[lyon804]

Now Tgoat has started a thread about line movement meaning nothing or that there is no correlation of success by following it. I do believe that the books are manipulating lines all the time. No, I have no data to support my claim, but please indulge me and explain this for all the efficient market believers out there such as Monkey Focker, Tgoat, or any others that wants to chime in.

Utah has opened at -4.5 on the road to the Clippers. OK, everybody and there brother has started a thread about this line and doesn't care if it is a trap or not they are betting it now or they are going to bet it. The so called sharps are not even stupid enough to play the Clippers. Regardless, if you are sharp are not why would you bet against the Jazz?? I am not trying to predict events here. I have no clue of the outcome of this game. For all I know the Clippers might just win tonite. My point is this.... If money moves the lines than why is Dallas -4.5 not moved to -5 or -5.5 or so on. SBR odds currently shows about 1/3 of bets on the Clippers, but seriously who in the hell got out of bed this morning and said... "Damn, I got to get me some Clippers +4.5 @ home against the Jazz... My short answer to you is nobody thinks like that.. If a sharp or a insider that truly believes that the Clippers are the play here than they would wait on the premise of the line moving up, thus getting a better #... Generally, speaking more times than not you can always get a better # by waiting to play the underdog.. Not always, but more times than not.

I am just confused and welcome all comments here. Seriously, I have been betting NBA 10+ years and I don't know anyone that rolled out of bed this morning and said the Clippers are the play... This all goes back to Lakerboys thinking that the books have opinions. Does the books not think they are gonna get more action on the Jazz here? They don't seem to mind. For all Clippers backers out there reading this.. What is it that you see that has led you to bet the Clippers in this spot??

It's still early in the day, but from my experience if this line holds all the way to game time I would agree the Clippers are the play. From my experience from following lines the best lines are the ones that don't move. Meaning, if you know everybody is on the Jazz and the line never moves than the Clippers, would be a bet,but I will not play it regardless. I don't believe in line movement as the 100% be all end all to the solution therefore I will not bet the Clippers even if my analysis tells me to do so in this spot. At the end of the day your best bet is when your fundamental analysis lines up with your technical analysis.

[SpreadSniper]

I think this falls into the "too good to be true" category. Books have been playing games like this lately and sometimes its hard to see through all the bullshit. If all of a sudden its announced that half the team got violently ill off the seafood buffet last night that might be a good explanation as to why this line is so low. Otherwise Im just not sure.
Maybe just free money tonight?

[lyon804]

I think this falls into the "too good to be true" category. Books have been playing games like this lately and sometimes its hard to see through all the bullshit. If all of a sudden its announced that half the team got violently ill off the seafood buffet last night that might be a good explanation as to why this line is so low. Otherwise Im just not sure.
Maybe just free money tonight?

The line has now moved to -5 almost across the board so it is now starting to act right.

[atc117]

I really like the Jazz in this spot, but here's my 2 cents on why some people might like the Clippers:

1. The Clippers have been playing very well lately at home...winning I think 10 of their last 14.
2. We all know the Jazz are the hottest team in the NBA right now, but that doesn't mean they haven't been a bad road team for the past few years.
3. Chris Kaman just made the all-star team. He might have a little more motivation to play well tonight.

[CHAZ]

The Clips have shown some toughness at home and Utah has at times not been very good on the road. I'm not "backing" the Clippers.

I'm passing on the Jazz. No bet for me, unless Clippers get a few more points.

[lakerboy]

This is a classic example of where the general sports bettor refuses to put there money on the clippers and takes the jazz in a bad spot(lakers in utah wed) look ahead game. Then there is the other type who refuses to put money on the clipjoint and at the same time wont lay money on Jazz cause of bad road history. Then there is the other type who will take his chances on the clippers getting 5 points(the more the merrier) especially considering how good the clips have been against the top teams in the NBA at home. This game is all about taking chances and looking for the right spot. My self the only play on a side here is clippers. No way i will lay 5pts on the road, not a chance in hell.

