1. #1
    STAX
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    Should I try to middle this? 16 to 1 parlay, last leg is SA/LAC series

    I think this is a great spot to try and middle... Id love to grab Spurs +3.5 if I can get it at -120 or lower. Current line is Spurs +2 (-110)... I think game is as close to a 50/50 game as possible, and I firmly believe its gonna go down to the wire. Any chance to get Spurs +3.5 at -120? I'd throw $400 on it with a decent shot at hitting both bets, what u all think?

    304448882-1 4/16/15 10:27pm $50.00 $809.00 Pending 8 Team Parlay
    Win 4/18/15 12:35pm NBA Basketball 781 Washington Wizards (Series) +160* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Toronto Raptors (Series)
    Win 4/18/15 3:35pm NBA Basketball 784 Golden State Warriors (Series) -4000* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> New Orleans Pelicans (Series)
    Win 4/18/15 7:05pm NBA Basketball 786 Chicago Bulls (Series) -700* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Milwaukee Bucks (Series)
    Win 4/18/15 9:35pm NBA Basketball 788 Houston Rockets (Series) -280* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Dallas Mavericks (Series)
    Win 4/19/15 3:05pm NBA Basketball 790 Cleveland Cavaliers (Series) -3500* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Boston Celtics (Series)
    Win 4/19/15 5:35pm NBA Basketball 792 Atlanta Hawks (Series) -1250 <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Brooklyn Nets (Series)
    Win 4/19/15 8:05pm NBA Basketball 794 Memphis Grizzlies (Series) -190* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Portland Trail Blazers (Series)
    Pending 4/19/15 10:35pm NBA Basketball 796 Los Angeles Clippers (Series) +145* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> San Antonio Spurs (Series)

    Im not worried about losing the bet, I think trying for a middle here is a huge opportunity... Would you take the 2.5 at -120? Or hold out for 3.5?

  2. #2
    Jrod124
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    let it ride, it's $50 and u have been hot with these parlays

  3. #3
    sourtwist
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    I would, but there will soon be fukkbags coming into the thread to tell you that you should have left out the play that you are hedging if you didn't like the play to begin with.

  4. #4
    Vegas39
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    Unless $50 is life altering let it ride

  5. #5
    MickeyMan
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    Get it live at least don't pay -120 juice on a hedge

  6. #6
    STAX
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    OK, #1 its not a hedge. A hedge would be betting SA ML. I want to win BOTH BETS!! Thats the goal here...

  7. #7
    jjgold
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    stax play to win

  8. #8
    STAX
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    A little math:

    I think this is a true 50/50 game... I think a good 25% of the time this is a 3 point game either way. So 12.5% of the time S.A. loses by 3 pts or less.


    1. Letting it ride:

    50% of the time I lose $50
    50% of the time I win $809

    +809 - 50 = +759 * (.5) = +379.50

    EV = +$379.50


    2. Middle by betting $480 on Spurs +3.5 at (-120): $480 to win $400

    37.5% of the time I win the parlay (+809) and lose the middle bet (-480)= +329
    12.5% of the time I win BOTH BETS: (+809) + (+400) = +1209
    50% of the time I win the middle bet (+400) and lose the parlay (-50): +350

    (+329) * (.375)= +123
    (+350) * (.5)= +175
    (+1209) *(.125)= +151

    123+175+151=+449

    EV =+449

    Thats a $70 difference in EV...
    Last edited by STAX; 05-01-15 at 11:46 PM.

  9. #9
    STAX
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    Any thoughts on me believing this is a 3 point game 25% of the time? Too high or too low of a percentage?

  10. #10
    STAX
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    even if we change it to a 3 point game only 10% of the time:

    50% I win the middle bet (+400) and lose the parlay (-50): (+350)
    45% I win the parlay (+809) and lose the middle (-480): (+329)
    5% I win both bets: (+1209)

    (+350) * (.5) = +175
    (+329) * (.45)= +148
    (+1209) * (.05)= +60

    175+148+60=383

    EV= +383

    Still a $5 increase in EV...

  11. #11
    Seto
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    Quote Originally Posted by sourtwist View Post
    I would, but there will soon be fukkbags coming into the thread to tell you that you should have left out the play that you are hedging if you didn't like the play to begin with.
    Nah those "fukkbags" wouldn't really have a valid point. That point only works for guys wanting to hedge the last leg of a parlay that they knew would be the last leg from the getgo. Here we didn't know which series would end last.

  12. #12
    Seto
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    Quote Originally Posted by STAX View Post
    Any thoughts on me believing this is a 3 point game 25% of the time? Too high or too low of a percentage?
    Way too high to me when you factor in intentional fouling at the end.

