Originally Posted by
brewers7
NBA Preview: LeBron James and the Cavs are hoping to finish off Toronto in Game 4.
#2 Cleveland Cavaliers (58-31) at #3 Toronto Raptors (55-36), Sunday, 3:30 p.m. EST
Line: Cavaliers -7. Total 213.
Series: Cavaliers lead 3-0.
LeBron James is just killing it this postseason.
LeBron is scoring 36.3 points per game, dishing out 5 assists per game, while grabbing 8 rebounds per game against Toronto. James is averaging 32.1 points per game, 7.7 assists per game and 7.6 rebounds per game in the playoffs.
James’ numbers are even more staggering in the win column for his team in the playoffs. He is now a staggering 31-4 in the first three rounds of the playoffs since returning to Cleveland for the 2014-15 season. James’ first-round series record is 12-0 and his record for first-round games is an astounding 48-7. He has won his last 21 straight first-round games. LeBron is now 43-21 in the second round for his career and 27-7 in the second round since his first season with Miami.
James owns the Raptors this season. He has won all six meaningful games against Toronto this year. Toronto’s Kyle Lowry is listed as doubtful for Game 4. So the only question left in this series is whether LeBron and the Cavaliers can close out the Raptors with a sweep.
James has closed out seven consecutive series when his team has a 3-0 lead. The last time LeBron did not close out a sweep in Game 4 was when he lost 89-87 to the New York Knicks on May 6, 2012. James was a member of the Miami Heat during that first round series. LeBron is 4-2-1 ATS (Against The Spread) in his last seven close-out games. However, he is 0-2-1 ATS in his last three opportunities.
These close-out stats made me wonder how all teams do in this situational spot. So I went back and found a post I made 11 years ago on a forum and updated the last 11 seasons.
Here is what I found (SU is straight up):
Checking on brewers7’s NBA hypothesis that the Teams that have a 3-0 series lead will close out the series with a sweep in Game 4, I found the following data (SU & ATS):
2016-17: 2-0 SU & 1-0-1 ATS
2015-16: 3-0 SU & 1-2 ATS
2014-15: 4-4 SU & ATS
2013-14: 1-1 SU & ATS
2012-13: 3-1 SU & ATS
2011-12: 3-1 SU & 1-3 ATS
2010-11: 2-3 SU & 2-2-1 ATS
2009-10: 4-1 SU & ATS
2008-09: 2-1 SU & 2-0-1 ATS
2007-08: 1-1 SU & ATS
2006-07: 4-1 SU & 1-2-2 ATS
2005-06: 1-0 SU & ATS
2004-05: 3-1 SU & ATS
2003-04: 3-0 SU & ATS
2002-03: 2-1 SU & ATS
2001-02: 1-0 SU & ATS
2000-01: 2-1 SU & ATS
1999-00: 0-2 SU & ATS
1998-99: 4-0 SU & ATS
1997-98: 1-0 SU & ATS
1996-97: 0-1 SU & ATS
1995-96: 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS
1994-95: 1-0 SU & ATS
1993-94: 0-1 SU & 1-0 ATS
1992-93: 1-0 SU & ATS
1991-92: 0-0
1990-91: 1-0 SU & ATS
1989-90: 0-0
1988-89: 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS
1987-88: 0-0
1986-87: 1-1 SU & ATS
1985-86: 1-1 SU & ATS
Last 32 years: 57-24 SU (70.4%) and 48-28-5 ATS (63.2%).
Vegas has been adjusting these lines upward over the last seven years. Teams are still winning the games straight up at a clip of 16-7 the past six years. However, the ATS record of the teams in this situational spot is 11-11-1 the last six seasons.
Cleveland will close this series out. However, the Vegas line has jumped up to 7 points already. I probably should not let that line bother me, but I am going to pass as I just do not want to give the 7-point chalk.
Toronto coach Dwane Casey has figured out a way to get DeMar DeRozan the ball in space and avoid the Cavaliers’ double-teams on him. DeRozan was a one-man show for Toronto, shooting 12-for-23 from the field and a perfect 13-for-13 from the free-throw line to score 37 points in Game 3. It was not even close to enough as the Cavs won 115-94.
Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love scored 16 points apiece, while Kyle Korver added 14 points off the bench for Cleveland.
#2 San Antonio Spurs (67-24) at #3 Houston Rockets (60-30), Sunday, 9 p.m. EST
Line: Rockets -5.5. Total 212.
Series: Spurs lead 2-1.
I am a little disappointed with myself for placing a bet on Game 3 of this series when I should have just watched the game. I mentioned my concern for the Spurs rising up after the Tony Parker injury and possibly winning the game in my Friday write-up. San Antonio did just that. Coach Gregg Popovich is proving yet again just how good a coach he is.
I was going to zig-zag back and take Houston to respond on Sunday to even this series. However, I am not confident that Houston is going to win this game. James Harden just scored 43 points and the Rockets still lost 103-92 on their home floor. Trevor Ariza added 17 points, while Clint Capela has 12 points for Houston. However, the Rockets have several players struggling to score points. Unlike the Spurs, I do not see Houston as a team that makes a lot of adjustments. They give the ball to Harden and either he drives and shoots or dishes to a teammate who launches a three-pointer.
LaMarcus Aldridge looked a lot better in Game 3 as he scored 26 points, while Kawhi Leonard added 26 points, 10 rebounds and 7 assists. Patty Mills added 15 points while Pau Gasol had 12 points and 9 boards.
I have no play here as I just cannot lay the 5.5 points.
#1 Boston Celtics (59-32) at #4 Washington Wizards (54-37), Sunday 6:30 p.m. EST.
Line: Wizards -4.5. Total 216.
Series: Celtics lead 2-1.
Washington has had double-digit leads in all three games of this series, yet trail 2-1 in games. In fact, the Wizards have led by double-digits at the end of the first quarter in all three games. Washington blew big leads in each of the first two games. However, the Wizards were determined not to let that happen again as they throttled Boston 116-89 in Game 3.
I expect Game 4 to be a lot closer. Boston now has the big bounce-back spot here while the Wizards have a let-down spot. Washington is now 29-5 in their last 34 home games. The home team has won all seven times this season in their head-to-head matchups. I still believe the home team can win every game of this series. I feel the likely outcome is that the Wizards will win Game 7, if it gets that far.
Kelly Oubre has been suspended for one game after bum-rushing Kelly Olynyk in the second quarter of Game 3. Oubre has not contributed much for the Wizards in this series other than providing his team with a spark in Game 3 after his incident with Olynyk. Isaiah Thomas was finally held in check for the Celtics as he took only 8 shots and scored just 13 points on Thursday.
John Wall led a well-balanced attack for the Wizards by scoring 24 points.
I think Washington has enough to even this series and get over the Vegas number in this game.
My postseason record: 13-4 (+$765).
My pick:
Washington Wizards -4.5, laying $110 to win $100 (1 unit, normal play).
GL.
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