[Vesuvius]

I'll probably wait to see how high the line gets, if anymore, and take the Clips.

[SpreadSniper]

good points above - clips playing extremely well @ home and step up when met with stiff competition.

[CHAZ]

This is a classic example of where the general sports bettor refuses to put there money on the clippers and takes the jazz in a bad spot(lakers in utah wed) look ahead game. Then there is the other type who refuses to put money on the clipjoint and at the same time wont lay money on Jazz cause of bad road history. Then there is the other type who will take his chances on the clippers getting 5 points(the more the merrier) especially considering how good the clips have been against the top teams in the NBA at home. This game is all about taking chances and looking for the right spot. My self the only play on a side here is clippers. No way i will lay 5pts on the road, not a chance in hell.

Its not that I won't take the Clippers. I just think the spread is pretty close to where it should be. I'll wait until closer to game time to decide for sure whether to take them or not. To me the Clippers would be the only play.

[jabbo999]

i still like jazz theyr hot

[lyon804]

This is a classic example of where the general sports bettor refuses to put there money on the clippers and takes the jazz in a bad spot(lakers in utah wed) look ahead game. Then there is the other type who refuses to put money on the clipjoint and at the same time wont lay money on Jazz cause of bad road history. Then there is the other type who will take his chances on the clippers getting 5 points(the more the merrier) especially considering how good the clips have been against the top teams in the NBA at home. This game is all about taking chances and looking for the right spot. My self the only play on a side here is clippers. No way i will lay 5pts on the road, not a chance in hell.

All of those reasons you and I both know, but most are not thinking like that and the line is now reacting to the move. The best scenario is the look ahead idea that you mentioned. Playing Lakers on Wednesday. And it's true that the Clips have beat and gave some tuff teams at home a run for there money. Afterall that I still can't play the Clips simply because there ship has been sinking over the last few weeks. This is not currently the same team that beat LA, Den, and others and gave the Cavs a wire to wire nail biter. I agree with you it's the play tonite, but I will pass simply due to the fact there "current form" is the worst it has been all season. Even with Utah looking ahead they still have more talent and a much deeper bench and can take this # out. But there again like you said "this game is all about taking chances and looking for the right spot". LB, I think I will just pass this game all together. This game could create more value actually at halftime though if you can see what Clipper team shows up. If the Clipps are down at half by like 2-5 pts and look like they showed up then it could be a better play as opposed to them being down 12pts at halftime. If there down 2-5 you still get about the same game line# and perhaps a little better. Now if the Clips are winning at half then you missed the boat basically if you don't have game line action, but its a chance I am willing to take with so much juicy stuff out there tonite.

[secret007]

2 unpredictable teams, follow the sharp!

[tealish]

Methinks sometimes line movement is just another element in betting that convinces long-time bettors that they're acting wise and continue to gamble in the long run because of the "effort" and "skill" involved that "should inevitably put me over the top" over a large sample.

For me, line movement will only reinforce a play of mine. Not only is it not a be all end all as people have noted, it's not even a starting point. Bet the teams you like. That's it. If the line movement or non-movement is "in your favour", then gravy.

With that said: Jazz all day.

[SaffaCappa]

Forget the spread and just take the over 202

[TGoat]

I do believe that the books are manipulating lines all the time.

If by "manipulating" you mean adjusting lines according to money flow, then yes, they manipulate like crazy.

Line makers are professionals. They are extremely good at it. Just because a line comes out and you disagree with it doesn't make it a bad line. If you disagree strongly with a number then you should have an edge and a bet. But remember, you are disagreeing with professionals and you have to be right 52.38% of the time just to break even.

Obviously you think Utah -4.5 or -5 is a great bet. The books think that -4.5 or -5 will divide the action. As long as they are close it doesn't matter. Getting 11/10 and balanced action within 10% guarantees them a long-term profit.