    I understand the situation, I would be wanting to get greedy and get the middle too. It's also a case of if you don't get it you can sort of live with telling yourself that you missed out on a few bucks that you would've gotten with a normal hedge. But if you do a normal hedge and could've middled, you go crazy. It's silly but part of gambling is trying to keep your sanity too I guess.

    Good luck.

  13. #13
    The Kraken
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    Fukking gamble STAX!!!!

    i say go for it

    we live for this shit

  14. #14
    tony_come
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    Quote Originally Posted by STAX View Post
    A little math:

    I think this is a true 50/50 game... I think a good 25% of the time this is a 3 point game either way. So 12.5% of the time S.A. loses by 3 pts or less.


    1. Letting it ride:

    50% of the time I lose $50
    50% of the time I win $809

    +809 - 50 = +759 * (.5) = +379.50

    EV = +$379.50


    2. Middle by betting $480 on Spurs +3.5 at (-120): $480 to win $400

    37.5% of the time I win the parlay (+809) and lose the middle bet (-480)= +329
    12.5% of the time I win BOTH BETS: (+809) + (+400) = +1209
    50% of the time I win the middle bet (+400) and lose the parlay (-50): +350

    (+329) * (.375)= +123
    (+350) * (.5)= +175
    (+1209) *(.125)= +151

    123+175+151=+449

    EV =+449

    Thats a $70 difference in EV...
    We should ask you for winners, not the other way around

  15. #15
    STAX
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    Spurs are now +3 (-110)... I can get Spurs +3.5 (-120) right now, and Im gonna do it... Trying to middle this bitch... The more I think about it the more I know this is a no-brainer middle opportunity...

    wish me luck

  16. #16
    JameisBrady
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    damn, I wanted the clippers to win but now my +350 series bet on them is toast thanks to this mush --
    Last edited by shari91; 05-02-15 at 08:06 PM.

  17. #17
    Samfourteen
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    Good luck Stax. Good shit

  18. #18
    goduke
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    i would hedge now live. clippers without chris paul

  19. #19
    STAX
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    Middle looking to come down to the wire!

  20. #20
    Samfourteen
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    Ur gonna be the shit when this hits!!!

  21. #21
    STAX
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    Tried to log into 5Dimes and throw $50 on this going to overtime but site must be really busy with fight about to start... taking forever to log in. Not betting it, but I think this is going OT... probably +400 or so but oh well

  22. #22
    STAX
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    please hold!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  23. #23
    STAX
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    BABOOOOOOMM!!!!

    great feeling...
    Nomination(s):
    This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: The Kraken

  24. #24
    actiondan
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    Fuk ya, nice hit

  25. #25
    badgerguy
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    Good job!

  26. #26
    badgerguy
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    Quote Originally Posted by STAX View Post
    Tried to log into 5Dimes and throw $50 on this going to overtime but site must be really busy with fight about to start... taking forever to log in. Not betting it, but I think this is going OT... probably +400 or so but oh well
    Getting internal error on Bovada as well. Betonline seems to be working fine.

  27. #27
    STAX
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    thanks guys... thinking of throwing all 1200 on Mayweather in 12 rounds... pays about even money...

  28. #28
    badgerguy
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    Quote Originally Posted by STAX View Post
    thanks guys... thinking of throwing all 1200 on Mayweather in 12 rounds... pays about even money...
    GO GO GO! Im on it as well, although for well less than $1200

  29. #29
    STAX
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    Quote Originally Posted by badgerguy View Post
    GO GO GO! Im on it as well, although for well less than $1200
    307493064-1 5/2/15 11:00pm $859.00 $885.00 Pending 5/2/15 11:00pm Props Fighting 111 Mayweather Jr wins by 12 round decision +103* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Not Mayweather Jr by 12 round decision

    Fuggit...
    Points Awarded:

    The Kraken gave STAX 1 Betpoint(s) for this post.


  30. #30
    The Kraken
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    GL buddy

    Probably the best bet unless you got in on Mayweather very early

  31. #31
    STAX
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    Thanks, I dont know shit about boxing, just think Mayweather wins. never lost vrs a guy with 5 losses... and I know Mayweather title bouts usually go the distance

  32. #32
    GunShard
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    Nice bet.

  33. #33
    The Giant
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    Great job, Stax.


  34. #34
    STAX
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    what happens if fight ends in a draw? bet is a push?

  35. #35
    STAX
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    this has got to be a mayweather win... draw at worst but even that would be a crime

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