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Professor MJ: daily NBA projections (2017-02-27)
Hello fellow NBA fans from around the world! I hope you had a great weekend! Today we have 7 games, and I only see one value bet, and another one where I suggest following some guidelines in the text below. Here are the projections for the day:
Tip: Avoid betting this game.
Bookie PROF. MJ Bookie PROF. MJ Raptors -3.5 -3.5 -167 -154 Knicks +3.5 +3.5 +151 +154
Tip: Avoid betting this game.
Bookie PROF. MJ Bookie PROF. MJ Warriors -13.5 -13.3 -1300 -1120 76ers +13.5 +13.3 +944 +1120
Tip: No projections because of the unknown status of Lebron James.
Bookie PROF. MJ Bookie PROF. MJ Bucks +7.5 NA +285 NA Cavs -7.5 NA -325 NA
Tip: Bet the Hawks, but it is important to read the guidelines below!
Bookie PROF. MJ Bookie PROF. MJ Hawks +3.5 +2.3 +147 +126 Celtics -3.5 -2.3 -163 -126
Tip: Avoid betting this game.
Bookie PROF. MJ Bookie PROF. MJ Heat -1 -1.5 -109 -113 Mavs +1 +1.5 -101 +113
Tip: Avoid betting this game.
Bookie PROF. MJ Bookie PROF. MJ Pacers +10.5 +9.7 +500 +486 Rockets -10.5 -9.7 -603 -486
Tip: Bet the Kings.
Bookie PROF. MJ Bookie PROF. MJ Twolves -5 -3.1 -200 -143 Kings +5 +3.1 +180 +143
“GOOD BET” (3 stars / 5):
I’m taking the Kings +5 (money line +180 or 2.80). Sacramento is 2-0 against Minnesota this year. Both games were pretty close: 109-105 in Minnesota (where 57 of the 109 points for Sacramento came from Cousins and Gay, which are both not playing for the Kings tonight) and 106-103 back in October in Sacramento. The Timberwolves are 8-18 on the road this year.
The Kings are 1-1 since trading Cousins. On February 23rd I recommended betting the Kings at home against the Nuggets because even after deducting 20% to their win probability they were still a value bet at +273. I felt like the market was overreacting to the Cousins trade. In their next game the line looked fine. They lost badly 99-85 at home to Charlotte and I believe the line is back to “overreaction” mode.
"PROCEED WITH CAUTION BET" (1 star / 5):
As of 2:30pm I’m going with the Hawks +3.5 or money line +147 (decimal odds = 2.47). My projections have the Hawks +126 versus Celtics -126 based on Avery Bradley being “doubtful” to play. I deducted 6.5% to Boston’s chances of winning based on this information. If he is out, I would deduct 8% (instead of 6.5%) which would make my projections become Hawks +119 Celtics -119. If he plays: Hawks +165 Celtics -165. Those numbers above account for Boston playing the second of back-to-back games.
In their only previous matchup this year Boston won 103-101 in Atlanta. The Celtics may be looking ahead to their clash with Cleveland in two days from now. After starting the season 9-2, Atlanta has gone 23-24 since then. Boston led by 17 in Toronto, only to lose by 10. In their next game, they blew a 15-point lead, but still managed to win it.
Good luck everyone!
Professor MJ
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Originally Posted by vegaschulo
