1. 11-14-16 03:15 PM #1
    shadymcgrady
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    NBA injury theory

    I know there have been a few big name injuries before today with mixed results but I'll start tracking as of today 11/14/16.

    The objective is to wager on the team ATS that has a big name player injured and out. Note that this is only for the FIRST game the player misses, injurieswith multiple games missed only use the first game missed.

    Also trackin big name players returning to action from injury and bet against that team ATS.

    Tonights plays are detroit and brooklyn ATS. Both andre Drummond and brook Lopez are out. Detroit went from -3 to +1.5 at home. Brooklyn from +13.5 to +16 in LAC.

    Drummond is clearly the best and most well known player on detroit. Lopez is not necessarily a good player but currently the best and biggest names player on the nets with lin sidelined
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  2. 11-14-16 08:53 PM #2
    shadymcgrady
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    Detroit won SU 104-88

    1-0
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  3. 11-15-16 10:30 AM #3
    shadymcgrady
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    Nets got blown out 127-95

    YTD 1-1
    -0.05 units
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  4. 11-15-16 10:44 AM #4
    sportsbook_12
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    Detroit destroyed OKC w/out Drummond. Wow.
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  5. 11-15-16 11:15 AM #5
    44 Mag
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    Quote Originally Posted by sportsbook_12 View Post
    Detroit destroyed OKC w/out Drummond. Wow.
    If OKC didn't have Westbrook, they couldn't beat Philly, and they still might not. LOL.
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  6. 11-15-16 03:55 PM #6
    shadymcgrady
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    Rajon rondo is questionable tonight. Bull ATS +3.5 is a play of rondo sits out
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  7. 11-15-16 05:12 PM #7
    Bluehorseshoe
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    No Justise Winslow tonight for the Heat.
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  8. 11-15-16 05:50 PM #8
    vegaschulo
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    Very interesting thread..me and a friend of mine call it the superstar monuvor. .when they say for like you said Drummond is out and theres heavy line movement everybody is going the other way and BOOM! The team still pull out the W..ill keep checking in here ..keep up this thread my man and thank you!!!
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  9. 11-15-16 07:05 PM #9
    shadymcgrady
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    Thanks for the feedback guys, yes bluehorseshoe Winslow is out but I don't consider him a star or big name player yet in his career. I don't know if I would even consider dirk in that category at this point in his career. Only players on miami that qualify are hassan Whiteside and Goran DRAGIC who BTW missed the game last night and Miami backdoor covered against the spurs. But I didn't include that in this thread and as a play so it won't count but is a worthy footnote. I didn't include it bc he left early the game before and Miami covered that game. His injury was publicly announced well before last night's game that he would be out for a few games or so.

    So far no news on any of the later games with regards to injury. If anyone sees that rondo is out jump on chicago ATS and maybe even 1h ATS. The Lakers don't have any names other than maybe Deangelo Russell that would qualify and the nets have alrdy announced when blopez will and won't play on b2b so it's not rly affecting line movement
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  10. 11-15-16 07:45 PM #10
    shadymcgrady
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    Rondo is out for tonight. Chicago ATS is a play. Already moved from +3.5 to +4.
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  11. 11-15-16 10:14 PM #11
    shadymcgrady
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    Hope someone got a bulls 1h ATS play in. Chicago up 19 at halftime. Superstar theory in full effect. Will update tomorrow going to bed
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  12. 11-16-16 07:02 AM #12
    shadymcgrady
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    Chicago won SU 113-88. 1h ATS sprinkle was not an official play on thread

