1. #1
    EaglesPhan36
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    EP36's Spitballin' NCAAB/NBA 2nd Halves

    Baller Alert with a thread to document the carnage.


    So I have been practicing this a bit the last week or so in the NBA, but will probably apply it more to NCAAB as I tend to follow it more than the pros.

    The basic premise is that at half-time, I count up the number of possessions using the formula FGAs + O.Rebs - Turnovers + .436 * FTAs for the NBA and .475 * FTAs for NCAAB.

    NCAAB you also add five to that final number to estimate possessions for the 2nd half due to excessive fouling as college hoops.

    These are not formulas of my own, but some I have seen shared around the Internet over the years.

    From there, I look at the # of points scored in the first half, tempo, FG%, fouling, etc. and match it against the # of possessions. Then, I look at the 2nd half total and look for the best edges. That usually means looking for games where the 2nd half total is set off by quite a bit from what the # of possessions and flow of the 1st half shows.

    End of the day, it is still a choice on which games to try and which games to skip. There is no magic number that says YES play this game. So I'm just spitballin' these as I go, no promises of failure or riches. Maybe it'll help along the way again this season for either fading or following purposes. Enjoy the show. These will be on Twitter also for ease of timeliness if you so care to follow as there is no telling which games my be picks on any given day. Same as my SBR handle.

    Be the Squirrel trying to get that Nut






    Last edited by EaglesPhan36; 11-05-14 at 06:54 PM.

  2. #2
    EaglesPhan36
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    11.25.14
    NBA: Timberwolves-Nets Under 104.5 @ -110
    Last edited by EaglesPhan36; 11-05-14 at 07:42 PM. Reason: Line Change

  3. #3
    Ra77er
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    Eagles I know we will never share a drink together....being a Braves fan along with the media making me dislike philly fans but I do like your style (prop betting, lowen etc), and I was tempted to roast you a little but I couldn't bring myself to do it. Welcome to the married life and good luck with these 2nd half wagers. I like the premise/formula/recipe behind it and will be highly interested to see how it turns out in cbb.

  4. #4
    EaglesPhan36
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    Thanks man


  5. #5
    EaglesPhan36
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    Mmmm not looking good so far on this one. Since this is still a training ground for me on this early in the season, keep that in mind. Gonna be some that are way off as hopefully I can fine tune this more and more. Was tough for me here. Looked at this Under and Celts-Raps Over, but part of the guesswork comes into guessing on shooting improvement or shooting dropoff.

  6. #6
    EaglesPhan36
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    NBA: Bulls-Bucks Over 95 @ -110

  7. #7
    lakerboy
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    i want to wish you good luck. congrats on the marriage. said shit in the past but i just want peace nowadays. good luck man

  8. #8
    EaglesPhan36
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    Thank you sir. Appears this first one, the worm has turned in our favor.

  9. #9
    EaglesPhan36
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    NBA: Hawks-Spurs Under 101.5 @ -115

  10. #10
    EaglesPhan36
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    NBA: Grizzlies-Suns Under 97 @ -105
    This will be a good test.

  11. #11
    EaglesPhan36
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    Yikes on this Spurs 4th quarter.

  12. #12
    EaglesPhan36
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    Wow magically stays under

  13. #13
    EaglesPhan36
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    NBA: Nuggets-Kings Over 103 @ -115

  14. #14
    EaglesPhan36
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    Heh. Don't remember the last two a couple of unders went my way in the last minute on the same day. Good Karma.

  15. #15
    EaglesPhan36
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    nba: 4-1 [+2.90]
    Last edited by EaglesPhan36; 11-06-14 at 09:32 AM.

  16. #16
    kidcudi92
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    Cashed with you on SAC/DEN, good call

  17. #17
    EaglesPhan36
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    11.6.14
    NBA: Spurs-Rockets Under 99.5 @ -110

  18. #18
    EaglesPhan36
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    Egads this quarter.

  19. #19
    EaglesPhan36
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    NBA: Mavericks-Blazers Under 104.5 @ -110

  20. #20
    EaglesPhan36
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    NBA: 5-2 [+2.80]
    Split last night. One quarter killed that Spurs-Rockets play & it was still pretty close at the end.

  21. #21
    Booya711
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    5-2 still a nice start EP...looking forward to see how this turns out...GL!

  22. #22
    EaglesPhan36
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    Thanks! Once NCAAB gets in flow, Fridays & Sundays will probably be my NBA days as NCAAB takes up about every other day of the week. At least that is my plan right now. Next Friday, I'm gonna try to tweak the college methodology by focusing on it during the marathon start to try & get an idea of how far off my method is or hopefully how close it is to working decently.

    It'll be interesting to try & balance both.

  23. #23
    EaglesPhan36
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    11.7.14
    NBA: Bulls-76ers Over 94 @ -110

  24. #24
    Ra77er
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  25. #25
    EaglesPhan36
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    NBA: Wizards-Raptors Over 95 @ -110
    Very interested to see this one play out. Have not applied this to blowouts much if any, so this is sort of a live beta test.

  26. #26
    The_Kid
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    Quote Originally Posted by EaglesPhan36 View Post
    NBA: Wizards-Raptors Over 95 @ -110
    Very interested to see this one play out. Have not applied this to blowouts much if any, so this is sort of a live beta test.
    Wizards shooting 12/43, so you figure that number goes up. Good luck, EP.

  27. #27
    EaglesPhan36
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    I think that is the problem in blowouts is that you can't expect anything to change specifically. My 1st thoughts are to stay away from blowouts, but I wanted to try a couple to see if this could apply or not. So far this one looks like not.

    Bulls-Sixers looking good though.

  28. #28
    jjgold
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    Toronto tough at home
    Wash needs Beal back

    Knicks whore shit as are Bucks and 76ers

    best of luck

  29. #29
    EaglesPhan36
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    Well damn that was close. Missed it by a couple points.

  30. #30
    EaglesPhan36
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    NBA: Mavericks-Jazz Under 101.5 @ -110

  31. #31
    EaglesPhan36
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    NBA: Cavs-Nuggets Over 105.5 @ -115

  32. #32
    EaglesPhan36
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    Productive night, 3-1.

  33. #33
    EaglesPhan36
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    nba: 8-3 [+5.70]

  34. #34
    EaglesPhan36
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    11.8.14
    NBA: Pelicans-Spurs Under 101 @ -110

  35. #35
    jjgold
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    Eagles style

    Gambling 1st and wife second

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