Great job man
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01-27-10 02:35 PM #36
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01-28-10 05:57 AM #37
Another positive night for the sim - High % plays go 6-2-1 and the card stuffers go 5-2.
Originally Posted by djiddish98
35 - 18 / 0.66 12 - 7 / 0.63
These are the historical records of the card stuffers (below 60%) and higher %s. I reran my sim and when the line hit +2.5 for Denver, they became a 61% play, so they are include in my high % record (there might be more changes like that in the future FYI).
I'm well aware that someone doesn't pick 66% right in the long term, so temper expectations, but good luck!
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01-28-10 06:32 AM #38
Preliminary plays for the day:
Toronto Raptors - Spread: 3 (61.91%)
Card stuffers
Orlando Magic - Spread: -3.5 (55.24%)
Dallas Mavericks - Spread: 2 (55.18%)
Hopefully I'll get a chance to run the sims once I factor in last night's data - Lines look like they opened very tight today - all the over / unders were about even, and the two card stuffer games have pretty mild %s to endorse those picks.
Toronto played last night, so we'll see what the updated numbers think of them.
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01-28-10 02:14 PM #39
Revised plays for today - The Raps might be a risk because I'm not quite sure how badly the Knicks dropped after that Dallas beatdown - nate rob is back as well.
Toronto Raptors - Spread: 3.5 (66.22%)
Card stuffers
Orlando Magic - Spread: -3.5 (56.29%)
Boston Celtics / Orlando Magic - Under: 189.5 (57.76%)
Dallas Mavericks - Spread: 2 (56.41%)
Good luck
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01-29-10 08:41 AM #40
The card stuffers all fail, which isn't surprising given the mediocre probability on them. I bet against the sim because that Raptors play was shaping up as a very square bet - perhaps I learned my lesson. Originally Posted by djiddish98
36 - 18 / 0.67 12 - 10 / 0.55
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01-29-10 08:52 AM #41
Prelim plays - waiting on last night's data. Fridays and Sundays always seem to have the most errors, so be careful. We're due for a bit of a correction on those strong plays.
Chicago Bulls - Spread: 4 (79.94%)
Cleveland Cavaliers - Spread: -6 (73.78%)
Cleveland Cavaliers / Indiana Pacers - Under: 205.5 (70.14%)
Portland Trail Blazers - Spread: 5.5 (69.88%)
Los Angeles Lakers / Philadelphia 76ers - Under: 202.5 (69.25%)
Memphis Grizzlies / San Antonio Spurs - Over: 199 (73.80%)
Card stuffers
Boston Celtics / Atlanta Hawks - Under: 191 (56.01%)
Charlotte Bobcats / Golden State Warriors - Over: 208 (58.00%)
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01-29-10 11:36 AM #42
Revised picks:
Chicago Bulls - Spread: 4.5 (84.01%)
Utah Jazz - Spread: -9 (61.32%)
Denver Nuggets / Oklahoma City Thunder - Under: 202.5 (67.33%)
Washington Wizards - Spread: -3.5 (69.39%)
Washington Wizards / New Jersey Nets - Over: 193 (60.14%)
Cleveland Cavaliers - Spread: -6 (73.81%)
Cleveland Cavaliers / Indiana Pacers - Under: 203.5 (63.14%)
Portland Trail Blazers - Spread: 6 (69.84%)
Los Angeles Lakers / Philadelphia 76ers - Under: 204 (71.34%)
Memphis Grizzlies / San Antonio Spurs - Over: 200 (75.64%)
Minnesota Timberwolves - Spread: -1 (75.17%)
Card stuffers
Charlotte Bobcats / Golden State Warriors - Over: 209 (56.77%)
Oklahoma City Thunder - Spread: -1.5 (56.95%)
Los Angeles Lakers - Spread: -6.5 (57.30%)
I'd just say away from card stuffers unless you have some additional information on these games - they tend to basically be 50 / 50 splits, because it doesn't take much of an error to throw the game off.
Bulls are an 84% play - this seems fishy to me; I think most bettors are aware of their hot streak. We also have more Wizards bets to throw things off!
Enjoy
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01-29-10 12:04 PM #43
Also, keep in mind for the Jazz that boozer and Deron are both out - Deron is a core piece of that team. Still, I'll probably bet it anyway if the public is against the play.
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01-29-10 03:01 PM #44
I think I've setup a backtest for the system that I plan on running overnight - are these results for real or just a hot streak? I'm thinking hot streak.
