[TechnicalTrader]

RSI, moving averages, even indy's like the Bolliger Bands are all very similar. Are you betting against or with the long term trend?

[4everNbluejeans]

With the trend - but I should clarify that that is only the main component of three indicators- it gets a little complicated, but basically when 2 of 3 line up I bet 2%, and when all three line up 3%.

[TechnicalTrader]

Gotcha. My system is a little less complicated. I basically wait for a false breakout or a "false streak" and play the correction, within a "trading channel" keeping my eye on resistance/support levels. And yes, there are resistance/support levels in sports betting trends, or at least where an ATS is set... Vegas makes sure of that, but that is something we'll talk about later.

I'm off to the gym and will place my bets later. right now looking at 11 O/U and 7-8 ATS bets.

Good convo, looking forward to more.

Btw, feel free to add you picks in here if you would like to track them in here.

[4everNbluejeans]

Will do, but this is your thread so I'll probably only mention picks when we're on the same side.

[TechnicalTrader]

No problem. Again, feel free to post them. I'll be tracking mine anyway so it really won't get in the way.

[TechnicalTrader]

Here we go, day 10:

MIL/TOR	O 203.0	0.39%
CHI/LAC	O 209.0	0.82%
MIA/CLE	O 215.5	0.39%
DEN/CHA	O 221.0	2.55%
HOU/MEM	O 221.0	0.39%
PHI/DET	O 212.5	0.82%
PHI/DET	U 212.5	0.39%
SAS/MIN	O 205.5	1.21%
POR/BKN	U 224.0	0.82%
TOR	-1.5	0.39%
LAC	-2	0.82%
MIA	1	0.39%
CHA	5.5	0.39%
DET	-4.5	0.82%
MIN	8	1.73%
POR	11.5	0.78%

[4everNbluejeans]

OK, I just have three picks - two are the same as yours. I have DET/PHI over 209.5 (I grabbed it early), CLE/MIA over 214.5, and CHA/DEN under 222. On your listing, I think you mean Denver/Charlotte, not Denver/New Orleans. I also liked MEM/HOU over, but missed it at 218 and decided not to chase it.

Another thought - when you have conflicting signals, like today with Det/Phi, why not line shop to give yourself at least a small chance of hitting both? Looks like you could get the over at 211.5, and I think the under at 212.5 or better if you wait. I have that line set at 213.5, that's why I took the over.

Good luck!

[TechnicalTrader]

Thanks for the heads up. In deed it is CHA/DEN. Thx

As for conflicting signals; each chase is it's own chase. I have PHI signaling a first leg under,while DET is signaling a second leg over. Shopping or waiting/hoping for lines to move in my favor would be gambling and I do not gamble. I place my bets with discipline and manage my BR accordingly. I will lose one of them but my single bets are nothing more than one leg or part of a system. Even if I do lose a series or chase, my total exposure per chase is 14.33% of BR, so as of now I could still afford to lose ONE chase and still be up.

If I were to wait for lines to move and get caught on the wrong end, I could risk losing both bets and that is something I DO NOT want to do.

I hope you understand... You should. I'm basically scalping the market, taking both short and long positions simultaneously...

Thanks for the input though, very highly appreciated!

[4everNbluejeans]

I kinda figured that, that you wouldn't want to risk losing both sides. I'm just thinking about the juice.

[TechnicalTrader]

I kinda figured that, that you wouldn't want to risk losing both sides. I'm just thinking about the juice.

Of course. While backtesting (and I am talking about countless hours of backtesting) I was not able to take line shopping in to consideration and I'd prefer to keep my live plays as similar as possible to my backtests. Being almost a bit too anal about it.

I did use closing lines when backtesting but due to our time difference over here, I just simply can not stay up every night waiting for closing lines...

[4everNbluejeans]

Haha, I know all about the countless hours of backtesting - I can relate! I'm in the middle of testing mine on the early part of this season that i missed while too busy with the NFL - it's tedious, but worth it.

[TechnicalTrader]

Do you use SDQL?

[4everNbluejeans]

No, up until now I've done it all by hand - which has been helpful because I get a real feel for the numbers and make adjustments along the way - but now that my parameters are set I need a program to save time, so I'll look into it. Thanks for the tip.

Also, I took a look at your baseball thread - looks pretty exciting. I bet you're itching for baseball to start. I'll definitely follow that one.

[TechnicalTrader]

No, up until now I've done it all by hand - which has been helpful because I get a real feel for the numbers and make adjustments along the way - but now that my parameters are set I need a program to save time, so I'll look into it. Thanks for the tip.

