1. 02-16-10 05:04 PM #1
    CHAZ
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    System plays.....

    Trying a system I've been working on that comes up with the totals. I wouldnt recommend anyone tailing. Unproven just an experiment FOR NOW. I'll post the number total I come up with then see what Vegas has and go from there. I was hoping some of you could help notice trends I may not catch and things such as that.
    Last edited by CHAZ; 02-16-10 at 05:27 PM.
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  2. 02-16-10 05:07 PM #2
    mlb
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    Good luck ... Hope you land a rare winning system
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  3. 02-16-10 05:08 PM #3
    Pride>UFC
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    i've got a better idea, bet against the Nets..
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  4. 02-16-10 05:13 PM #4
    CHAZ
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    February 16th
     Philadelphia 76ers/Miami Heat OVER
    Mine:195
    Vegas: 190

    Charlotte Bobcat/New Jersey Nets OVER
    Mine: 194
    Vegas:187

    Detroit Pistons/Minnesota TimberwolvesNO PLAY
    Mine:198
    Vegas:198.5

    Chicago Bulls/New York KnicksNO PLAY
    Mine:198
    Vegas:198

    Oklahoma City Thunder/Dallas MavericksOVER
    Mine:199
    Vegas:195

    Memphis Grizzlies/Phoenix SunsUNDER
    Mine:210
    Vegas:221

    Houston     Rockets    /Utah JazzUNDER
    Mine:199
    Vegas:203

    Portland Trail Blazers/Los Angeles ClippersOVER
    Mine:196
    Vegas:193

    Sacramento Kings/Boston CelticsOVER
    Mine:202
    Vegas:199

    Los Angeles Lakers/GoldenState WarriorsUNDER
    Mine:208
    Vegas:218


    *First number is mine second is Vegas*
    Last edited by CHAZ; 02-16-10 at 05:57 PM.
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  5. 02-17-10 07:46 AM #5
    CHAZ
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    Quote Originally Posted by CHAZ View Post

    February 16th
     Philadelphia 76ers/Miami Heat OVER
    Mine:195
    Vegas: 190
    ACTUALLY: 183

    Charlotte Bobcat/New Jersey Nets OVER
    Mine: 194
    Vegas:187
    ACTUALLY: 197

    Detroit Pistons/Minnesota TimberwolvesNO PLAY
    Mine:198
    Vegas:198.5

    Chicago Bulls/New York KnicksNO PLAY
    Mine:198
    Vegas:198

    Oklahoma City Thunder/Dallas Mavericks OVER
    Mine:199
    Vegas:195
    ACTUALLY: 185

    Memphis Grizzlies/Phoenix Suns UNDER
    Mine:210
    Vegas:221
    ACTUALLY: 204
    Houston     Rockets    /Utah Jazz UNDER
    Mine:199
    Vegas:203
    ACTUALLY: 199
    *PICKED IT EXACTLY!!*

    Portland Trail Blazers/Los Angeles Clippers OVER
    Mine:196
    Vegas:193
    ACTUALLY: 196
    *PICKED IT EXACTLY!!*

    Sacramento     Kings    /Boston Celtics OVER
    Mine:202
    Vegas:199
    ACTUALLY: 187

    Los Angeles Lakers/GoldenState Warriors UNDER
    Mine:208
    Vegas:218     ACTUALLY: 198
    5-3 Good night! Even picked 2 exactly....
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  6. 02-17-10 07:55 AM #6
    TEViN-BRADFORD
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    5-3, very nice if you limit your picks too the games that have a 5 pt difference between your score and the vegas score you'd be 3-0
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  7. 02-17-10 08:43 AM #7
    CHAZ
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    For now though Im playing all possible plays to see the trends and help figure stronger better plays. Hopefully be able to adjust the weak points in it.
    Last edited by CHAZ; 02-17-10 at 11:31 AM.
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  8. 02-17-10 12:51 PM #8
    CHAZ
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    February 17th
    Indiana Pacers/San Antonio Spurs UNDER
    Mine:200
    Vegas:204

