NBA Preview: John Wall is trying to make his first conference final as the Wizards and Celtics have big conflicting trends to deal with for Game 7.
#4 Washington Wizards (56-38) at #1 Boston Celtics (60-34), Monday 8 p.m. EST.
Line: Celtics -5. Total 209.5.
Series: tied 3-3.
The Wizards did not play well in Game 6 and still won. Washington had a four-minute stretch in the second quarter where they outscored the Celtics 12-2 to take a 40-30 lead. However, that was the only solid stretch they had in Game 6. The Wizards simply did not look like the team who has dominated opponents in the playoffs at the Verizon Center. Washington looked tentative and out of sync on offense.
The part of the stat sheet that shocked me the most was the fact that only three Washington players scored all 51 points in the second half. John Wall (23 points), Bradley Beal (19 points) and Markieff Morris (9 points) were the only Wizards’ players to score in the second half. I do not believe I have ever seen that before in a NBA game. I emailed and tweeted the Elias Sports Bureau to ask if that has ever happened before in any playoff or regular season game. However, I am not holding my breath that they will respond.
This tells me that Washington’s offense was indeed out of sync in this game and especially in the second half. The Wizards only had four shots taken from players not named Wall, Beal or Morris in the second half. Porter, Marcin Gortat, Bojan Bogdanovic and Brandon Jennings only took one shot apiece in the second half. Porter did not score a single point in Game 6 after scoring double digits in each of the first five games, averaging 15.8 points per game in those five games.
The Wizards need to get more guys involved in the offense or they will not win Game 7. Washington’s best quarter was the first quarter in Game 6 when they had six different players score points and nobody had more than 6 points. Porter did not score but had 6 rebounds, 2 assists and a steal in that first quarter.
This means the Wizards had contributions from 7 players in that quarter. No other quarter came close to resembling their first quarter. Porter played another 24 minutes after the first quarter but he basically transformed into a ghost. He only had one rebound and one blocked shot after the first quarter as he disappeared.
For the Celtics, Avery Bradley has caught fire the last two games. Bradley averaged 16 points per game during the first two games of the series at home. He then averaged 6 points per game the next two games at the Verizon Center. Bradley has averaged 28 points per game the last two games. He scored a career-high 25 points in the first half of Game 5.
Isaiah Thomas was also clutch for Boston. Thomas scored 27 points, had 7 assists and added 3 rebounds in Game 6 and scored 5 consecutive points late in the game, breaking an 82-82 tie. With 2:09 left, Thomas swished a step-back jumper from the baseline and then on the next possession, he buried a three to give the Celtics an 87-82 lead with 1:34 left.
The Wizards rallied as Beal hit his first and only three-pointer of the game to cut the deficit to 2 points before Wall tied it at 87-87 with two free throws with 41 seconds left. Bradley and Beal exchanged clutch shots to make it 89-89. Then Al Horford made an unintended bank shot from a tough angle to give Boston a 91-89 lead with 7 seconds left. Wall then hit the biggest shot of his life, nailing the game-winning three-pointer with 3 seconds left.
Everyone knows by now that the home team has won all 10 meetings this season between these two teams. The home team had covered the Vegas spread the first 9 games until the Celtics became the first underdog to cover the spread in this series in Game 6.
The Wizards became the first home team to win an elimination game this postseason in Game 6. The home team had been 0-10 in elimination games. So the Celtics are facing a 10-1 trend against them in Game 7. However, the Celtics’ hope to combat that trend with a trend of their own. Boston's franchise is 15-2 all-time in Game 7’s at home.
However, I believe the Wizards will win Game 7. I compare this series to the Atlanta series in the first round. The home team won and covered the spread in each of the first four games in that series. The Wizards won Game 5 at home, but did not cover the 5.5-point spread. Washington went on to beat the Hawks easily in Game 6 at Atlanta, 115-99.
In this series, the home team won and covered the spread in the first five games before the Wizards won Game 6, but did not cover the 5-point spread at home. Now they to Boston for Game 7.
I also draw similarities between the Spurs beating Houston in overtime in Game 5 of that series at home when they did not play well. The Spurs offense looked tentative and out of sync. Yet in Game 6, San Antonio blew the Rockets out of the water with a 39-point win.
As far as the Vegas total goes, I do have some Game 7 history that came with a theory I wrote about 11 years ago.
Checking on Brewers7's hypothesis in the NBA that Game 7’s go Under, I found the following data:
Scoring has been up in the NBA the past couple of years and so have the Game 7 scores. The under is 6-7 in the last 13 instances for Game 7's over the last five-plus seasons. That is the reason I do not see emough significant information on that chart to sway me into taking this game under the total. Scoring is up and if a defender even breathes on an offensive player at times the past few years, he gets called for a foul. Unless it is the last minute of a game, then you can practically tackle opponents with the ball and there will not be a foul called.
John Wall has never been to the conference finals and he is one of two players on the court on Tuesday who can put a team on his back and carry them to victory. Thomas is the other player for Boston.
We have finally had some close games in the NBA playoffs the last two games. I think this this game will make it three in a row. I believe the Wizards will win this game, but if they do not, they will be close enough to cover the spread the same way Boston covered as the losing team in Game 6.
My postseason record: 16-6 (+$800).
My pick:
Washington Wizards +5, laying $55 to win $50 (1/2 unit, small play).
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