NBA Preview: The Rockets are hoping to have a response to the Spurs 25-point win on Wednesday. Tony Parker out for the season for San Antonio.
#2 San Antonio Spurs (66-24) at #3 Houston Rockets (60-29), Friday, 9:30 p.m. EST
Line: Rockets -4.5. Total 214.5.
This series has the makings of a true Zig-Zag Theory series. One team wins, then the other team answers next time out. The Rockets dominated San Antonio in Game 1 at the AT&T Center 126-99 on Monday. Houston set a new franchise record for most three-pointers in a playoff game with 22. Then San Antonio answered the bell in Game 2 with a 125-103 win to even the series at 1-1.
The Rockets dominated from start to finish in Game 1. Houston jumped out to a 15-6 lead and never looked back. They led by 11 points at the end of the first quarter and then by 30 at the half. The Rockets were up by as many as 39 in the second half.
The Spurs did not dominate Game 2 from start to finish. San Antonio had a lead for almost all 48 minutes of the game, but they did not dominate this game until the fourth quarter. The Spurs were up three points after the first quarter and 10 at the half. However, San Antonio was up just five points after the third quarter. The Spurs went on a 30-5 run to start the fourth quarter, which ended the competitive phase of the game.
James Harden has pedestrian numbers in this series for himself. The MVP candidate is shooting 9-for-30 from the field (30%) and is averaging 16.5 points per game. That is almost 13 points per game less than his regular season average. However, Harden continues to do a spectacular job getting his teammates involved with 12 assists per game.
Spurs’ coach Gregg Popovich did make a key adjustment from Game 1 to Game 2. Popovich inserted Pau Gasol into the starting lineup for David Lee. Gasol did not shoot well, but he had 13 rebounds, 4 blocks and 3 assists.
Kawhi Leonard was outstanding for the Spurs. Leonard shot 13-for-16 from the field (81%) to score 34 points, while adding 8 assists, 7 rebounds and 3 steals. Parker shot 8-for-13 for 18 points and added 4 assists and LaMarcus Aldridge bounced back from a bad Game 1 with 15 points and 8 rebounds.
The news was not all good for the Spurs. Parker went down with a leg injury in the fourth quarter and had to be carried off the court. It was obvious to everyone watching that he was not only done for the game but done for the season. Parker got an MRI Thursday morning and it was confirmed that he is out for the season with a torn quadriceps tendon.
The Rockets have several players doing well early in this series. Ryan Anderson is averaging 16 points and 7 rebounds per game, Clint Capela is averaging 17 points and 8 rebounds per game and Eric Gordon is averaging 13 points per game. Lou Williams is struggling after a spectacular series against Oklahoma City in the first round. Williams averaged 16.8 points and 4.2 rebounds per game in that series against the Thunder. Williams only has 8.5 points and 1.5 rebounds per game in the first two games of this series.
I fully expect the Rockets to rebound from their fourth quarter debacle in Game 2. The only thing I am not crazy about here is how the Parker injury plays out for Game 3. Teams usually rise up the first game after a star player goes down and is out with an injury. However, after the team raises their energy level for that first game, that energy level then fades for the subsequent games. The Spurs played with a lot more energy in Game 2 compared to Game 1. So I will take the bounce-back team to beat the let-down team and zig-zag back to Houston to win Game 3.
My postseason record: 12-3 (+$720).
My pick:
Houston Rockets -4.5, laying $55 to win $50 (1/2 unit, small play).
GL.
I also have a play on Game 3 on the Cleveland / Toronto game.
Normally, I would take the Raptors to bounce back after two double-digit losses and win Game 3. Toronto did that last year in the conference finals against Cleveland after two blowout losses. In fact, the Raptors won both games at home against the Cavaliers to even the series at 2-2.
However, LeBron James and this Cleveland team is playing their best basketball of the year right now. The Cavs also own Toronto this season. They have won all 5 meaningful games against the Raptors this year. Toronto’s only win against the Cavs was on April 12 when Cleveland sat their Big 3 of James, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love.
LeBron is averaging 37 points, 8 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 steals and 1.5 blocks per game in this series. James is averaging 31.7 points, 8.5 rebounds and 6.8 assists per game in the playoffs.
Kyle Lowry is questionable with a sprained left ankle for Toronto for Game 3. DeMar DeRozan is still flustered at being double-teamed by Cleveland every time he gets the ball. Toronto coach Dwane Casey has not figured out a way to get DeRozan the ball in open space in this series.
Coach Casey promises effort and adjustments for Game 3. However, how do you stop the freight train who is LeBron James? He is well rested and playing his best basketball of his postseason career through six playoff games this year.
Cleveland swept their first two playoff series last year. LeBron is 30-4 in the first three rounds of the playoffs since returning to Cleveland for the 2014-15 season. I believe this series may be a sweep, too.
I am trying to beat the line move for this game as I expect it rise to at least 4 points.
My pick:
Cleveland Cavaliers -2.5, laying $100 to win $100 (1 unit, normal play).
Good defensive game plan by the Spurs in game 2; have Gasol play goalie at the rim and have Harden's defender rush him into the shot-blocker ...the result is a flustered offense.
The Parker absence is interesting... he has been their 2nd best player in these playoffs, and yet in the weird world of basketball that doesn't necessarily mean they will miss him. They will be forced to increase the usage rate of Leonard and to play through the post more -both positives. THey will also be better defensively.
Can't argue with the Cavs pick. Looks a bit square to me but I can't say I disagree.
I don't think the Spurs will miss Parker as much as people think...
In the playoffs, there are a lot of "square plays"...I try to ignore the bet% sites this time of year...I am finding that watching those sites just tend to take you off plays anyway because you see 80% or 90% on the same side as you and your kneejerk reaction is "I don't want to be on the same side of the public"... The public is right more than people realize...
Rockets cover this game easily.. they play much faster at home. Game 2 was a case of them feeling themselves too much and knowing they were going home for games 3 and 4
SBR Top-Rated Sportsbooks
NBA Friday 2 plays...
Reply With Quote