    Orlando Magic/Detroit Pistons OVER
    Mine:194
    Vegas:190

    Washington Wizards/Minnesota Timberwolves UNDER
    Mine:204
    Vegas: 207

    Toronto Raptors/Memphis Grizzlies UNDER
    Mine: 207
    Vegas:219

    New Jersey Nets/Miami Heat OVER
    Mine: 192
    Vegas: 187

    New York Knicks/Chicago Bulls NO PLAY
    Mine: 200
    Vegas: 200.5

    New Orleans Hornets/Utah Jazz UNDER
    Mine: 198
    Vegas: 202

    Milwaukee Bucks/Houston Rockets OVER
    Mine: 197
    Vegas: 194.5

    Dallas Mavericks/Phoenix Suns UNDER
    Mine: 208
    Vegas: 216

    GoldenState Warriors/Sacramento Kings UNDER
    Mine: 213
    Vegas:223.5

    Los Angeles Clippers/Atlanta Hawks UNDER
    Mine: 194
    Vegas: 196.5
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  9. 02-18-10 10:14 AM #9
    CHAZ
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    Quote Originally Posted by CHAZ View Post
    February 17th
    Indiana Pacers/San Antonio Spurs UNDER
    Mine:200
    Vegas:204
    Actual:177

    Orlando Magic/Detroit Pistons OVER
    Mine:194
    Vegas:190
    Actual:207

    Washington Wizards/Minnesota Timberwolves UNDER
    Mine:204
    Vegas: 207
    Actual: 207
    *The line moved down late afternoon so if you got on it early, the under was a win*

    Toronto Raptors/Memphis Grizzlies UNDER
    Mine: 207
    Vegas:219
    Actual:211

    New Jersey Nets/Miami Heat OVER
    Mine: 192
    Vegas: 187
    Actual:171

    New York Knicks/Chicago Bulls NO PLAY
    Mine: 200
    Vegas: 200.5
    Actual:224

    New Orleans Hornets/Utah Jazz UNDER
    Mine: 198
    Vegas: 202
    Actual: 188

    Milwaukee Bucks/Houston Rockets OVER
    Mine: 197
    Vegas: 194.5
    Actual: 226

    Dallas Mavericks/Phoenix Suns UNDER
    Mine: 208
    Vegas: 216
    Actual: 204

    GoldenState Warriors/Sacramento Kings UNDER
    Mine: 213
    Vegas:223.5
    Actual: 228

    Los Angeles Clippers/Atlanta Hawks UNDER
    Mine: 194
    Vegas: 196.5
    Actual:202
    LAST NIGHTS RECORD 6-3-1

    OVERALL: 11-6-1


    Plays with a difference greater then 5 are 5-1
    UNDER plays are 7-2



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  10. 02-18-10 10:21 AM #10
    ikerfi
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    Very good chaz !!!
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  11. 02-18-10 10:28 AM #11
    AzNDooM
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    Interesting System as I was using this system (I kind of figured it out once I looked at your numbers coinciding w/ data collerated from SBR) however lines have been co-related accordingly. Ive used a modified model that can add variables to the model with higher sample rates. Bustabook's model is probably a better example. But good job on doing what your doing.
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  12. 02-18-10 11:02 AM #12
    CHAZ
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    What variables are you using in your system? Things like B2B? Injuries? Rating system?

    Do you have a thread with your plays posted?

    Also, do you think the plays that are greater then 5 do well because they are lines inflated by Vegas or lucky hits?
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  13. 02-18-10 12:01 PM #13
    CHAZ
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    February 18th
    Cleveland Cavaliers/Denver Nuggets UNDER
    Mine:201
    Vegas: 206


    Los Angeles Lakers/Boston Celtics OVER
    Mine:197
    Vegas:189
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  14. 02-18-10 06:48 PM #14
    tavinator13
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    Looks very interesting...just subscribed to your thread. Any description of your system?
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  15. 02-18-10 06:52 PM #15
    AzNDooM
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    Quote Originally Posted by CHAZ View Post
    What variables are you using in your system? Things like B2B? Injuries? Rating system?

    Do you have a thread with your plays posted?

