-4.5 is a solid play. GS is on a mission to end their playoff drought, and the Mavs have nothing to play for. I'd be surprised if Nowitzki, Howard, and Terry played more than 25 min. apiece.
Why would AJ play any of his key players? If I understand correctly, they have 0 to play for, and why give Nelly another chance to scout Dallas in person (that would be the first round matchup, right)?
I think Avery will sit his key guys Wednesday night in Seattle. Tomorrow he will likely play Nowitzki, Howard and company around 20 min. to keep them sharp heading into the playoffs, similar to what Miami did tonight with Shaq and Wade. However, I'm sure they will sit the majority of the 2nd half.
Don't think scouting is a factor - Nelly already knows this Dallas team as well as anyone.
And yes, it will be the first round matchup unless the Lakers lose to Sac and GS wins its final 2 games, which would move GS up to 7.
If I understand correctly, the only way GS is missing the playoffs is if they lose last two games. The way they've been playing that's not very likely. I could see DAL giving it a shot in 1H, but not for full 48 minutes at playoff intensity.