1. 02-29-16 08:54 AM #1
    LT Profits
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    NBA - Monday, 2/29/16

    1 NBA Play Monday

    Nuggets +2.5 -105 (Heritage)


    YTD: 184-160-5, +19.37
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  2. 02-29-16 08:57 AM #2
    lakerboy
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    Why not ml?
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  3. 02-29-16 09:05 AM #3
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by lakerboy View Post
    Why not ml?
    For a +2.5 at -105, I'd want at least +130 ML and I couldn't find one.
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  4. 02-29-16 09:09 AM #4
    lakerboy
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    Fair enough. Gl today.

    You don't like indiana?
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  5. 02-29-16 09:10 AM #5
    lilpete
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    this is how you win at sports betting, pick and choose spots dont bet every game on the board
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  6. 02-29-16 09:16 AM #6
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by lakerboy View Post
    Fair enough. Gl today.

    You don't like indiana?
    My model loves Indy, it has Cleveland -6.04. I am waiting to see what the line does, variance is a bit TOO much from model right now.
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  7. 02-29-16 09:35 AM #7
    R.P. McMurphy
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    Wouldn't the variance make a play on Indy more enticing and have more value LT? Books probably just overcompensating line a bit with Indy playing yesterday. Cavs did as well but with no LBJ they know bettors will forgive Cavs and expect bounce back tonight. Paul George been struggling past 2 games as well so might look for a over prop on him. Bol like Nugs myself
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  8. 02-29-16 09:37 AM #8
    jjgold
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    Denver Strong
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  9. 02-29-16 10:02 AM #9
    posey_mvp
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    I'm actually taking Memphis because Gallo is out..
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  10. 02-29-16 10:46 AM #10
    RavensFan2k3
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    For a +2.5 at -105, I'd want at least +130 ML and I couldn't find one.
    But do you think they win SU?
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  11. 02-29-16 11:13 AM #11
    TxAaron
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    Den best scorer out. Have to fade here.
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  12. 02-29-16 11:16 AM #12
    juicername
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    Do your model take player injuries into account LT?
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  13. 02-29-16 11:28 AM #13
    squarenfl
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    Gallinari is out and line moves the opposite direction from denver +2.5 to denver +1.5?
    whats up with that?
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  14. 02-29-16 11:43 AM #14
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by juicername View Post
    Do your model take player injuries into account LT?
    Yes and I already have Gallinari out of the lineup
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  15. 02-29-16 11:46 AM #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by R.P. McMurphy View Post
    Wouldn't the variance make a play on Indy more enticing and have more value LT?
    Theoretically yes but I hate large variance because always make me think I am missing something. I would actually prefer line movement toward my number while still leaving room to be +EV.
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  16. 02-29-16 11:48 AM #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by squarenfl View Post
    Gallinari is out and line moves the opposite direction from denver +2.5 to denver +1.5?
    whats up with that?
    The injury is irrelevant to line move because books already knew he was out when setting the original 2.5.
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  17. 02-29-16 11:49 AM #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by RavensFan2k3 View Post
    But do you think they win SU?
    Well, I have them winning SU 45% of the time. I think the +2.5 was the better play.
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  18. 02-29-16 11:51 AM #18
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    1 NBA Addition

    2 NBA Plays Monday

    Nuggets +2.5 -105 (Heritage)
    Grizzlies / Nuggets UNDER 206 -107 (5 Dimes)
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  19. 02-29-16 11:57 AM #19
    Vinnie Paz
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    How about Celtics game?
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  20. 02-29-16 04:23 PM #20
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    1 NBA Addition

    3 NBA Plays Monday

    Jazz +5 -104 (5 Dimes)
    Nuggets +2.5 -105 (Heritage)
    Grizzlies / Nuggets UNDER 206 -107 (5 Dimes)
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  21. 02-29-16 04:24 PM #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vinnie Paz View Post
    How about Celtics game?
    I added Jazz
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  22. 02-29-16 04:51 PM #22
    jjgold
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  23. 02-29-16 04:53 PM #23
    funnyb25
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    NBA seems so weird to me.. Looking at this line it seems as if the Celtics should win by double digits easily. Why is a 10 game above. 500 team only a 5 point favorite at home to a 9-18 road team? I don't see injuries. Doesn't make sense to me..
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  24. 02-29-16 05:08 PM #24
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    1 Last NBA Addition

    4 NBA Plays Monday

    Jazz +5 -104 (5 Dimes)
    Nuggets +2.5 -105 (Heritage)
    Grizzlies / Nuggets UNDER 206 -107 (5 Dimes)
    Thunder / Kings UNDER 226.5 -105 (5 Dimes)
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