[BuddyBear]

If you are going to play CLEV at the series price, it's probably better to just bet them on the ML in every game. They are going to be ML underdogs in every game except possibly GM 3. where they may be -1 or something like that. On the other hand, playing SA on the ML each game could be problematic since if they lose one, especially at home, you'll pay a big price for it.

My reasoning is such that in a 7 game series the best team is almost always going to win. Consider if the Spurs take a single road game in CLEV in all likelihood, CLEV would have to win this series in either GM 6 or a GM 7 on the road and that is highly unlikely. Consdier the major advantages in having the home court, a strong road record, the better players, the better defense, experience, coaching, etc....it's hard to imagine a scenario where CLEV could win this thing.

Of course, they could. They have won both meetings this year, they are riding a wave of momentum, they have Lebron James, and the 2-3-2 format of the NBA finals seems to help the underdog more than it does the favorite. It was not too long ago DET beat LAL in a series where they were huge dogs. Those are strong cases for CLEV no doubt. Even so, I still think the inexperience of CLEV and the fact that they play in the East is going to hurt them. Wash, NJ, and DET are no San Antonio. The quality and style of basketball in the West is far superior than that of the East. No way Lebron scores 25 straight points against this high quality of a team.

Going to play .5 units on SA -450 to win the series.

[gridironguy]

In the 2-3-2 format, the team with HC advantage is simply the team with the better regular season record, not necessarily the better or favored team. In this case, SA should clearly be the fav
and that is reflected in the series price.

In 2004, as you mentioned, very few ppl thought the Pistons would beat the Lakers. It was a thrashing, only 5 games.

In 2006, most people thought Dallas would beat Miami, and it was reflected in the series price. I believe Dallas was a 2.5 to 1 fav, possibly even 3 to 1.

Cleveland has a real chance to win the series if they can steal game 1 or 2 in SA. The Cavs have better answers for Duncan and Parker on defense, than the Spurs have for Lebron. Cavs big bodies will bother Duncan. Spurs Bowen, Vaughn, Ginobli, will get eaten alive in the post by Lebron. Double-teams and kick outs all day long.

Cleveland is a live dog in every game.

[Razz]

Dallas opened -137 at Pinnacle for the series last year. I bet them at that number actually. I think it closed around -170.

Why is nobody talking about Ginobili? Who the **** is going to stop him?

[austintx05]

I think Game 1 could tell the story

[BuddyBear]

I am slightly concerned about the NBA possibly favoring Cleveland to win this game and establish the legacy of Lebron James and such. I think that is a legitimate concern.

[gridironguy]

I think Game 1 could tell the story

Last year, Dallas smacked Miami in games 1 AND 2.

Didn't matter.

In 1991, the Lakers beat Chicago in Game 1, then lost 4 straight.

In 2001, the 76ers beat the Lakers in Game 1, then lost 4 straight.

Game 1 will be just that, Game 1. If anything, the winner of Game 1 will have to be ready for a spirited effort from their opponent in Game 2

[Tchocky]

I still think the Spurs are overpriced. Not much value in San Antonio unless you are convinced they are going to win this series and you are willing to wager a bundle. Federer to win Wimbledon or Nadal/Henin to win the French is a much better play.