    Also, do you think the plays that are greater then 5 do well because they are lines inflated by Vegas or lucky hits?
    My variables are B2B games, Injuries, Power Ranking Ratings, Rookie Ranking Ratings, Away ATS, Home ATS, current form, Line Movement, Correction Adjustments. At the moment im starting out and learning so I dont want to just start my own thread till i show others im a proven capper. That takes time and I want to earn my respect rather then be some guy who just comes out here talking trash. I also
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  16. 02-18-10 07:09 PM #16
    whatsgood5
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    Nice first two days. GL tonight
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  17. 02-18-10 07:10 PM #17
    whatsgood5
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    Was on the under of the Cavs already, but decided to tail you for a small amount on the over of the Celts. BOL!
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  18. 02-19-10 07:36 AM #18
    CHAZ
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    Quote Originally Posted by CHAZ View Post
    February 18th
    Cleveland Cavaliers/Denver Nuggets UNDER
    Mine:201
    Vegas: 206
    Actual: 234


    Los Angeles Lakers/Boston Celtics OVER
    Mine:197
    Vegas:189
    Actual 173
    Bad night. Overtime slaughtered my under for the Denver/Cleveland game. Then the Lakers made ONLY ONE shot in the last 7 minutes. They both combined for 28 points total in the 4 quarter. Tough day O well on to the next.

    Sorry whatsgood5...


    LAST NIGHTS RECORD 0-2

    OVERALL: 11-8-1
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  19. 02-19-10 10:17 AM #19
    SolidDala
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    Cavs/Nugs hit 212 before OT, but you right OT helped out to really slaughter it!
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  20. 02-19-10 03:29 PM #20
    CHAZ
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    FEBRUARY 19th
    Philadelphia 76ers/San Antonio Spurs OVER
    Mine: 195
    Vegas: 192.5

    Washington Wizards/Denver Nuggets UNDER
    Mine: 206
    Vegas: 208.5

    Charlotte Bobcats/Cleveland Cavaliers OVER
    Mine: 194
    Vegas: 191.5

    New Orleans Hornets/Indiana Pacers UNDER
    Mine: 202
    Vegas: 206

    Detroit Pistons/Milwaukee Bucks OVER
    Mine: 191
    Vegas: 189.5

    Minnesota Timberwolves/Chicago Bulls UNDER
    Mine: 200
    Vegas: 205.5

    New Jersey Nets/Toronto Raptors OVER
    Mine: 200
    Vegas: 198

    Orlando Magic/Dallas Mavericks UNDER
    Mine: 199
    Vegas: 204

    Memphis Grizzlies/Miami Heat OVER
    Mine: 198
    Vegas: 189

    Phoenix Suns/Atlanta Hawks UNDER
    Mine: 206
    Vegas: 213

    GoldenState Warriors/Utah Jazz UNDER
    Mine: 208
    Vegas: 220.5

    Portland Trail Blazers/Boston Celtics OVER
    Mine: 192
    Vegas: 186.5
    Last edited by CHAZ; 02-19-10 at 03:42 PM.
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  21. 02-19-10 03:36 PM #21
    CHAZ
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    Again guys everything is still in the testing stages so tread lightly if you decide to play these plays.

    My lines compared to Vegas' lines on certain teams seem to be off. Miami, Memphis, Golden State, Phoenix, maybe Bostons. Its still very early stages in everything but just something I noticed.
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  22. 02-20-10 11:01 AM #22
    acarmelo1
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    Nice
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  23. 02-20-10 12:17 PM #23
    kingofgamble
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    nothing for today yet
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  24. 02-20-10 12:48 PM #24
    acarmelo1
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    system plays today?
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  25. 02-20-10 02:02 PM #25
    CHAZ
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    Quote Originally Posted by CHAZ View Post
    FEBRUARY 19th
    Philadelphia 76ers/San Antonio Spurs OVER
    Mine: 195
    Vegas: 192.5
    Actual: 200

    Washington Wizards/Denver Nuggets UNDER
    Mine: 206
    Vegas: 208.5
    Actual: 204

    Charlotte Bobcats/Cleveland Cavaliers OVER
    Mine: 194
    Vegas: 191.5
    Actual: 203

    New Orleans Hornets/Indiana Pacers UNDER
    Mine: 202
    Vegas: 206
    Actual: 208

    Detroit Pistons/Milwaukee Bucks OVER
    Mine: 191
    Vegas: 189.5
    Actual: 176

    Minnesota Timberwolves/Chicago Bulls UNDER
    Mine: 200
    Vegas: 205.5
    Actual: 194

    New Jersey Nets/Toronto Raptors OVER
    Mine: 200
    Vegas: 198
    Actual: 195