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01-30-10 07:50 AM #45
Another strong night - Originally Posted by djiddish98
56 - 20 / 0.74-0.68 23 - 20 / 0.53-0.58
Edit: Ignore this record -it looks a little dubious - a lot of posted losers from the first 3 days are not in here for some reason - hopefully this will get fixed with backtest;
I have some picks in this record that were not posted, so feel free to disregard the overall record - these numbers are now coming from my personal log as opposed to what I had up on the board - the log is different because on the first 3 days, the formula got a slight modification which added two winning picks to the >60% side (I believe) - I also found an error in the log that was grading home spreads wrong - that's been fixed so yesterday's record might not match up with today's based on last night alone.
I've also added all the picks > .55% from the sim (before I was only posting >.58) hence the card stuffer average looks a lot bigger than posted (although the record is rather paltry).
The backtest crashed last night so I'll give it another shot today.
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01-30-10 10:45 AM #46
Nice picks so far man, I'll probably tail a couple of your picks for today if you have any...
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01-30-10 11:13 AM #47
Here are today's preliminary plays - don't have all of last night's data yet; I haven't delineated the card stuffers, but it's anything less than 60% (at the bottom).
New York Knickerbockers / Washington Wizards - Under: 204.5 (61.50%)
Charlotte Bobcats / Sacramento Kings - Under: 198.5 (64.53%)
Orlando Magic - Spread: -5.5 (69.18%)
New Orleans Hornets / Memphis Grizzlies - Under: 204.5 (63.62%)
Milwaukee Bucks - Spread: -4 (58.82%)
Charlotte Bobcats - Spread: -1 (58.02%)
Portland Trail Blazers - Spread: 8.5 (58.17%)
New Orleans Hornets - Spread: 6.5 (56.02%)
Good luck!
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01-31-10 09:48 AM #48
Some good results last night, although the backtest basically proved that this will only hit 51% over time - either my backtest has an error or the system is definitely due for a correction. Fade or Tail with caution. Originally Posted by djiddish98
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01-31-10 10:08 AM #49
New York Knickerbockers / Minnesota Timberwolves - Under: 211 (73.29%)
Indiana Pacers / Toronto Raptors - Over: 217.5 (63.42%)
Philadelphia 76ers - Spread: -4.5 (71.55%)
Philadelphia 76ers / New Jersey Nets - Over: 188.5 (60.48%)
Orlando Magic - Spread: -5 (61.63%)
San Antonio Spurs - Spread: -5 (64.65%)
Phoenix Suns / Houston Rockets - Over: 218 (60.18%)
Golden State Warriors / Oklahoma City Thunder - Under: 215 (77.97%)
Los Angeles Lakers - Spread: 1 (60.72%)
Los Angeles Lakers / Boston Celtics - Under: 195 (63.93%)
Cleveland Cavaliers - Spread: -11.5 (73.73%)
Los Angeles Clippers / Cleveland Cavaliers - Over: 191.5 (67.70%)
Orlando Magic / Detroit Pistons - Under: 187 (55.99%)
Houston Rockets - Spread: -3.5 (55.34%)
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02-01-10 08:10 AM #50
A lot of these picks were very close - if you didn't get the right line for a lot of these totals, you either pushed or lost. Yesterday was another day filled with a lot of high errors that threw off some games. I'm surprised we did as well as we did. Originally Posted by djiddish98
I'm running a lot of backtests to try and find the optimal setup (although I think this system [like all systems?] is doomed for 50% success rate regardless of how I approach things.
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02-01-10 08:23 AM #51
I don't care what others say, but I will tail you in the next few days...
Keep it up BOL and GL to your system's plays for today!
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02-01-10 10:41 AM #52
Boston Celtics - Spread: -4.5 (70.56%)
Boston Celtics / Washington Wizards - Over: 191 (60.20%)
Miami Heat - Spread: -6.5 (62.94%)
Utah Jazz - Spread: -4 (61.42%)
Charlotte Bobcats / Portland Trail Blazers - Over: 189.5 (78.37%)
Sacramento Kings / Denver Nuggets - Under: 209.5 (66.67%)
Phoenix Suns / New Orleans Hornets - Over: 212.5 (92.53%)
Los Angeles Lakers / Memphis Grizzlies - Under: 207 (66.70%)
Dallas Mavericks / Utah Jazz - Over: 199 (57.31%)
Denver Nuggets - Spread: -11.5 (55.88%)
This new formula weights the last 5 games at ~75% of the total efficiency estimate - this has yet to be proven as an increase in accuracy, so we'll see.