    2-1
    +0.95 units
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  13. 11-16-16 11:20 AM #13
    shadymcgrady
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    Andre Drummond returns to action tonight. Line moved from det +2.5 to +1. This makes the Knicks ATS -1 a play.
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  14. 11-16-16 03:05 PM #14
    shadymcgrady
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    Anthony Davis now questionable. A couple of things with norl pelicans. 1 jrue holiday is returning and 2 Davis is hurt ALOT and often. Whenever a team has more than 1 injury including a star I've found the results to be mixed. So regardless of Davis status tonight the pelicans are a no play for this theory
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  15. 11-16-16 03:53 PM #15
    LT Profits
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    LeBron is out although it is not due to injury.
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  16. 11-16-16 03:53 PM #16
    shadymcgrady
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    Cle ATS is a play. Lebron James out tonight. Line went from cle -4 to pk
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  17. 11-16-16 04:03 PM #17
    freeVICK
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    Interesting thread, I really like the theory as i have noticed this as well. Have you back tested this at all?
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  18. 11-16-16 04:06 PM #18
    shadymcgrady
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    I dabbled with it the past 2 years with mixed results mainly bc I didn't follow every injury update at times during the season and I've lost alot over the past 10 years going against the theory
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  19. 11-16-16 04:42 PM #19
    LT Profits
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    Dwight Howard out for Atlanta
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  20. 11-16-16 05:06 PM #20
    shadymcgrady
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    Thanks LT im not seeing it on Rotoworld yet, just Dwight as questionable
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  21. 11-16-16 05:27 PM #21
    freeVICK
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    Dirk is out against the celtics
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  22. 11-16-16 05:34 PM #22
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by freeVICK View Post
    Dirk is out against the celtics
    It is not Dirk's first game out.
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  23. 11-16-16 05:36 PM #23
    KickShootThrow
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    Cleveland over 208.5, play it
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  24. 11-16-16 05:37 PM #24
    ferndog
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    Anthony Davis out. Magic line went up from -6 to -7.5. Gonna give the Pelicans a shot.
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  25. 11-16-16 05:42 PM #25
    shadymcgrady
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    FreeVick suggested a better format for tracking. It will read like this

    Star Out YTD


    Star Returning YTD


    So far no word on dwight. Official plays are cle +2.5 as a star out and Knicks -2 as a star returning for detroit

    If dwight is announced out before 730pm EST then Atlanta -5 is a play
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  26. 11-16-16 05:43 PM #26
    shadymcgrady
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    Ur free to play whatever team u want Ferndog just note that I explained in detail above as to why I considered the norl pelicans a no play regarding anthony the brow davis
    Last edited by shadymcgrady; 11-16-16 at 06:03 PM.
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  27. 11-16-16 05:48 PM #27
    shadymcgrady
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    LT good call all along its official dwight is out tonight. Atlanta -5 is a star out play
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  28. 11-16-16 05:49 PM #28
    ferndog
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    Dwight Howard is out https://twitter.com/CVivlamoreAJC
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  29. 11-16-16 05:53 PM #29
    sportsfan9698
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    This is a proven method for winners in the NBA... I have been using this for 20+ years

    What you decide is a play or not a play is always a grey area... but if you work it properly it will hit about 75%

    The key is to only use players that matter... Rondo is not one of them imo, although bulls did win.
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  30. 11-16-16 06:00 PM #30
    LT Profits
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  31. 11-16-16 06:06 PM #31
    ferndog
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    Quote Originally Posted by sportsfan9698 View Post
    This is a proven method for winners in the NBA... I have been using this for 20+ years

    What you decide is a play or not a play is always a grey area... but if you work it properly it will hit about 75%

    The key is to only use players that matter... Rondo is not one of them imo, although bulls did win.
    I agree. I look at the over reaction of line moves. First thing squares think is wow Lebron is out there is no way they can win. It is basically playing the other side of what everybody is thinking. Thats why i went with the Pelicans because AD has been tearing it up so ppl are probably thinking there is no way they can cover without him.
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  32. 11-16-16 06:07 PM #32
    shadymcgrady
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    Thanks for ur input LT. I consider dwight to be a big enough name like lebron where a role plAyer such as jr smith or Thabo sefolosha isn't a factor. If dwight or lebron missed games often like brook Lopez blopez such as expecting to be out consistently on a b2b night then I would probably not consider it a star play but neither of these players in lebron and dwight miss time consistently UNTIL towards the end of the regular season.
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  33. 11-16-16 06:10 PM #33
    shadymcgrady
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    Thanks for the input sports fan and ur personal confirmation of this theory. I do however disagree that rondo is a player of interest in that he's polarizing, controls the tempo and pace of a game from a pg perspective like the top guys (cp3, wall, etc) and at the end of the day is a rly smart and damn good basketball player. Polarizing goes to draw public interest on a brand name
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  34. 11-16-16 06:14 PM #34
    shadymcgrady
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    I'm only going to post the plays for tracking purposes but alot of these star out plays can also cash on 1h ATS and moneylines for dogs. U can play them at ur discretion
    Points Awarded:

    freeVICK gave shadymcgrady 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.

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  35. 11-16-16 09:04 PM #35
    shadymcgrady
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    Cle Lost 103-93
    Atlanta won 107-100
    Nyk won 105-102

    YTD
    Star out
    3-2
    +0.90

    Star returning
    1-0
    +1.00
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