The game they have the best chance to win is probably game 4 but I think the Warriors take both and end it in game 5. The Spurs played 2 atrocious games (bar the last 4-5 minutes of game 1) to start the finals last year pretty much exactly like Golden State just did and we know what happened there (also remember Leonard playing 2 subpar games kinda like Curry just did). This series pretty much has the same feel. Cleveland is so overmatched it's not even funny, and sooner or later that will show. They perhaps have more hunger than that Miami team last year but hunger can only take you so far against a superior team.
Expect most guys to disagree but that's ok.