    Orlando Magic/Dallas Mavericks UNDER
    Mine: 199
    Vegas: 204
    Actual: 180

    Memphis Grizzlies/Miami Heat OVER
    Mine: 198
    Vegas: 189
    Actual: 187

    Phoenix Suns/Atlanta Hawks UNDER
    Mine: 206
    Vegas: 213
    Actual: 168

    GoldenState Warriors/Utah Jazz UNDER
    Mine: 208
    Vegas: 220.5
    Actual: 189

    Portland Trail Blazers/Boston Celtics OVER
    Mine: 192
    Vegas: 186.5
    Actual: 172

    Went 7-5 last night. Alright. I'm thinking because of the AllStar break some of my stats are alittle skewed since some teams are healthier now. Also, take in mind some teams are adjusting with the trades. So hopefully as time goes on the lines start to come about better/closer.
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  26. 02-20-10 02:04 PM #26
    CHAZ
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    I'm leaving to go out of town so tomorrow plays won't get posted. Here are tonights though. Goodluck to us!!


    February 20th
    Toronto Raptors/Washington Wizards UNDER
    Mine:204
    Vegas: 207 to 206

    New York     Knicks/Oklahoma City Thunder UNDER
    Mine:     200
    Vegas:202 jumped to 206

    Chicago/Philadelphia UNDER
    Mine: 196
    Vegas:193 jumped to 197

    Dallas Mavericks/Miami Heat OVER
    Mine: 196
    Vegas: 184.5

    Houston Rockets/Indiana Pacers UNDER
    Mine: 201
    Vegas: 205 jumped to 208.5

    Milwaukee Bucks/Charlotte Bobcats OVER
    Mine: 195
    Vegas: 188.5

    Los Angeles Clippers/Sacramento Kings UNDER
    Mine: 200
    Vegas: 202
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  27. 02-20-10 03:13 PM #27
    CHAZ
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    I have yet to win with Miami and Boston.
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  28. 02-20-10 03:32 PM #28
    Sawyer
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    GL Chaz!
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  29. 02-21-10 12:26 PM #29
    CHAZ
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    2-5 last night what a disappointment. I'm gonna take fews days off and try make a few tweaks.
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  30. 02-23-10 05:13 PM #30
    CHAZ
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    Back at it again! Good luck to me




    February 23th

    Cleveland Cavaliers/New Orleans Hornets OVER
    Mine: 203
    Vegas: 199

    Miami Heat/Minnesota Timberwolves NO PLAY
    Mine: 195
    Vegas: 192

    Boston Celtics/New York Knicks NO PLAY
    Mine: 196
    Vegas: 197

    New Jersey Nets/Portland Trail blazers NO PLAY
    Mine: 187
    Vegas: 184

    Memphis Grizzlies/Los Angeles Lakers NO PLAY
    Mine: 195
    Vegas: 198

    Oklahoma City Thunder/Phoenix Suns NO PLAY
    Mine: 202
    Vegas: 204

    Sacramento Kings/Detroit Pistons NO PLAY
    Mine: 197
    Vegas: 196

    Golden State Warriors/Philadelphia 76ers UNDER
    Mine: 210
    Vegas: 216
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  31. 02-24-10 06:11 AM #31
    tavinator13
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    Quote Originally Posted by CHAZ View Post
    Back at it again! Good luck to me




    February 23th

    Cleveland Cavaliers/New Orleans Hornets OVER
    Mine: 203
    Vegas: 199

    Miami Heat/Minnesota Timberwolves NO PLAY
    Mine: 195
    Vegas: 192

    Boston Celtics/New York Knicks NO PLAY
    Mine: 196
    Vegas: 197

    New Jersey Nets/Portland Trail blazers NO PLAY
    Mine: 187
    Vegas: 184

    Memphis Grizzlies/Los Angeles Lakers NO PLAY
    Mine: 195
    Vegas: 198

    Oklahoma City Thunder/Phoenix Suns NO PLAY
    Mine: 202
    Vegas: 204

    Sacramento Kings/Detroit Pistons NO PLAY
    Mine: 197
    Vegas: 196

    Golden State Warriors/Philadelphia 76ers UNDER
    Mine: 210
    Vegas: 216
    Well Done...
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  32. 02-24-10 11:44 AM #32
    CHAZ
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    Quote Originally Posted by CHAZ View Post
    Back at it again! Good luck to me




