored that in as well. Just because I’m surprised doesn’t mean I don’t understand the line.

[A Quant]

Lol okay guy. They’re favored because the line isn’t simply based on last nights game. We all get that. It’s based on an entire season of data. However with that said, playoff lines tend to fluctuate more to compensate for public perception as well as the shear increased volume of action. It’s also a must-win situation for Houston so books factored that in as well. Just because I’m surprised doesn’t mean I don’t understand the line.

No offense meant, but I see you are down 50 units in your picks thread.

What I highlighted explains why.

Playoff lines are sharper than any regular season game. They do not "fluctuate to compensate for public perception".

I don't know you from Adam, but can I ask, is this your first year betting NBA? Because I am surprised you would type that if you bet at any time in the last 7 NBA seasons.

And FWIW, there is not a single line generator who factors in "It's also a must-win situation for Houston". Wow. Where did you get THAT?

[ikid2groove415]

Line seems right - books begging for Houston betters? The typical must win game right? They will get buried again

[t-wizzle]

No offense meant, but I see you are down 50 units in your picks thread.

What I highlighted explains why.

Playoff lines are sharper than any regular season game. They do not "fluctuate to compensate for public perception".

I don't know you from Adam, but can I ask, is this your first year betting NBA? Because I am surprised you would type that if you bet at any time in the last 7 NBA seasons.

And FWIW, there is not a single line generator who factors in "It's also a must-win situation for Houston". Wow. Where did you get THAT?

So you’re going on a rant that essentially boils down to sample size and then you’re going to use 1 month of picks for me to paint a picture of my handicapping ability. Good stuff man.

The 76ers went from -5 in Game 1 in Boston to +2 in Game 5 in Boston. But please, tell me how the lines don’t fluctuate in the postseason.

[A Quant]

And again, it is numbers, numbers, numbers.

Pinny opened up Houston -2 +/- hook, it closed on 2. It bounced between 1-2 but even with all the GS money the # was not going to move off, and that "range" or is consistent with the PWA that Vegas had. Same for Game 2. The public may dribble up on GS, but pros will keep this # right where Vegas wants it.

This will have nothing to do with "Houston is in a must-win situation".

[A Quant]

So you’re going on a rant that essentially boils down to sample size and then you’re going to use 1 month of picks for me to paint a picture of my handicapping ability. Good stuff man.

The 76ers went from -5 in Game 1 in Boston to +2 in Game 5 in Boston. But please, tell me how the lines don’t fluctuate in the postseason.

Ummm, what?

You need me to explain to you the differences between Game 5, with Boston up 3-1 playing at home versus Game 1?

[SaffaCappa]

Boston opened as PK for Game 1, moved to +1 tip off.
Boston opened as PK for Game 2 ...

Houston opened at -2 for Game 1
Houston opened at -2 for Game 2

Not rocket science, the books set the lines on raw data and no emotion - that;s why the books win long term ...

[A Quant]

boston opened as pk for game 1, moved to +1 tip off.
Boston opened as pk for game 2 ...

Houston opened at -2 for game 1
houston opened at -2 for game 2

not rocket science, the books set the lines on raw data and no emotion - that;s why the books win long term ...

winner winner.

Another.

Game 1 5/1 Toronto -7 v Cleveland
Game 2 5/3 Toronto -7 v. Cleveland

[italianbandit]

Quant is a ghost—put that in your data machine.

[t-wizzle]

Ummm, what?

You need me to explain to you the differences between Game 5, with Boston up 3-1 playing at home versus Game 1?

Holy shit man. Contradict yourself more. Now you’re saying the series score mattered. Wow. Sit this one out my guy.

[t-wizzle]

Quant is a ghost—put that in your data machine.

Haha for sure.

[A Quant]

This really is not that hard folks.

Another example.

Game 1 Golden State -8.5 v Spurs
Game 2 Golden State -8.5 v Spurs

Here is my point, that the OP missed. Vegas will not react to GS winning big last night with some crazy line change. It will remain right smack where Game 1 opened.

[ikid2groove415]

Boston opened as PK for Game 1, moved to +1 tip off.
Boston opened as PK for Game 2 ...

Houston opened at -2 for Game 1
Houston opened at -2 for Game 2

Not rocket science, the books set the lines on raw data and no emotion - that;s why the books win long term ...

This guy is right case closed !!

[A Quant]

Holy shit man. Contradict yourself more. Now you’re saying the series score mattered. Wow. Sit this one out my guy.

I looked at your posting history. Wow. You have a history of losing pick threads. I had no idea you were such a bad gambler. You are horrible. Your posting explains a lot.

[t-wizzle]

Game 1: Boston -4 vs. Milwaukee
Game 2: Boston -1 vs. Milwaukee

Game 1: Portland -5 vs. New Orleans
Game 2: Portland -6.5 vs. New Orleans

We can do this all day.

[t-wizzle]

I looked at your posting history. Wow. You have a history of losing pick threads. I had no idea you were such a bad gambler. You are horrible. Your posting explains a lot.

Crazy isn’t it? It explains so much.

Love these ghost accounts at SBR.

[DOM_Toretto]

Join date: 05-14-18

Public perception is definitely factored into line making. It’s why you never see 20pt lines in playoffs but often see 20pt results. It’s why championship games in all sports tend to have smaller lines than if it were played regular season when the only difference is much heavier action and public perception.

[A Quant]

This took me just a few seconds to find.

Crazy isn’t it? It explains so much.

Love these ghost accounts at SBR.

Big deal. I abandoned a thread on a message board. Lol who cares. Take a look around. Everyone does it.

Yea my picks have been shitty this year. Sometimes that's just the way it goes. These playoffs have been a square's paradise.

But yea getting back to goat milk. Looks like he picked a winner here. You called the game over in the first half. That's an amateur move. You can try to flip it on me all you want but bottom line is you made an ass of yourself here and then followed it up by acting like a petulant child. Good work kiddo.

[A Quant]

Crazy isn’t it? It explains so much.

Love these ghost accounts at SBR.

Except I have posted at another site for 4 years.

I came here yesterday because of the New Jersey decision.

[t-wizzle]

Except I have posted at another site for 4 years.

I came here yesterday because of the New Jersey decision.

Lol sure ya did.

[SaffaCappa]

So who wins game 2 Quant?

[cincinnatikid513]

i cant bet a mike dantoni team in the playoffs hes a proven loser

[Mackballs]

So what you're saying is take the over?

[nyplayer33]

They will get destroyed at golden state..pound the gsw series line

[no1here]

Golden State sweeps, Quant you're not all correct as everything matters

[ikid2groove415]

Houston needs to get rid of Chris Paul - dude is old- go after Paul George - a good wing defender that can also score

[nyplayer33]

Gsw should be minus 2. Above poster about giving up gambling over outlook of houston line..idiotic. this isn't the bar exam

[nyplayer33]

Mike dantonio didnt lose the game..gsw are too good. Sports fans are dumb....sports talk shows thrive cause fans are dumb..

[ikid2groove415]

Steve Kerr said he took GSW +1.5 yesterday lol

[ikid2groove415]

Mike dantonio didnt lose the game..gsw are too good. Sports fans are dumb....sports talk shows thrive cause fans are dumb..

Mike d is a terrible coach - he doesn’t know how to adjust in games and halftime

[#deleteuber]

NBA will appoint very home friendly refs in GM2 in the west and Gm3 in the east (if cavs lose)