1. #1
    STAX
    STAX's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-01-13
    Posts: 3,718

    Cavs by 1, 2, or 3 points tonight? Middle try

    I bet $55 on the Cavs at pickem (-110) last night... then saw Bulls +3 (-110) this afternoon... so I bet the same amount on Bulls +3. So I either...

    a) win $100 (Cavs win by 1 or 2)
    b) win $50 (Cavs win by 3)
    c) lose $5 (any other result)

    Good play? I gotta believe a 3 pt or less Cavs win happens more than 6% of the time (assuming 1, 2, and 3 point wins as equal chance of happening), which is the breakeven point.

  2. #2
    44 Mag
    44 Mag's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 10-14-13
    Posts: 34,470
    Betpoints: 13170

    Quote Originally Posted by STAX View Post
    I bet $55 on the Cavs at pickem (-110) last night... then saw Bulls +3 (-110) this afternoon... so I bet the same amount on Bulls +3. So I either...

    a) win $100 (Cavs win by 1 or 2)
    b) win $50 (Cavs win by 3)
    c) lose $5 (any other result)

    Good play? I gotta believe a 3 pt or less Cavs win happens more than 6% of the time (assuming 1, 2, and 3 point wins as equal chance of happening), which is the breakeven point.
    The Cav's have not had a three point win or loss since 12/04/14. They beat the Knicks in New York: 90-87. BOL tonight.

  3. #3
    STAX
    STAX's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-01-13
    Posts: 3,718

    Quote Originally Posted by 44 Mag View Post
    The Cav's have not had a three point win or loss since 12/04/14. They beat the Knicks in New York: 90-87. BOL tonight.
    and if you go from 12/4 to the beginning of the season, 5 out of 17 total games for the Cavs were decided 3 points or less. none of this matters much though. Cavs/Bulls always are close, and they went into OT once already this year. Remember it only has to happen around 1 out of 20 times for it to be profitable. Im willing to guess that any time you can get a 3 point gap at the same price you should take it...

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