    February 23th

    Cleveland Cavaliers/New Orleans Hornets OVER
    Mine: 203
    Vegas: 199
    Actual: 200

    Miami Heat/Minnesota Timberwolves NO PLAY
    Mine: 195
    Vegas: 192
    Actual: 179

    Boston Celtics/New York Knicks NO PLAY
    Mine: 196
    Vegas: 197
    Actual: 216

    New Jersey Nets/Portland Trail blazers NO PLAY
    Mine: 187
    Vegas: 184
    Actual: 195

    Memphis Grizzlies/Los Angeles Lakers NO PLAY
    Mine: 195
    Vegas: 198
    Actual: 197

    Oklahoma City Thunder/Phoenix Suns NO PLAY
    Mine: 202
    Vegas: 204
    Actual: 206

    Sacramento Kings/Detroit Pistons NO PLAY
    Mine: 197
    Vegas: 196
    Actual: 190

    Golden State Warriors/Philadelphia 76ers UNDER
    Mine: 210
    Vegas: 216
    Actual: 212

    2-0 last night

    I'll post tonights picks alittle later.
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  33. 02-24-10 03:16 PM #33
    CHAZ
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    February 24th
    Atlanta Hawks/Minnesota Timberwolves NO PLAY
    Mine: 202
    Vegas: 203

    Washington Wizards/Memphis Grizzlies NO PLAY
    Mine: 200
    Vegas: 199

    Toronto Raptors/Portland Trail Blazers OVER
    Mine: 201
    Vegas: 198

    Chicago Bulls/Indiana Pacers UNDER
    Mine: 202
    Vegas: 205

    Milwaukee Bucks/New Orleans Hornets NO PLAY
    Mine: 195
    Vegas: 194

    Houston Rockets/Orlando Magic UNDER
    Mine: 200
    Vegas: 205

    San Antonio Spurs/Oklahoma City Thunder OVER
    Mine: 197
    Vegas: 194

    Dallas Mavericks/Los Angeles Lakers NO PLAY
    Mine: 194
    Vegas: 195

    Phoenix Suns/Philadelphia 76ers UNDER
    Mine: 205
    Vegas: 210

    Utah Jazz/Charlotte Bobcats NO PLAY
    Mine: 194
    Vegas: 193

    Los Angeles Clippers/Detroit Pistons NO PLAY
    Mine: 192
    Vegas: 190
    Last edited by CHAZ; 02-24-10 at 05:17 PM.
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  34. 02-25-10 08:06 AM #34
    CHAZ
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    Quote Originally Posted by CHAZ View Post
    February 24th
    Atlanta Hawks/Minnesota Timberwolves NO PLAY
    Mine: 202
    Vegas: 203
    Actual: 190

    Washington Wizards/Memphis Grizzlies NO PLAY
    Mine: 200
    Vegas: 199
    Actual: 193

    Toronto Raptors/Portland Trail Blazers OVER
    Mine: 201
    Vegas: 198
    Actual: 188

    Chicago Bulls/Indiana PacersUNDER
    Mine: 202
    Vegas: 205
    Actual: 230

    Milwaukee Bucks/New Orleans Hornets NO PLAY
    Mine: 195
    Vegas: 194
    Actual: 210

    Houston Rockets/Orlando Magic UNDER
    Mine: 200
    Vegas: 205
    Actual: 202

    San Antonio Spurs/Oklahoma City Thunder OVER
    Mine: 197
    Vegas: 194
    Actual: 182

    Dallas Mavericks/Los Angeles Lakers NO PLAY
    Mine: 194
    Vegas: 195
    Actual: 197

    Phoenix Suns/Philadelphia 76ers UNDER
    Mine: 205
    Vegas: 210
    Actual: 201

    Utah Jazz/Charlotte Bobcats NO PLAY
    Mine: 194
    Vegas: 193
    Actual: 195

    Los Angeles Clippers/Detroit Pistons NO PLAY
    Mine: 192
    Vegas: 190
    Actual: 188


    2-3 Yesterday
    24 - 21 - 1 Overall
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  35. 02-25-10 08:11 AM #35
    playersonly69
    playersonly69's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-04-08
    Posts: 12,827
    Betpoints: 142

    Totals are too hard to win at in the long run
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