The books are in the business of letting the handicappers guess about a certain number.

If over time the numbers they put up are very accurate, then the handicappers are indeed just guessing.

And guessers are losers.

[lyon804]

If by "manipulating" you mean adjusting lines according to money flow, then yes, they manipulate like crazy.

Line makers are professionals. They are extremely good at it. Just because a line comes out and you disagree with it doesn't make it a bad line. If you disagree strongly with a number then you should have an edge and a bet. But remember, you are disagreeing with professionals and you have to be right 52.38% of the time just to break even.

Obviously you think Utah -4.5 or -5 is a great bet. The books think that -4.5 or -5 will divide the action. As long as they are close it doesn't matter. Getting 11/10 and balanced action within 10% guarantees them a long-term profit.

The books are in the business of letting the handicappers guess about a certain number.

If over time the numbers they put up are very accurate, then the handicappers are indeed just guessing.

And guessers are losers.

LOL!! Tgoat, you should know what I was referring to in regards to manipulation.. I was referring to the actual lack of movement when there appears to be one sided action. For instance this morning everybody woke up and had to have Utah -4.5. Nobody woke up saying "man give me the Clippers +4.5" Now, as I mentioned earlier I can't predict events, but I can assume there was very little action on the Clips and it was all one sided yet they held the # in place. It has since moved, but whatever data you have or anybody else has will remain a mystery. I do not buy into the argument that the line moves efficiently based soley on money moves.I have been watching lines too long to buy that. I thing the books work in concert with one another to influence action.


Tgoat, sportwagering is all about money to the books and you can't tell me they always have efficient#'s and always make the perfect two sided action. It's all impossible. As far as line movement goes I believe most big moves are costly to follow. The best moves... without giving you supporting data are the less subtle moves that shows no actual number change, but the vig becomes shaded one sided late. Track those moves rather than those 3-4 pt moves intrday. Those seem to lose way more than they hit.

Anybody that believes that the line moves in direct correlation to $ being bet is the most gullable of people out there. That's like saying.. I believe the Federal Government enacted the TARP bill to help out citizens and the American economy.. Yea right.. I knew that was going to be a heist from the get go and anybody that doesn't know it just doesn't care..


My father gave it to me best when I was a young child years ago.... "Son, never trust anybody where your money or your pussy is concerned"

Well, I believe that about sums it up. Maybe I see an Indian behind every bush. Who knows. Sorry for all the rambling. This was all about line manipulation I know and then I went on a tangent. But, I stand behing my theories and will not contest yours as far as line movement is concerned.

If all else fails Tgoat please refer to the bolded quote above

[TGoat]

LOL!! Tgoat, you should know what I was referring to in regards to manipulation.. I was referring to the actual lack of movement when there appears to be one sided action. For instance this morning everybody woke up and had to have Utah -4.5. Nobody woke up saying "man give me the Clippers +4.5" Now, as I mentioned earlier I can't predict events, but I can assume there was very little action on the Clips and it was all one sided yet they held the # in place. It has since moved, but whatever data you have or anybody else has will remain a mystery. I do not buy into the argument that the line moves efficiently based soley on money moves.I have been watching lines too long to buy that. I thing the books work in concert with one another to influence action.


Tgoat, sportwagering is all about money to the books and you can't tell me they always have efficient#'s and always make the perfect two sided action. It's all impossible. As far as line movement goes I believe most big moves are costly to follow. The best moves... without giving you supporting data are the less subtle moves that shows no actual number change, but the vig becomes shaded one sided late. Track those moves rather than those 3-4 pt moves intrday. Those seem to lose way more than they hit.

Anybody that believes that the line moves in direct correlation to $ being bet is the most gullable of people out there. That's like saying.. I believe the Federal Government enacted the TARP bill to help out citizens and the American economy.. Yea right.. I knew that was going to be a heist from the get go and anybody that doesn't know it just doesn't care..