Also, I took a look at your baseball thread - looks pretty exciting. I bet you're itching for baseball to start. I'll definitely follow that one.

In deed, I've been a student of the game for over 25 years and have played at semi pro levels as a catcher so I certainly have a feel for the game. Baseball is one of the few games which, if you understand the game, is one of the most exciting just due to the fact that most of the players still respect the game. The same can't be said about the NBA or NFL...

[TechnicalTrader]

Down $18.44 or 1.84% of starting BR on the day.

MIL/TOR	O 203.0	0.39%	L
CHI/LAC	O 209.0	0.82%	L
MIA/CLE	O 215.5	0.39%	L
DEN/CHA	O 221.0	2.55%	L
HOU/MEM	O 221.0	0.39%	W
PHI/DET	O 212.5	0.82%	W
PHI/DET	U 212.5	0.39%	L
SAS/MIN	O 205.5	1.21%	L
POR/BKN	U 224.0	0.82%	L
TOR	-1.5	0.39%	L
LAC	-2	0.82%	W
MIA	1	0.39%	W
CHA	5.5	0.39%	W
DET	-4.5	0.82%	W
MIN	8	1.73%	W
POR	11.5	0.78%	W

BR at $1'267.78 or up 26.77% (26.77 units)

[TechnicalTrader]

Looking at 16 bets tonight, risking about 20% of BR. Biggest bet will be 3.66% / BR.

See ya later

[4everNbluejeans]

Great night ATS, tough one on the totals. Mine went 2-1. Not going to sweat the close loss on CLE/MIA, couldn't see that they were going to rest LeBron, but that highlights the difficulty of placing bets early from Europe, and the late season unpredictabilty.

Look forward to your picks later. Looks like I'll have about 6.

[TechnicalTrader]

What were your three picks again?

A 2-1 night is a great night! Congrats, good work.

What also pisses me off is the fact that the CLE o/u line dropped, have I had been in the US, I would've got that line pregame and won it. Oh well

[4everNbluejeans]

DET/PHI over 209.5 W
CLE/MIA over 214.5 L
CHA/DEN under 222 W

The Det game was a 3% play, the others 2%.

[TechnicalTrader]

Up 2.5% BR on the night is awesome. Good stuff, looking forward to seeing your picks!

[TechnicalTrader]

Early game:

IND +3.0, 1.73%
ATL/IND O 208.5, 0.82%

I'll get the other picks up in about 3 hours. Off to the gym..

[4everNbluejeans]

Here are my picks:

IND/ATL O 208.5
GS/NY U 221
ORL/WAS U 215
BOS/PHX U 227.5
OKC/DAL O 204
NO/LAL U 215

The GS/NY is 3%, the rest 2%. Haven't locked in the BOS under yet, waiting to see if it moves higher still. Looks like I got a bad number for the Lakers game, the rest I'm happy with.

[TechnicalTrader]

IND	3	1.73%
UTA	-9	0.39%
GS	-10	1.73%
GS	-10	1.73%
LAL	6.5	1.73%
OKC	1	3.66%
BOS	-6.5	0.82%
WAS	-10.5	0.82%
ATL/IND	O 208.5	0.82%
SAC/UTA	O 192.5	0.82%
NYK/GS	O 219.0	0.39%
LAL/NO	O 216.0	1.73%
PHO/BOS	U 227.5	0.82%
PHO/BOS	O 227.5	1.73%
WAS/ORL	U 215.0	0.39%
WAS/ORL	O 215.0	0.82%
		20.13%

Look's like our systems don't agree on a few picks. It's a marathon though, let's get em tonight!

[4everNbluejeans]

Yeah, I've seen that our systems go head to head more often that together. Looks like we'll lose the one we have in common - IND/ATL over, unless it goes to overtime.

[TechnicalTrader]

I saw that. I usually don't watch games I bet on but nothing else was on so I decided to watch the IND/ATL game. Crazy how IND lost their ATS lead and then came back to win SU with less than a few seconds on the clock. I had more money on the ATS,so I'll take that.

[4everNbluejeans]

Same here on not watching the games, except early Sunday games sometimes. Bad 4th period, but glad you got the ATS win.

[TechnicalTrader]

LMAO, how and why do people watch these games. I've been watching the GS/NYK game. Comparable to a highschool game if you ask me. All of these guys are bums. I'd say about 5-15% of them play with their hearts, the rest of them are just there getting some primetime TV minutes in.