The Hornets / Suns game has a ridiculous over %, which means that Vegas has discounted the total line heavily due to (I presume) the Chris Paul injury - the total line has increased since it opened, so use enough judgement before booking.
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02-01-10 10:54 AM #53
Nice damn run... Keep it up
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02-01-10 08:29 PM #54
Well, these picks have stunk it up so far - I'm thinking the weighting is too high. I'll revert back to the old weights and continue onward - never stop fiddling!
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02-02-10 07:26 AM #55
Last night was a sloppy night for the picks - I've reverted back to the old weighting (no game should ever be above 90% or even 70% for that matter). Originally Posted by djiddish98
For those interseted, here were the picks
Boston Celtics - Spread: -5 (60.86%)
Boston Celtics / Washington Wizards - Over: 190 (61.29%)
Milwaukee Bucks / Miami Heat - Under: 188 (69.30%)
Charlotte Bobcats / Portland Trail Blazers - Over: 189.5 (68.22%)
Sacramento Kings / Denver Nuggets - Under: 211.5 (66.15%)
New Orleans Hornets - Spread: -1 (62.50%)
Phoenix Suns / New Orleans Hornets - Over: 212.5 (74.49%)
Los Angeles Lakers / Memphis Grizzlies - Under: 206 (69.11%)
Utah Jazz - Spread: -4 (55.94%)
Dallas Mavericks / Utah Jazz - Over: 199.5 (55.81%)
About the same results, although I'm more comfortable with these (no more 90%). I'm going to be thinking about my approach going forward.
Also, tough luck on that Sacramento Under - You can't always be saved by OT.
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02-02-10 07:39 AM #56
Again, thanks for the heads up Djiddish98!
BOL to your plays today!
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02-02-10 09:41 AM #57
Milwaukee Bucks - Spread: 9.5 (60.56%)
Milwaukee Bucks / Orlando Magic - Under: 194.5 (71.36%)
Toronto Raptors - Spread: 1 (76.02%)
Toronto Raptors / Indiana Pacers - Under: 219 (60.11%)
Oklahoma City Thunder - Spread: -1 (70.62%)
Golden State Warriors / Houston Rockets - Under: 219 (77.80%)
Detroit Pistons / New Jersey Nets - Under: 183.5 (70.17%)
Memphis Grizzlies - Spread: 10.5 (62.55%)
Memphis Grizzlies / Cleveland Cavaliers - Over: 201.5 (61.46%)
Chicago Bulls - Spread: -8 (75.59%)
Atlanta Hawks / Oklahoma City Thunder - Over: 192.5 (57.83%)
Detroit Pistons - Spread: -2.5 (55.65%)
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02-02-10 10:42 AM #58
Milwaukee Bucks - Spread: 9.5 (60.56%)
Milwaukee Bucks / Orlando Magic - Under: 195 (71.36%)
Toronto Raptors - Spread: -1 (71.35%)
Toronto Raptors / Indiana Pacers - Under: 219 (60.11%)
Oklahoma City Thunder - Spread: -1 (70.62%)
Golden State Warriors / Houston Rockets - Under: 218.5 (77.80%)
Detroit Pistons / New Jersey Nets - Under: 183.5 (70.17%)
Memphis Grizzlies - Spread: 10.5 (62.55%)
Memphis Grizzlies / Cleveland Cavaliers - Over: 200 (63.91%)
Chicago Bulls - Spread: -7.5 (77.84%)
Atlanta Hawks / Oklahoma City Thunder - Over: 192.5 (57.83%)
Detroit Pistons - Spread: -2.5 (55.65%)
Revised because Raptors +1 line doesn't exist.
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02-02-10 10:47 AM #59
A lot of these bets look pretty square today - (raptors -1, Bulls -7.5, Grizz + 10.5) - I liked the picks last week because they were going against the grain; we'll see how today works out.
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02-03-10 07:19 AM #60
Lots of red from last night - it was an odd night for picking teams if you were basing your opinion on past performances, and, as expected, the square picks didn't pan out. Originally Posted by djiddish98
I'm going to revise the methodology a bit to try and capture a better picture of where a pick is - I intend to run the sim with 3 different weights - a "slow weight", that weighs recent performance only slightly more than past performance; A regular weight, which is the weighting system I've done in the past; and a "fast weight" which is the system that puts a lot of emphasis on recent performance.
If a game can pass these 3 tests, then it should be played - last night's games still would have gone 3-4, but I think this is a better method for judging picks. Also, make sure the public isn't on your side
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