My father gave it to me best when I was a young child years ago.... "Son, never trust anybody where your money or your pussy is concerned"

Well, I believe that about sums it up. Maybe I see an Indian behind every bush. Who knows. Sorry for all the rambling. This was all about line manipulation I know and then I went on a tangent. But, I stand behing my theories and will not contest yours as far as line movement is concerned.

If all else fails Tgoat please refer to the bolded quote above

You might be right, Lyon. I'll keep an eye on it.

All I know is that if I were a bookie, I'd just do my best to try and balance the action. In a day to day business of setting lines, I don't think I would have the time nor inclination to do much else. With so many games on so many sports I'd be perfectly happy with the business that I got as long as it was close to being balanced.

Being in concert with other books and manipulating lines to attract money on losing sides isn't something I would be interested in unless I was a MASTER handicapper.

I'd just take the 11/10 and hope most of my games are within 10% of being balanced. If they're not, then I would probably break about even on the unbalanced games over time and collect the juice.

Some good friends of mine used to be bookies and that's what they did and that's how it worked for them.

One of them didn't know a damn thing about sports, but he did know that most of his customers were suckers.

They had most of the money in town too.

[Dexter]

ive never been a fan of laying points on the road - esp with a team like the jazz:

0-1 ats this year as road fav's of 3-6 pts
7-14 ats the last 3 years.

clippers or no play for me - likely no play...

[Dexter]

This is a classic example of where the general sports bettor refuses to put there money on the clippers and takes the jazz in a bad spot(lakers in utah wed) look ahead game. Then there is the other type who refuses to put money on the clipjoint and at the same time wont lay money on Jazz cause of bad road history. Then there is the other type who will take his chances on the clippers getting 5 points(the more the merrier) especially considering how good the clips have been against the top teams in the NBA at home. This game is all about taking chances and looking for the right spot. My self the only play on a side here is clippers. No way i will lay 5pts on the road, not a chance in hell.

wow, i missed that.....i may make a play on the clips now.

[lyon804]

You might be right, Lyon. I'll keep an eye on it.

All I know is that if I were a bookie, I'd just do my best to try and balance the action. In a day to day business of setting lines, I don't think I would have the time nor inclination to do much else. With so many games on so many sports I'd be perfectly happy with the business that I got as long as it was close to being balanced.

Being in concert with other books and manipulating lines to attract money on losing sides isn't something I would be interested in unless I was a MASTER handicapper.

I'd just take the 11/10 and hope most of my games are within 10% of being balanced. If they're not, then I would probably break about even on the unbalanced games over time and collect the juice.

Some good friends of mine used to be bookies and that's what they did and that's how it worked for them.

One of them didn't know a damn thing about sports, but he did know that most of his customers were suckers.

They had most of the money in town too.

All true TGoat, but tell me one thing... You loved the "bolded" quote from my previous post. I hoped you would find that amusing. Yea, I wish I could make book, but it's not in keeping with my "family" values. Anybody with half a brain knows that is the best way to win at this game. We all on average are in the hole from the get go and must work extrememly hard to find a slight edge as you pointed out the break even point. And anybody knows over the long haul it is hard to attain.. Not impossible, but difficult. Yes I would admit that the books are quite sharp and have got it down to a science.


For Instance here is Vegas action tonite on Utah for most bets...

Public has Utah -5 -110
Books have Clippers +5 +110

Big difference huh?

Most people will never quite understand how huge that is. While we are generally speaking -110 on all or most bets and they are sitting +110 on the other side.. Just a huge advantage to them especially considering the average bettor will not hit near 50% over a large sample.

[SpreadSniper]

For Instance here is Vegas action tonite on Utah for most bets...

Public has Utah -5 -110
Books have Clippers +5 +110

Big difference huh?

Most people will never quite understand how huge that is. While we are generally speaking -110 on all or most bets and they are sitting +110 on the other side.. Just a huge advantage to them especially considering the average bettor will not hit near 50% over a large sample.