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Early Winner for the Tuesday Night TNT Game... Rockets vs. Suns
Over 215
Two teams that don't mind an uptempo affair. Two teams that are missing big men in the middle, meaning less presence in the paint to deter players from driving to the cup. Guard driven game with cats that like to skate up and down the floor and jack the coconut. Don't over-think this one. The scoreboard operator will need an extra Red Bull on hand.
Yes, let's get it! I'm tailing. I'm ice cold right. I've lost all confidence in my ability to cap.Originally Posted by Eddy Munny
No big men in the middle can make an under the play as well - fewer put backs, dunks, and easy layups. A lot of these guys are happy to shoot the jump shot, and Houston is playing better defense this year. I like plumlee and motiejunas though, and with phoenix at home...I like it I just don't know how much. That and Houston +115 on national television - I think there may be some fckery afoot, I'm just unsure as to which direction.
You are creepy. Under it is. That's what my 107 year old grandma said who passed away July 1999.
Yes, in some instances in can. But in this case, I don't believe it does. Alex Len certainly wasn't an offensive staple in the middle for the Suns. I think his absence simply means less resistance when Harden, Ariza, etc. take it to the rack. On the flip side, Howard's absence definitely undermines Houston's defensive prowess and the Suns' army of athletic guards will find points around the rim a bit easier to come by. I think this more than makes up for the easy buckets Howard would have gotten down low. I also believe it amounts to better ball movement for the Rockets and generally more uptempo game without the obligation to feed the the big man on each possession. It also nullifies Dwight Howard as a liability at the charity stripe.
In addition, I like that both teams had a day off and the game is on TNT. I think that points to fresh legs on both teams and a high energy contest in general... which usually results in higher scoring. Any semblance of defensive competence in this contest would have to come from Houston, but being as they are the road team here, I believe the Suns will dictate the tempo out of the gate, and if the shots fall, Houston will simply have to oblige... and they are no stranger to high tempo games themselves.
I just think that there has to be prolonged cold shooting stretches in this game in order for it to stay under, and I'm not willing to risk money on that happening. I feel like the odds are stacked against the Under. I think even cold spells will be neutralized by guys getting to the free throw line on the regular. I'm liking this play more and more, and I'm liking that the line has moved to 217, no fishy static odds or RLM.
Take it to the bank!
Why is TNT having games today?
I'm not sure what you're on about, but I am sure that I don't care.
If fading my pick makes you feel like the bigger man, then by all means...
Your grandma probably died because her irresponsible grandson pissed away her pension on frivolous, illogical sports bets.
To Eddy: Houston actually scores more on the road than at home. With no Howard, they will have no choice but to score points if they want to win. Phoenix has been in a scoring funk , but their overall average in PPG is better than most. I would have to say over is the play here. BOL.
That's just how they roll.
I did decide to go with the over, got it at 215 early. Mainly I like the fact that it's in phoenix, they should control the tempo just as you said, if either team can keep from shooting under 40% I think this is solid. I think you're right on the money with almost everything you posted - let's make some money.
Isnt it kinda lazy capping to take over in any combination of OKC, Suns, Denver, Rockets, GS, Portland, LAC, and Toronto games?
That being said, Im on it, parlayed with Tennis from the AM.. With everyone on it and it being obvious, Im now considering hedging. If I do it will be a live bet.
Good Luck.
That's another reason I went ahead with the over, I can't see it being that far off the 215 pace - and the live number could potentially take off early. If so you might be able to get the under at 225 or 230 and hedge in a way that gives you a great chance to cash both bets.
Lazy? No... it's only lazy if you bet the Over in every one of those games you cited, not to mention, a losing proposition.
Take the Suns for instance... they have played UNDER the total in EVERY ONE OF THEIR LAST EIGHT GAMES. That's right, if you were blindly betting Suns Overs, you'd be in an 0-8 slump right now... and that includes games against reputable "over" teams like the Kings, Blazers, Warriors, Wizards, and Clippers.
So you see, just betting the Over in games with high scoring teams guarantees you nothing... because the total is set high, often to an inflated degree, to offset the public's penchant for betting Overs.
Just as with any betting angle, you have to pick your spots... and I'm picking mine tonight.
Good luck!
Thats 101 man. but the lazy part is just picking a night. u could pick all the wrong nights.. u didnt give one insightful reason why tonight is "the night" any night CAN be the night... But like I said this is lazy capping.Lazy? No... it's only lazy if you bet the Over in every one of those games you cited, not to mention, a losing proposition.
Take the Suns for instance... they have played UNDER the total in EVERY ONE OF THEIR LAST EIGHT GAMES. That's right, if you were blindly betting Suns Overs, you'd be in an 0-8 slump right now... and that includes games against reputable "over" teams like the Kings, Blazers, Warriors, Wizards, and Clippers.
So you see, just betting the Over in games with high scoring teams guarantees you nothing... because the total is set high, often to an inflated degree, to offset the public's penchant for betting Overs.
Just as with any betting angle, you have to pick your spots... and I'm picking mine tonight.
Good luck!
Had u said Suns have been under in their last 3 or 4 games, and lead the league in total PPG. Rockets likely to run with Howard out.. something like that. '
Dont get defensive. It is what it is. It can still be right or wrong. but its lazy.
Good luck
Wow, you obviously didn't even read the thread... and then you call me lazy? The irony is thick.
I've provided more reasoning in this thread alone than you have for your entire SBR tenure.
This last post of yours is hot garbage.
Haha. So defensive! hilarious. "agree with me or your terribly stupid" okay hoss. Good day.
I'm not defensive. The results speak for themselves. I think I made it perfectly clear that I played this pick with utmost confidence, and as we approach halftime, it looks like an easy winner.
It appears as though maybe you're the one being defensive for being called on a post with ZERO validity to it.
I doubt you'll find one other person in this thread that would side with your claim that I failed to provide any reasoning for my play. Like I said, you obviously didn't read the thread... either that, or you have the shortest term memory in the history of mankind.
Congrats Munny I cashed with you on the over .
Yessir, never in doubt.Congrats Munny I cashed with you on the over .
Gotta love hitting these "lazy" plays with 30 points to spare.
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