[Seto]

Miami getting obliterated in Portland. Hornets will lead the division tonight.

Only problem is they have now worked through the easy part of their schedule and have a much tougher stretch coming up. 3 games against awful teams but 4 on the road against the Cavs, Raptors, Wizards, Celtics. They'll have to go at least 2-2 in those games, possibly 3-1.

Very frustrating Atlanta has won a number of road games I'd hoped they would lose in the last month. Twice at Detroit, at Utah, at LAC, at Chicago, at Washington. Very much thought they'd be out of the race by now in early March but credit to them for turning around their fortunes I guess. Definitely feel like Miami has at least 2 more losses left in them given their schedule but Atlanta may only have 1 (they could actually win out) which is a bit scary.

[Seto]

massive win? calm down, it's just 1 game; a half game for each.

Huh? Any individual win for a team over a direct opponent is a 2 game swing, not 1 game. 1 for winning and 1 for not losing.

If they had lost that game they'd be a game behind instead of a game ahead in the loss column. And given they don't have the tiebreaker, they would have had to make up 2 games instead of just matching the Heat the rest of the way. It makes all the difference in the world.

[IBetYou]

The reason it's not a massive win is they earned it -it takes a physical toll. Case in point they lost their next one at home to the nuggets, and the HEAT won their next one vs the Cavs. It's not a 2-horse race anyway.

[Seto]

The reason it's not a massive win is they earned it -it takes a physical toll. Case in point they lost their next one at home to the nuggets, and the HEAT won their next one vs the Cavs. It's not a 2-horse race anyway.

If they had lost it would have taken a physical toll too, unless they had given up when they went down 15 in the first half. It was a hard fought game which is what it was supposed to be. If they had lost it, things wouldn't look nearly as good now. Let's not forget these wins give a team confidence too. You could argue that win was a sign of things to come against the Spurs a few days later. I'm pretty sure the Denver game was mostly complacency.

As of now I would say Atlanta is the greater danger. I spent most of the early season thinking Atlanta was the greater danger, then the past month thinking it was Miami and now I'm back to Atlanta.

[IBetYou]

The way I see it they can afford two more losses.

[unitedlad]

Ladbrokes has them at 25/1 when all other books have it at around 7/1.

Charlotte have an easier run in than Hawks but tougher than Miami. Need Orlando to at least split those Miami meetings. Still a chance for Hornets to pull it out.

Sprinkled £50 on it.

[Seto]

Ladbrokes has them at 25/1 when all other books have it at around 7/1.

Charlotte have an easier run in than Hawks but tougher than Miami. Need Orlando to at least split those Miami meetings. Still a chance for Hornets to pull it out.

Sprinkled £50 on it.

There's a chance yeah, probably better than a 25/1 chance. But it's gonna be real tough.

Atlanta and Miami both need to lose 2 more times and Charlotte needs to win out basically. If Charlotte loses once, Atlanta needs to lose out and Miami needs to lose 3 out of 4, it's not completely impossible but seems unlikely. So I'm goign by the fact that Charlotte needs to win their last 4 games, only 1 of them is against a winning team but it's a back to back on the road @ Boston so no doubt it will be tough.

Miami could easily lose their last 2 games @ Detroit and @ Boston.

Atlanta is the tougher one - they need to lose at home to Boston and @ Cleveland. So basically, the Cavs need to play their guys. What we are hoping for is that Toronto wins vs Indiana and at New York, and the Cavs lose in Chicago (this team is so dumb they may actually start winning now that it's useless). This way, the Cavs will have to play their guys against Atlanta to avoid needing to wait for the final day to clinch the #1 seed. In that sense, the Raptors' loss to the Hawks yesterday is a double blow cause it gives the Hawks a win and moves Cleveland closer to clinching. Of course, there is that last game in Washington. I think the Wizards will actually try hard in that game having lost in the playoffs last year to the Hawks. But John Wall is apparently close to being shut down for the season and it would be tough to imagine Atlanta slipping up needing just to win that one game to get homecourt.

I'd say 35% chance Hornets win out, 60% chance Miami loses at least 2, 30% chance Atlanta loses at least 2. So a 6% chance to win. Still better than 25/1 I guess.

[Seto]

Couple of favourable results yesterday but the real determination of whether this still has a chance is tonight. Boston HAS to win this game.

[rm18]

congrats hawks

[Seto]

Well this shit is over. It was a fun ride though, definitely worth a shot at that price. No regrets about not cashing out either, the fact that 2 other teams were in the race made it impossible to cash out without giving up over 70% of the potential winnings which I wasn't prepared to do.

I could've used a win here given my shitty season to this point but I guess it was just one of those regular seasons where things don't go right. Now it's time to do work in the playoffs and hopefully right the wrongs.

[louielouie]

Seto you got to hedge when you can guarantee 10+ units!!

[Seto]

Seto you got to hedge when you can guarantee 10+ units!!

I'm not surrendering 5000/7000 of my profits on something I think has a good chance to win. The Hawks got hot late and won a lot of tough games on the road. Shit happens.

The point is the only time you should (in theory) hedge is when you've changed your mind on a bet. The only other acceptable situation is if it's life changing money on the line and you so to speak "can't afford to lose". 2 grand is not life changing money for me.

I guarantee you people who hedge all the time when they get into winning positions lose far more on pointless hedges than they win when their original bet loses.

[louielouie]

as long as you stick to a philosophy - i hedge at least once a week and havent had a losing year yet knock on wood

[IBetYou]

as long as you stick to a philosophy - i hedge at least once a week and havent had a losing year yet knock on wood

That's nice if the goal is to not have a losing year. My goal is to maximize profits, hence I don't auto-hedge.

