[phil_abuster]

in the sac/mem game i gotta be missing something cuz this looks "2 good 2 b true"

based on skills/talent/performances to date we see:

sacramento kings r awful.
rated in the bottom third of a 30 team league ~23rd or 24th
kings r just 9-16 overall
woeful 4-10 on the road. this is a ROAD game.
they r 3-7 their past 10 (incl 7 road games)
against good opps like memphis, on the road,
they did defeat raptors early in nov,
but then lost by 8 @knicks
lost by 20 @jazz
lost by 34 @rockets
even on the road against mediocre/weak teams the kings
lost 5 and 4 of those by 6 pts or more!
and tonite likey to b w/o #2 best player!! (Rudy Gay)
but they r only 5.5 pt underdogs (??)

the grizz meanwhile r rated in the TOP third, ~8th or 9th
grizz r 18-9 overall despite 3 key players missing significant time
and tonite they get back their star guard/#2 scorer (Conley)!
grizz r 10-4 at home.
grizz r 7-3 past 10 (incl 7 home)
against loser teams like the kings, AT HOME, grizz r 8-1
grizz have all their starters back and key reserves
they r playing well and at home against a weak opp
so why only laying -5.5 now after opening -7?
this is barely more than standard homecourt edge if between 2 EQUAL opps!
but these aren't near equal opps! clearly memphis has a large edge here!
*btw, i am not a fan of ATS crap.
to me thats just a measure of coin flip results and basically irrelevent
except possibly to GO AGAINST the trend.
but if U r, the grizz appear to hold most the key edges there too!

grizz -5.5
i am also looking to doubledown on grizz but before i do that im hoping to here of some breaking development from any polite person here w/info that suggests a HUGE impact on expectations for a GOOD team - who r getting their star back - to cover a near standard homecourt edge against a much WEAKER team - and who r likely to miss their #2 player tonite

wtf am i missing?? anyone?
tia

update: although i bet -5.5, line now only -5
if grizz were playing a WINNING team like maybe utah, oklahoma, knicks, i would expect a home line of -5

[IBetYou]

Joeger returns to Fed Ex... (Barnes & Koufos too). Kings like their coach so I can see them giving extra effort for him here. I'd rather eat my fingers than bet them but I wouldn't be surprised if they pull it out.

[phil_abuster]

Joeger returns to Fed Ex... (Barnes & Koufos too). Kings like their coach so I can see them giving extra effort for him here. I'd rather eat my fingers than bet them but I wouldn't be surprised if they pull it out.

agreed

but they'll have to give that "extra effort" w/o their #2 best player and
meanwhile the grizz get back their #2 best player!
that's pretty significant counterbalance imo
and now the line is just standard homecourt edge given when 2 EQUAL teams meet

[IBetYou]

the standard homecourt edge given when 2 EQUAL teams meet ​is 3pts

[phil_abuster]

agreed

but they'll have to give that "extra effort" w/o their #2 best player and
meanwhile the grizz get back their #2 best player!
that's pretty significant counterbalance imo
and now the line is just standard homecourt edge given when 2 EQUAL teams meet

another way to look at the line on the homies just -5 is this:
if these 2 teams met on a NEUTRAL court somewhere,
like London or Mexico or Sheboygan,
the 9-16 kings - but now likely worse w/o their #2 guy, remember -
would b a PICK, or maybe +1.5
vs the 18-9 grizz - who should b better w/their #2 guy back

[phil_abuster]

the standard homecourt edge given when 2 EQUAL teams meet ​is 3pts

i stand corrected it is down to -3 -3.5 depending on team

[IBetYou]

Over the past 3 seasons the average home line is -2.813

[teecee]

agreed

but they'll have to give that "extra effort" w/o their #2 best player and
meanwhile the grizz get back their #2 best player!
that's pretty significant counterbalance imo
and now the line is just standard homecourt edge given when 2 EQUAL teams meet

These two teams are not equal. Memphis > Sacramento.

[phil_abuster]

These two teams are not equal. Memphis > Sacramento.

agreed!!
my point was IF 2 equal teams met, i might expect a line like -5 (or close)
but because there is obviously a WIDE difference between these here,
esp given that kings likely w/o their #2 guy (Gay) in the lineup
while grizz get back their #2 guy (Conley)
why has this line dropped from -7 to -5.5 to -5
and now i see some listing -4.5 ??

even on a neutral court i would still expect the grizz to b ~5 to 7 pt favs
anyone have a convincing explanation (keeping in mind the injury situations) ?

[teecee]

I just don't pay much attention to line movement. Sorry.

[phil_abuster]

I just don't pay much attention to line movement. Sorry.

u may want to consider it though,
cuz any significant line move usually means one of two things:
either big money moving it OR
a late breaking player development - this latter likely being important for capping purposes

btw for anyone reading this,
Rudy Gay's status for the kings has been changed from doubtful to OUT
and inexplicably lines of -4.5 on grizz around all over now
they will b w/o Ennis, yes, but not a great loss there as green, randolph, and williams will get more playing time and they r more than adequate to fill any gap

[phil_abuster]

adding:
atl/tor 1q ov 52.5
atl/tor 3q un 55.5

and i doubled-down on memphis* to make a BESTBET (bets at -5.5 and -5)

raptors also look like a good play but im gonna try and play it live at a smaller line IF hawks go on an early 1q run first.

[phil_abuster]

lac/mia 1q un 53.5
lakers 1qtt un 27