1. #1
    brewers7
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    NBA Thursday, 11-09-17...

    NBA Preview: The slow-starting Wizards are looking for revenge against the upstart Lakers for a loss at Staples Center two weeks ago.

    Los Angeles Lakers (5-6) at Washington Wizards (5-5), Thursday, 7:00 p.m. EST

    Line: Wizards -10.5. Total: 220.

    Washington is off to another slow start this season. At 5-5, they are three wins ahead of their 2-8 start from last season. However, their 0-5 ATS (Against the Spread) start at home this season is certainly worse than their 4-7 home ATS start from last year. Washington is 2-3 straight up at home this season, which matches their home record through their first 5 home games last season.

    The 2016-17 Wizards eventually broke out of their home slump at Capital One Arena on December 8 with a 92-85 win over the Denver Nuggets. That victory propelled Washington to a 17-game home winning streak, their second-best such streak in franchise history. The Wizards were 15-2 ATS during that home winning streak. So there is no need for panic in DC, although their fans were hoping for a better start than 5-5.

    However, a 5-5 start is just fine from the perspective of Lakers fans. Los Angeles suffered through a dismal 26-56 season in 2016-17. The saving grace for Lakers fans was the team getting the #2 pick in the 2017 NBA Draft, where the Lakers selected Lonzo Ball. The home-grown UCLA grad was heavily hyped to take over the leadership role for the Lakers.

    Los Angeles has some nice home wins this season against Detroit, Memphis and these Washington Wizards. The Lakers defeated Washington 102-99 in overtime on October 25. Brandon Ingram scored 19 points and grabbed 10 rebounds, while Larry Nance Jr. scored 18 points and grabbed 10 boards for the Lakers. Ball had 6 points 10 assists and 8 rebounds. Bradley Beal led all scorers with 28 points for the Wizards, while John Wall added 18 points and 9 assists.

    From a handicapping perspective, the Wizards are in bounce-back mode from an embarrassing home loss two nights ago against Dallas. The Mavericks beat Washington 113-99. This is also a revenge spot for Washington against the Lakers for the overtime loss two weeks ago in Los Angeles. The Lakers are on the back-end of a back-to-back after losing at Boston Wednesday night, while the Wizards have rest.
    The Vegas line looks way too high to me, which means I will pick the Wizards here and give the points.

    Injury report

    Lakers: Larry Nance Jr. is out with a fractured left hand. Wizards: Sheldon Mac is out for the season with a torn left Achilles tendon.

    NBA Fantasy Information

    Los Angeles: Brook Lopez ranks #1 for Center on FanDuel on Thursday with a $53.14 price per fantasy point for his last three games. Julius Randle ranks #1 at PF with a price of $62.74 per fantasy point over his last three games. Lonzo Ball ranks #5 at PG with a price of $45.77 per fantasy point over his last three games. Brandon Ingram ranks #3 at SF with a value of $56.00 at PG per fantasy point over his last three games. Jordan Clarkson ranks #1 at PF with a value of $76.91 per fantasy point over his last three games.

    Washington: John Wall ranks #3 at PG with a value of $47.10 price per fantasy point for his last three games. Kelly Oubre Jr. ranks #2 at SF with a value of $57.17 per fantasy point in his last three games.

    This is the link to my fantasy spreadsheet which is sorted to show the players who have the best value in fantasy points per dollar in their last 3 games. However, you can sort by 3, 5, 7 or 10 days.

    Fantasy Link

    Record:

    18-9 (regular season), +$810.

    Sides: 9-5
    Totals: 8-1
    2H: 0-3
    1Q: 1-0
    #1 Sides: 15-8
    #1 Totals: 17-6

    Sides: (1) Sac, (2) Was, (3) NO, (4) Hou, (5) OKC

    Totals: (1) Hou ov, (2) OKC un, (3) Sac un, (4) Was ov, (5) NO ov.

    Note: If I have a play, I will post it later today.

  2. #2
    brewers7
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    Edit, 3:25 p.m. EST:

    Sacramento Kings +6.5, laying $110 to win $100 – This is a chart-play for Sacramento and a fairly strong one. However, the Kings are not a good team, and chart-plays generally work better with better teams. Although I have seen bad teams run off some very nice chart-play runs over the years because they are dogs every game and manage to cover the Vegas spreads.

    I hesitate slightly here because the Sixers have covered 7 games in a row. I usually wait for a streak like that to end because it immediately becomes a fairly strong chart-play the other way once the streak ends. However, I have seen a lot of streaks end at 7. So I have designated the #7 as the “magic number” where most cover streaks end. Every now and then, there will be a season where 8 seems to be that number, but 7 generally is that number.

    The Sixers are playing great and the Kings are not very good, so it is tough to make a play like this sometimes. However, I have found out over the years I just have to trust the chart-play. Also, I am a dog player mostly in the NBA, and we are getting 6.5 points for a home dog. So we have value here.

    Other thoughts: I want to take the Cleveland / Houston over so bad. It is still a chart-play to ride out this Houston over streak after their under streak ended. Also, the Cavaliers have gone over 4 straight games, hitting 231 or higher every game. However, Houston is coming off a game where they scored 137 points and shot 59% from three-land and 59.3% from the field overall. Harden went nuts, shooting 19-for-25 from the field and 7-for-8 from behind the arc, many of them deep threes. It is very difficult to repeat those kind of shooting performances in back-to-back games. Even against a terrible defensive squad like Cleveland.

    Kevin Love also had a great shooting game last time out against Milwaukee. Everything points to an Over here, but I cannot quite pull the trigger based on how well Houston shot last time out and how well JR Smith and Love shot last time out.

    I also believe the Wizards should take out a lot of frustrations on the Lakers tonight and beat them by about 18 points or more. However, I just do not trust this Wizards squad at this point of the season. They were embarrassed by Dallas two days ago at home and have a revenge spot for losing to the Lakers two weeks ago in Los Angeles. It is hard for me to lay 10.5 points with a team that is 0-5 ATS at home. Sure they are “due” to cover a home game. However, being due to cover a home game does not guarantee that they will. The Lakers are scrappy.

    Good luck.

  3. #3
    Guy Guido Fieri
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    This post deserves for recognition for the analysis and effort. BUMP FROM FLAVOURTOWN.

  4. #4
    lakes_8
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    amazing work!

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