Posted this in the think tank, but maybe someone has a better idea here.

There's these few live places I know that offer 1x2 basketball lines that are sometimes stale. These are often (significantly) +ev, however I'm not sure of an accurate method for handicapping them correctly due to the unusual nature of 1x2 in basketball (you would lose if it ends in a tie at the end of regulation, i.e. going into overtime). So far I'm just taking vig free pinny closing and subtracting 3% from the moneyline's probability (didn't data crunch anything just my guesstimate from slight research) to get an estimate.

I'm assuming this is a heavily flawed since I'm sure a -2 spread game is not the same as a -12 spread game, and there should be (highly?) different % from NBA to euro league, where these are primarily offered, however this might change with the season starting since they did not offer odds on many games for the preseason.

I would assume going over past seasons and grouping similar spread games then averaging, or something along those lines would be best, but the limits for these are pretty insignificant, and I don't usually bet any basketball or know where to get bulk historical data (particularly for euro league), so with the low limits I don't want to invest much work into going over stats on a sport I don't know much about.

What I was wondering about was if there is a more accurate method I could use to properly estimate these %'s, something like an approx rule of thumb, if anyone with some knowledge has an inkling on, so I feel more comfortable in measuring the true line as opposed to my current method.?

Also unibet and willhill seem to offer 1x2 odds but they seem very juiced and I think they take them off if there is any significant line movement (and the odds on the draw seem too shaded in my uneducated opinion, vigfree ~6%), so I'm not sure if just taking their vig free odds for an estimate when a game is still available close to game time is a good method either.