1. 05-23-16 11:16 AM #1
    ZP3
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    OKC Future to Win it all 20/1...Hedging Help?

    Hello all. I have an OKC Future to win it all at 20/1, $500 to win $10,000.

    I truly believe they will finish the Warriors and face the Cavs in the final.

    Right now the Cavs are +145 to win it all.

    My question is should i hedge some now with the Cavs (thinking $500 or $1,000) to at least reclaim my initial bet, knowing that the Cavs will likely be favored vs the Thunder (thoughts on this) ?

    Another option is I could lay some on the Field vs GS (-165) and have the opportunity to win regardless of the outcome of an OKC/CLE final (only way this loses is if both Thunder and Cavs go down)

    What are everyone's thoughts? Help much appreciated.

    -Z
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  2. 05-23-16 11:22 AM #2
    iloseagain
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    its very hard to hedge these kinds of bets... i dont think theres really anything you can do to hedge this man.. just best off letting it play out, and hoping OKC makes the finals.

    i would take GS -130 to win the series now for the 500.. then you break even at worst.. then if okc wins, you have $9350 free roll on OKC to win the ship.. Take Cle to hedge that amount if OKC gets to the finals
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  3. 05-23-16 11:24 AM #3
    ZP3
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    What would the potential series line be on a Cavs/Thunder Finals in everyone's opinion?
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  4. 05-23-16 11:35 AM #4
    Hu$tle
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    Cavs -250? -200?
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  5. 05-23-16 11:41 AM #5
    Hu$tle
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    So a few scenarios play out assuming cavs win.

    Okc vs cle. Cle wins
    Okc vs cle. okc wins
    Gs vs cle. Gs wins
    Gs vs cle. Cle wins

    The real question is how much guaranteed do you want to lock in?
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  6. 05-23-16 11:42 AM #6
    iloseagain
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hu$tle View Post
    Cavs -250? -200?
    i think itd be -200 or lower. If OKC rolls thru GS, after rolling thru Spurs, how on earth will Cavs be higher than -200?
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  7. 05-23-16 11:42 AM #7
    iloseagain
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    and im not saying you are wrong hustle, thats just my opinion
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  8. 05-23-16 12:17 PM #8
    Hu$tle
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    I can see -200 books love juicing cavs though
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  9. 05-23-16 12:48 PM #9
    thunderous
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    I wouldn't do anything unless $500 is a lot for you or you have recently lost some money.

    I wouldn't bet Cavs yet...what if OKC doesn't make it and then GS beat the cavs?
    And I am assuming GS would be -160 or -180 in the finals to win the series against Cavs so it will be a bad bet.
    On the flip side if its Cavs/OKC then they would be -130 or -140 because of home court advantage which will make the +145 look great.
    And all this discussion is assuming Cavs are getting there....what if they shit the bed and the Raptors beat them? (highly unlikely) but I wouldn't take chances.
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  10. 05-23-16 01:23 PM #10
    ZP3
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    Leaning toward letting it ride...$500 is $500 and i can't see any value of hedging a 20/1 on the hottest team left at the moment. Thunder Up gentlemen!
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  11. 05-23-16 01:41 PM #11
    strictlypaypal
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    Cavs would be about -165 if okc finishes GSW. If Cleveland would have swept Toronto it would've been around -190

    Anyways to the OP
    I have $1200 to win $15600 on okc +1300

    I already put $500 on Cleveland to win $600 with the winnings from okc ml game 1 vs warriors and never collected anything from my bookie so that's $1100 I'd get back

    As far as us it's too early to hedge
    Okc needs to finish GSW to advance.
    If that happens I'm debating on what to do whether to ride it out
    I did some calculations I'd either win $7k with okc winning or $5k with Cleveland winning hedging correctly.

    That being said its a lot of money but not game changing for me like how $15k would be so I am debating right now
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  12. 05-23-16 03:59 PM #12
    pinchegringo
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    Take CLE now, you can still get +odds.

    If GSW advance past OKC (which is prbly 50-50) I really doubt that they beat CLE.

    You could actually make 2 pretty good bets right now taking GSW +145 and CLE +150. IF either win which it is pretty likely you make money on the sides. If OKC wins you win your 20-1.
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  13. 05-23-16 04:58 PM #13
    terpkeg
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    No. Wait and see if you think there is value in Cavs series. Without actually doing math, I'm confident you will be paying too much juice taking Cavs now. Wasteful.
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  14. 05-23-16 05:21 PM #14
    pinchegringo
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    Quote Originally Posted by terpkeg View Post
    No. Wait and see if you think there is value in Cavs series. Without actually doing math, I'm confident you will be paying too much juice taking Cavs now. Wasteful.
    Cavs line is only going to get worse.

    Unless you are thinking GSW beat OKC, in which case yea wait on Cavs take GSW now.

    I dont want to say OKC winning their series is a foregone conclusion but GSW havent look great since march. I feel OKC being up 2-1 is far from shocking.

    Cavs should be -200 or higher against OKC in the finals.
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  15. 05-23-16 05:27 PM #15
    pinchegringo
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    um wow never mind, 5 dimes shows that if CLE and OKC should meet CLE is only -115 vs OKC -105

    That line freaks me out.

    I am seeing now you can find some other better lines other than futures.

    OKC loses in finals +316
    GSW loses in finals +424
    CLE loses in finals -146 LMAO


    Either vegas or the public or both really do not like CLE. I really hope that is public fade money.
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  16. 05-23-16 05:41 PM #16
    JayDr3am
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    let it ride z! have faith
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  17. 05-23-16 06:20 PM #17
    BigAlB
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    If your confident as of right now that the thunder will beat okc, and I don't see why betting 500$ on Cleveland to win it all before they get the 3-1 lead isnt the best possible move. Again, this is taking into account the fact that you believe they will win this series over gs.
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