As for the bet itself... I regret it. Weak team. I like Batum. K.Walker has gotten pretty good. Jefferson is washed up.

[Seto]

That's nice if the goal is to not have a losing year. My goal is to maximize profits, hence I don't auto-hedge.

As for the bet itself... I regret it. Weak team. I like Batum. K.Walker has gotten pretty good. Jefferson is washed up.

What price did you bet it at? If you got at least +1000 I don't see any reason to have regrets. They were in the lead with 7 games to go. Shit happens.

[IBetYou]

Got them at 8/1. They were lucky to be in the lead with 7 games to go. They weren't ul not to win it. 10/1 pfft.. that's an accurate price. HEAT lost Chris Bosh (which was when I bet) and they still did better.

[Seto]

Got them at 8/1. They were lucky to be in the lead with 7 games to go. They weren't ul not to win it. 10/1 pfft.. that's an accurate price. HEAT lost Chris Bosh (which was when I bet) and they still did better.

Don't think I said they were unlucky not to win it. But they had a shot. When you're betting at those types of odds all you're asking for is to have a shot going into the last few games and we had that here.

But you could actually argue they were unlucky as they were banged up pretty bad for a good month and lost a lot of ground during that month. Atlanta never has anyone injured, it's quite amazing. In the last 2 years them and the Warriors somehow haven't had one key guy miss a long stretch.

Now obviously you'll say the Heat lost Bosh. The thing is the Hornets collapsed when they had injuries, and the Heat probably have a similar record with and without Bosh. Now are they a better team with him and would they probably need him to make a run at Cleveland, absolutely, but I'm not sure their regular season record would be THAT much better had he not gone down. I'm positive the Hornets would have a better record if Batum hadn't been either injured or playing hurt for a month - month and a half, along with the other injuries that sustained during that time.

Regardless it's time to move on to the postseason.

[IBetYou]

I think Splitter is a 'key guy'. They're paying him about 10mil a year. Never much of a shot-blocker but really solid otherwise. They've missed him.

- I think the Spurs will miss him this postseason too. One of those players no one will remember is absent because so much has happened since. They no longer have anyone remotely like him.

[Ballin24]

Hawks were playing through injuries early in the season Jeff Teague and Kyle korver both had ankle issues. Tiago splitter was a huge loss also luckily they signed kris Humphries last month and he has filled in nicely.

[Seto]

You guys seem to have misunderstood what I meant by "key player". Splitter is a contributor (maybe you could argue a key contributor) not a key player. At least not the way I define it.

Splitter is what, the 7th or 8th best player on the Hawks?

What I meant is an injury to Teague, Korver, Millsap, Horford for at least 3 weeks. It typically happens to every team at some point.

It's like saying Mike Miller was a key player in Miami's title winning teams.

[rm18]

Hornets blew the division the first three games of the year, 1 loss to Miami and 2 to the Hawks all close games

[Jaak Varblane]

I think it was 2 months ago or so, but someone in the forum made a post something like "Hornets to win division biggest lock of the season".
10 minutes after I saw the post, the bet was placed.
No regrets as well.

[Seto]

Fukkers are taunting me now

It would just sum up the season if I lost this because of a tiebreaker.

[Seto]

Yup, this season has just been THAT cruel for me.

Unreal. What the fukk did I do to deserve this? I mean seriously.

[No coincidences]

Yup, this season has just been THAT cruel for me.

Unreal. What the fukk did I do to deserve this? I mean seriously.

Holy shit, man.

[t-wizzle]

You were robbed. All you can do is forget about this and focus on the playoffs. I have a feeling when it's all said and done this bet will be just a blip on the radar, overshadowed by a successful playoff run.

[Seto]

You were robbed. All you can do is forget about this and focus on the playoffs. I have a feeling when it's all said and done this bet will be just a blip on the radar, overshadowed by a successful playoff run.

Yeah man this bet and just generally this whole regular season has been a pain in the ass but as you say, it can all be overshadowed by a successful playoff run. Anyway I do bet more in the playoffs.

Looking forward to seeing the lines out tomorrow. I was kinda hoping for different matchups in the East but we'll make do with what's on the board.

[IBetYou]

Let it go kid. They're a weak team. They had numerous chances and failed every time.

[Ballin24]

Hawks cost me 2 thousand dollars tonight with that pathetic display of basketball could have won 9 grand from a pre season parlay smh.

[IBetYou]

Hornets won their last two to make it look closer than it was. Both games meaningless. They went from 6th to 6th!

[IBetYou]

Hawks had nothing to play for really. THey had already locked up home court in the 1st round, which is what they were after.

[Seto]

Let it go kid. They're a weak team. They had numerous chances and failed every time.

Why are you being such a jerk? Seriously. Plus which you're completely missing the point. They by far exceeded any expectations anyone had for them and were damn near close to winning this thing.

[Seto]

Hawks had nothing to play for really. THey had already locked up home court in the 1st round, which is what they were after.

They were playing for the #3 seed and avoiding Cleveland in the 2nd round.

Hornets, Heat, Hawks all played to win each of their last 3 games. So yeah, sorry, you can't chalk this up as a "meaningless late attempt to make it look close". All these games had meaning for those teams.

This isn't like betting a team to win the Premier League title, they're up 10 points with 3 games to go and tank their last 3 games and end up only winning the league by 1. In this case yes it would be a meaningless comeback. In this case - absolutely not.

Anyway you seem to be very keen on being a bit of a jerk about this, which I guess is cool, it's not like I'm never a jerk to people on this site. Let's just move on.

[IBetYou]

You're very sensitive. You already said it's time to move onto the postseason, and then you came back to cry about it again. I think it was a bad bet, you think it was a good bet. Seems you only want your point of view.

But we agree it's time to move on. Lets...