[jjgold]

[smitch124]

Hey the Utah Rocky Mountains are good!

[Halfapointoff]

Real question is why did the wiz open as fav. Utah .500 Wash under .500. Utah play better D and Utah 8-2 last 10 while Wash 3-7

[unde0087]

They lick nuts that's why, a team full of nursing home vets could post 100+ on these clowns

[klemopixx]

BEWARE! First game back from the break is always a little weird. Shots will be off, guys will be rusty. I'm laying off the NBA till the weekend.

[JIBBBY]

Utah has been playing better of late.. I like Utah..

Coming off the break it could get weird in games I agree..

[jjgold]

I will go with home team here

[KVB]

One reason Washington may be an Underdog tonight is that, while many unsophisticated lines may actually have Washington winning by a point or so, the more sophisticated forecasts give Utah up to a 5 point win. The oddsmakers know the deal and opened a line that was clearly off in order to direct certain groups of bettors towards Washington.

They picked up that money then moved the line according to the sharper forecasts. Those holding Washington are left to wonder whether they made a decent bet. Others chase the move and now we see a 2 point line.

Come this afternoon the Washington backers late to the party hear there is a good deal and take it. The Utah players, at around 2 points are getting the worst of the advantage play.

I believe the strong support for the Underdog Moneyline and some public support for the home team is keeping the Utah line from heading closer to 3 or 4 points.

A 1 point win from Utah would be interesting as those sharps betting into the oddsmaker error just a little late would get a push. Another potential outcome is a Washington 1 point win, effectively pushing those early Washington backers, reducing some parlays. Either way a push tends to get the books out of the jam the oddsmakers put them in with this game.

Good Luck.

[Harry N. Lloyd]

I will go with home team here

I'm gonna tail ya here, JJ. Let's get it!!

[JIBBBY]

Utah had won 7 games in a row before losing the final game before heading into the all star break.. 8-2 record in their last 10 games.. That's solid play!!!

Wizards were limping into the All Star break and playing like garbage. 3-7 in their last 10 games...Utah is currently a 7th seed playoff team in the West which is a surprise.... Wizards currently hold a record of just 23-28 today..

That is why the line is what it is. Utah should be favored and should win out right....

[Luckycharms2012]

BEWARE! First game back from the break is always a little weird. Shots will be off, guys will be rusty. I'm laying off the NBA till the weekend.

Under

[Seto]

Because they suck and the Jazz are one of the hottest teams in the league.

[dfish]

1. In November 1995, owner Abe Pollin announced he was changing the team's nickname, because Bullets had acquired violent overtones that had made him increasingly uncomfortable over the years, particularly given the high homicide and crime rate in the early 1990s in Washington, D.C.
   

[jjgold]

tight early

I have a nice position on Bullets men

[Grits n' Gravy]

tight early

I have a nice position on Bullets men

is that position bent over taking it in the chute?

[jjgold]

Gritter take me for lunch man

Summerlin..common

[IBetYou]

1. In November 1995, owner Abe Pollin announced he was changing the team's nickname, because Bullets had acquired violent overtones that had made him increasingly uncomfortable over the years, particularly given the high homicide and crime rate in the early 1990s in Washington, D.C.
   

They had a throw back day recently with the scoredboard and the announcers calling them the baltimore bullets. I guess it was ok to shoot people that day

[IBetYou]

The oddsmakers know the deal and opened a line that was clearly off in order to direct certain groups of bettors towards Washington.

you don't really believe that sh1t? what evidence is there that the masses will follow the 1-2pt fav or steer clear of a 1-2pt dog?

[jjgold]

[KVB]

The oddsmakers know the deal and opened a line that was clearly off in order to direct certain groups of bettors towards Washington.

you don't really believe that sh1t? what evidence is there that the masses will follow the 1-2pt fav or steer clear of a 1-2pt dog?

There are many ways to handicap these markets, not just one. There are many groups responding to different signals from the markets. The books are in turn generating responses from those segments of the markets. I understand why the line opened with Washington favored and am comfortable with the line movement.

To further clarify, I never used the term "masses" and it is nowhere near appropriate to my analysis. You misunderstood what was written. I was referring to market moving money and those that place it.

I answered the question posed in the title with the true nuts and bolts answer on why the line opened where it did and why it moved to where it moved.

I'm the only one in this thread that did so. Others may have tried with streaky ATS stats, but, realistically, those are more geered towards your "masses."

[LtDarsh]

Utah sucks

[Don_Omarion]

i have never seen wasting chances like this !!! they lose ball without any action from WASH , throw it wrongly out and others
just good to be good against big teams and now lose to group of losers who should lose by 20 !!! lol NBA

[Don_Omarion]

Utah sucks

man I can not believe what iam watching !! they were down by 6 and wasted 2 back-to-back chances by throwing ball on floor or out

I must fade this team till the end of league !!!

[IBetYou]

I assumed when you were referring to certain groups you were referring to the square majority vs the sharp elite. What other distinction would there be?

[KVB]

...what evidence is there that the masses will follow the 1-2pt fav or steer clear of a 1-2pt dog?

In short, because of the predictibility of market moving money, there is a statistically significant difference between these three categories...favorite, underdog, and pick 'em.

If a game is essentially a pick em, the oddsmakers often have tremendous influence with that opening line, even if just to favor a team by one point.

Usually, all the "masses" here is that a team is favored over another.

Don't neglect the psychological component of the marketplace, those who do are weaker competitiors.

[RavensFan2k3]

Hope you played Washington JJ

[IBetYou]

Not the first time I've heard someone mention market manipulation by oddsmakers, but it just doesn't ring true. Oddsmakers just want to get opinion split right down the middle.

Reason for the line change tonight (2pts) imo was, as mentioned above, the recent form of the Jazz. The betting public respond a bit quicker to recent form than Vegas do. Sometimes the people are right and sometimes Vegas is.

[RavensFan2k3]

Not the first time I've heard someone mention market manipulation by oddsmakers, but it just doesn't ring true. Oddsmakers just want to get opinion split right down the middle.

Reason for the line change tonight (2pts) imo was, as mentioned above, the recent form of the Jazz. The betting public respond a bit quicker to recent form than Vegas do. Sometimes the people are right and sometimes Vegas is.

Why would they want action down the middle?

[IBetYou]

Why would they want action down the middle?

For a guaranteed profit i.e same winning amount either side

[JIBBBY]

Good call JJ you hit this!!! Utah folded like a cheap suit on the road after the lay off.. Bullets came out hungry and it showed..

[Don_Omarion]

playing WASH live at 4th quarter ML and -1,5 was a lock !!! took ML for 1,2 Units and got my lost 1 unit with 0.2 profit lol , but better than losing !!!

[KVB]

I assumed when you were referring to certain groups you were referring to the square majority vs the sharp elite. What other distinction would there be?

There are as many ways to handicap as there are handicappers. To break it down into two groups is ridiculous to say the least.

[KVB]

I will go with home team here

[KVB]

Not the first time I've heard someone mention market manipulation by oddsmakers, but it just doesn't ring true. Oddsmakers just want to get opinion split right down the middle...

This is a myth and quite frankly just about mathematically impossible in every situation. The books will never split the money exactly evenly and don't try to...they seek enough action.

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/foru...idnt-read.html

[jjgold]

"JJ your pretty sharp"