Originally Posted by
Martinr
My 10 cents:
The OP is a parlay bettor, not a trader. He probably likes the rush of winning a large amount for a relatively small outlay, and having that live leg at the end is his aim. There's nothing really wrong with that for a recreational punter. He'll have his hits and misses, and he probably isn't interested in the maths involved with the multiplying juice, which makes parlays such a bad proposition for long term so-called professionals.
He should probably only hedge when things like team changes/injuries make his bet a different proposition than when he placed it.
Hedging shouldn't be a will I/won't I decision for parlay bettors when they only have one game left in the parlay to hit, and when they only want to hedge because the amount at stake is beyond their comfort zone. By doing so they are actually playing into the bookmaker's hand, and it defeats the purpose of the parlay.
Reading the above posts, there are quite a few who disagree with this thinking. Hedging parlays is a topic that often comes up though, and it's one that I'm interested in from a psychological viewpoint. I've been in the position myself where I've had to decide whether to hedge a parlay or not, and the contradicting forces at work when making the decision say a lot about the gambler's psyche (my psyche).
There is of course a form of betting that solely relies on hedging. It's called trading, which in short involves backing something at a high price, and laying it at a lower price. I'm not sure if North American bettors use betting exchanges, such as Betfair, but this type of trading can also be used at regular sports books. An example would have been backing Spurs to win the series after Game 2 at + odds, and then hedging the bet now. A trader places the first bet WITH EVERY INTENTION of laying off the bet at a certain time.
A punter can be both a trader and a gambler, but NOT AT THE SAME TIME. If he places a parlay as a gambler, then he should play it through as a gambler.
If he places a parlay as a trading strategy, then he should trade out every time, even if it means losing a portion of the original stake. He shouldn't change strategy halfway through, because he will end up confused, indecisive, chasing his tail, and in the long term it will likely be detrimental to his mental state and his bankroll.