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Thunder @ Warriors game 7 preview
Facts
Home teams are 100-24 (80.6%) in game 7's
Home teams are 3-0 in game 7's in this season's NBA playoffs.
Warriors are 9-2 ATS in last 11 home games.
Warriors are 8-1 at home this playoffs.
Home team is 15-5 ATS in the last 20 games between these 2 teams.
Thunder are +52 in the paint at home, but surprisingly -30 in the paint in the 3 games played at Oracle.
Warriors are averaging 4.3 more 3's made per game than the Thunder in this series. (Huge differential).
Westbrook & KD are not having a good series, shooting combined 40% fg% and 29% from deep, making only 3.3 per game (combined).
OKC are 5-3 on the road this playoffs (excellent record).
OKC are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a loss, however are only 1-6 ATS in their last 7 at Oracle.
Opinions
The Thunder fell into alarming old habits at the end of game 6, with KD & Westbrook playing 1 on 5 stagnant iso ball. This netted them 2 points in the final 3 minutes. OKC led the whole game & GS didn't hit the front until the final 90 seconds, when they blew the game wide open and OKC collapsed. Where was the ball movement that had been so successful up to this point in the series?
Thunder were ice cold from beyond (3 from 23 - 13%) and the Warriors were red hot (21 from 45 - 46.7%) with a ridiculous +54 differential.
How are Durant's & Westbrooks heads? Their mental states? They had the Warriors by the cajones, in a dominant position up 3-1, history tells us it is all over (223-9 96.2% chance of winning the series!). Now history is strongly against them with a 19.4% chance to win this game & hence the series. How do you deal with that?
How do you come into Oracle facing elimination against the defending champs who have their mojo back?
You would need a Jordan/Bryant type killer mentality to stay calm and focused & I strongly doubt these two spoon fed superstars have anything close to that type of mentality (especially KD who has never really risen to the occasion when presented with opportunities in the past).
Two close out games blown & now moving back to Oracle for game 7 with both the splash brothers hot from beyond the arc & the enigmatic Green coming off 2 decent games in a row, to the point where you could say Green has a little big of his swagger back (and as Green goes so do the Warriors).
They are at home with arguably the leagues best home crowd going mental (can you say hostile environment) and most importantly of all they have ALL the momentum, and the Warriors have proven to be at their most dangerous when they are rolling (momentum). How do you come back from this hole for OKC? I don't think they can. I think things fall apart in the 2nd half and they lose by a double digit margin. This could get ugly...
Play
2.5* Warriors -7
(disclaimer - I have had a horrible run this playoffs, but have had long term success betting NBA)
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Originally Posted by italianbandit
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