I can't wait for MLB to start. The only real cancer or threat there is that punk Harper...

[TechnicalTrader]

terrible night, looking to bounce back very soon!

IND	3	1.73%	W
UTA	-9	0.39%	L
GS	-10	1.73%	L
GS	-10	1.73%	L
LAL	6.5	1.73%	L
OKC	1	3.66%	L
BOS	-6.5	0.82%	L
WAS	-10.5	0.82%	L
ATL/IND	O 208.5	0.82%	L
SAC/UTA	O 192.5	0.82%	W
NYK/GS	O 219.0	0.39%	L
LAL/NO	O 216.0	1.73%	L
PHO/BOS	U 227.5	0.82%	W
PHO/BOS	O 227.5	1.73%	L
WAS/ORL	U 215.0	0.39%	L
WAS/ORL	O 215.0	0.82%	W

Down $154.28

BR at $1'113.50 or up 11.35% (11.35 units)

[4everNbluejeans]

Ouch! Those nights happen.
Mine went 3-3.
Too bad GS didn't hit a meaningless 3 at the end of the game to give you the ATS push and both of us the win, split down the middle for the total, but can't get hung up on individual games or days.
I'm tracking an ATS system based off of Nate Silver's numbers - it had been doing well, 57% for the year, but went 3-16 last week.

Big card today - have to find time to update my numbers - busy day!

[TechnicalTrader]

Nate Silver? Never heard of him...

Big card in deed. I have a few contradictions in here, but I'm going with what the system is asking for:

CLE	-8	0.39%
LAC	-7.5	0.39%
MEM	-11.5	0.39%
ATL	-5.5	3.66%
GS	5.5	3.66%
NO	7	0.39%
NYK	2	0.39%
DEN	-12	0.39%
CHI	5.5	0.39%
PHI	4.5	0.39%
SAS	-3.5	4.05%
POR	4.5	0.39%
CLE/MIA	O 215.5	0.78%
LAC/BOS	O 217.0	1.64%
MEM/BKN	U 213.5	1.73%
ATL/GS	O 216.5	0.78%
CHA/IND	O 206.0	1.73%
UTA/NO	U 198.5	0.39%
UTA/NO	O 198.5	3.66%
ORL/NYK	O 210.5	0.78%
DEN/SAC	O 216.0	2.12%
PHI/MIL	U 213.5	0.82%
SAS/HOU	O 221.5	1.73%
MIN/POR	O 214.5	0.82%
MIN/POR	U 214.5	0.82%

[slamuels2021]

Nathaniel "Nate" Silver is an American statistician and writer who analyzes baseball and elections. He is the editor-in-chief of ESPN's FiveThirtyEight and a Special Correspondent for ABC News.

[TechnicalTrader]

Nathaniel "Nate" Silver is an American statistician and writer who analyzes baseball and elections. He is the editor-in-chief of ESPN's FiveThirtyEight and a Special Correspondent for ABC News.

Thanks. Took a look at his work. Not really that impressed...

[4everNbluejeans]

I only have two picks for the day, despite all the games:

MIL/PHI O 212
HOU/SAS U222

A few more were close, but gotta stick with the numbers.

Good luck!

[TechnicalTrader]

Looks like we are on the other sides of both of your bets. Both of my wagers are relatively small, so I'll be ok with you being correct!

[TechnicalTrader]

Lost my big bets and all in all another down night.

LAC	-7.5	0.39%	W
MEM	-11.5	0.39%	W
ATL	-5.5	3.66%	L
GS	5.5	3.66%	W
NO	7	0.39%	W
NYK	2	0.39%	W
DEN	-12	0.39%	W
CHI	5.5	0.39%	L
PHI	4.5	0.39%	L
SAS	-3.5	4.05%	L
POR	4.5	0.39%	P
CLE/MIA	O 215.5	0.78%	L
LAC/BOS	O 217.0	1.64%	L
MEM/BKN	U 213.5	1.73%	L
ATL/GS	O 216.5	0.78%	W
CHA/IND	O 206.0	1.73%	L
UTA/NO	U 198.5	0.39%	W
UTA/NO	O 198.5	3.66%	L
ORL/NYK	O 210.5	0.78%	W
DEN/SAC	O 216.0	2.12%	L
PHI/MIL	U 213.5	0.82%	W
SAS/HOU	O 221.5	1.73%	W
MIN/POR	O 214.5	0.82%	P
MIN/POR	u 214.5	0.82%	P

Down $106.80, BR at $1006.70